美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国小麦展望：-美国小麦产量、库存上升，出口受挫-0613-27页.pdf

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美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国小麦展望：-美国小麦产量、库存上升，出口受挫-0613-27页.pdf
W
heat Outlook
Jen
nifer K. Bond
Olga Liefert
2019/20 Wheat Production, Feed and Residual
Lifted, Exports Continue to Face Headwinds
This month’s USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production report provided revised
winter wheat and desert durum production for 2019/20. On net, winter wheat is raised 6 million bushels
on improved yields. Production gains help to offset the effects of lower carryin stemming from increased
back-year exports and leading to reduced total supplies month-to-month. New crop all-wheat feed and
residual is increased by 50 million bushels on a sharp reduction in corn production and feeding (fig. 1).
Prospects for 2019/20 exports are not improved from the previous month and remain at 900 million
bushels. In 2019/20, recovery in European Union (EU) and Australia production and exportable
supplies creates formidable competition for U.S. wheat in global markets. On expectations for larger
crops, Russia and Ukraine exports are both raised a million tons this month and further inhibit growth in
U.S. exports in 2019/20.
0
5
00
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
E
nding stocks
F
eed and residual
Ex
ports
F
ood
S
eed
S
ource: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE.
F
igure 1: Both new and old crop U.S. wheat utilization are raised as ending stocks tighten
M
il. bu
Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report
N
ext release is
J
uly 15, 2019
W
HS-19f
|
J
une 13
,
201
9
In this report:
- Do
mestic Outlook
- I
nternational Outlook
Domestic Outlook
Domestic Changes at a Glance:
• U.S. Census Bureau trade data through April indicate a brisk pace of old crop shipments
in the fourth quarter and support a 25-million-bushel increase in the 2018/19 exports.
o Estimated total exports for the fourth quarter or the 2018/19 marketing year
exceeded expectations as the U.S. was able to capitalize on reduced exportable
supplies from the Black Sea region and more competitive export prices.
• Larger back year exports serve to lower 2018/19 ending stocks and carryin for the
2019/20 marketing year. Reduced carryin for 2019/20 is offset slightly growth in
projected wheat production.
• Winter wheat production for 2019/20 is raised 6 million bushels this month to 1,274.5
million on increased yields.
o USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) lifted hard red winter
(HRW) wheat production by more than 14 million bushels from the previous
forecast, more than offseting lower projected production for soft red winter
(SRW), down 6.3 million, and white winter wheat (down 1.8 million).
• Other spring wheat production is unchanged from the May forecast and will be re-
evaluated following the end of June release of the Acreage report.
• Forecast durum production for 2019/20 is cut slightly, down 194,000 bushels from the
previous projection on reduced desert durum production reported by NASS for Arizona.
• Carryin is reduced by more than production is increased, resulting in a net 19.2 million
bushel reduction in supplies, relative to the May projection.
• Total use for the new marketing year is raised 50 million bushels this month on a
significant expansion of projected feed and residual use.
o Wheat feed and residual use for 2019/20 is raised on sharp declines for both
corn production and corn feed and residual, which in turn supports a 50-cent
increase in the forecast season average corn price.
• The tighter wheat balance sheet for 2019/20 and a significant increase in the corn price
combine to lift the all-wheat season average farm price by 40 cents this month to $5.10
per bushel.
2
Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019
USDA, Economic Research Service
Table 1 - U.S. wheat supply and utilization at a glance, 2018/19 and 2019/20
Balance sheet
item
2018/19
June
2019/20
May
2019/20
June
Change from
previous
month
Comments
Supply, total Million bushels
May-June Marketing Year
(MY)
Beginning
stocks
1,098.9 1,126.8 1,101.8
-25.0
Carryin from 2018/19 is
lower on increased old crop
exports.
Production 1,884.5 1,896.9 1,902.7 5.8
New crop production is
raised 6 million bushels on
higher Hard Red Winter
wheat production that is not
offset by cuts to Soft Red
Winter and Winter White
wheat production
Imports
140.0
140.0
140.0
0.0
Supply, total 3,123.3 3,163.7 3,144.5 -19.2
Reduced carryin more than
offsets production gains,
resulting in lower total
supply in 2019/20.
Demand
Million bushels
Food
960.0
965.0
965.0
0.0
Seed
61.5
68.0
68.0
0.0
Feed and
residual
50.0 90.0 140.0
50.0
Feed and residual use for
2019/20 is raised 50 million
bushels on a sizable cut to
corn production and
associated reduction in corn
feeding.
Domestic, total 1,071.5 1,123.0 1,173.0 50.0
Domestic use is raised 50
million bushels on expanded
feed and residual use.
Exports
950.0
900.0
900.0
0.0
Use, total 2,021.5 2,023.0 2,073.0 50.0
Total use is lifted 50 million
bushels on expanded
domestic utilization.
Ending stocks 1,101.8 1,140.7 1,071.5 -69.2
Reduced supplies and
increased domestic use
combine to tighten the
balance sheet. A tighter all-
wheat balance sheet
supports a month-to-month
increase in the all-wheat
price, raised 40 cents this
month to $5.10 per bushel.
3
Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019
USDA, Economic Research Service
2019 Winter Wheat Production Nudged Higher on Improved
Prospects for Hard Red Winter Wheat
This month, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the second survey-
based winter wheat production forecast for the 2019/20 marketing year. Farmer responses
collected by NASS between May 25 and June 6 inform projections of winter wheat area
harvested, yields, and production-by-State. In NASS’ June release of the Crop Production
report, winter wheat yields for 2019 are projected at 50.5 bushels per acre, up from 50.3
bushels estimated in May and comparable to the 47.9 bushels per acre that farmers realized in
2018.
Win
ter wheat yields are improved in a number of key States—most notably, Kansas, where
yields are estimated to have increased 1 bushel per acre from the May forecast. If realized, this
will be the second-highest winter wheat yield on record for Kansas, behind 2016 when 57
bushels per acre were realized. The projection for near record-high winter wheat yields is
attributable to relatively mild, though wet, growing conditions that have become increasingly
favorable as showers abated and weather has warmed. As of June 9, NASS reports that 64 of
U.S. winter wheat acreage was reported to be in “good” to “excellent” condition, 26 percentage
points above the same time in 2018.
On June 12, the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Agricultural Weather and Assessments
Group released their map of the U.S. vegetative health index (VHI) based on data provided by
NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (fig. 2). The VHI map clearly
shows better VHI values across the broad winter wheat production belt and support NASS’
finding that the vast majority of winter wheat rated “good” to “excellent.” Also visible is the
emergent drought conditions in the Northern Plains near the Canadian border. A lower VHI in
this key region of spring wheat production is also consistent with a slower-than-normal pace of
planting.
Developmentally, the 2019 winter wheat crop is slightly behind last year’s pace with 83 percent
of the crop headed as of the week ending June 9 compared to 90 percent in 2018 and a 5-year
average of 91 percent. Winter wheat production for 2019 is currently forecast at 1,274.5 million
bushels, up less than 1 percent from the May forecast and up about 90 million bushels (less
than 1 percent) from 2018.
4
Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019
USDA, Economic Research Service
Figure 2: U.S. vegetation health index affirms NASS winter wheat condition ratings
Sources: Dr. Felix Kogan et al, NOAA/NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research and USDA, World
Agricultural Outlook Board, Agricultural Weather and Assessments Group.
Net
gains in winter wheat production, month-to-month, are supported by a 14-million-bushel
increase in hard red winter (HRW) wheat production. Yield hikes in a key HRW-producing State,
Kansas, along with yield gains for Oklahoma and Montana, help to support the increase. Based
on improving yields, HRW production is up 2 percent from the May forecast to 794 million
bushels.
For ot
her classes of winter wheat, including SRW and both hard and soft white winter wheat,
NASS projects production down month-to-month. Yield reductions are reported for States where
SRW production is concentrated (fig. 3) and include Missouri (down 5 bushels per acre from
May), Ohio (down 6 bushels), Indiana (down 4 bushels), and Illinois (down 2 bushels). Areas of
concentrated SRW production have been beset by persistent rains and cooler-than-normal
temperatures, reportedly resulting in delayed maturation and some crop stress, as evidenced by
these month-to-month yield declines. Estimates for harvested area by class will be updated in
5
Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019
USDA, Economic Research Service
5
Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019
USDA, Economic Research Service

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