【免费】美国农业部-美股-农业行业-美国小麦展望：-美国小麦产量、库存上升，出口受挫-0613-27页.pdf资源-CSDN文库

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heat Outlook

Jen

nifer K. Bond

Olga Liefert

2019/20 Wheat Production, Feed and Residual

Lifted, Exports Continue to Face Headwinds

This month’s USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production report provided revised

winter wheat and desert durum production for 2019/20. On net, winter wheat is raised 6 million bushels

on improved yields. Production gains help to offset the effects of lower carryin stemming from increased

back-year exports and leading to reduced total supplies month-to-month. New crop all-wheat feed and

residual is increased by 50 million bushels on a sharp reduction in corn production and feeding (fig. 1).

Prospects for 2019/20 exports are not improved from the previous month and remain at 900 million

bushels. In 2019/20, recovery in European Union (EU) and Australia production and exportable

supplies creates formidable competition for U.S. wheat in global markets. On expectations for larger

crops, Russia and Ukraine exports are both raised a million tons this month and further inhibit growth in

U.S. exports in 2019/20.

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

nding stocks

eed and residual

ports

ood

eed

ource: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE.

igure 1: Both new and old crop U.S. wheat utilization are raised as ending stocks tighten

il. bu

Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report

ext release is

uly 15, 2019

HS-19f

une 13

201

In this report:

- Do

mestic Outlook

- I

nternational Outlook

Domestic Outlook

Domestic Changes at a Glance:

• U.S. Census Bureau trade data through April indicate a brisk pace of old crop shipments

in the fourth quarter and support a 25-million-bushel increase in the 2018/19 exports.

o Estimated total exports for the fourth quarter or the 2018/19 marketing year

exceeded expectations as the U.S. was able to capitalize on reduced exportable

supplies from the Black Sea region and more competitive export prices.

• Larger back year exports serve to lower 2018/19 ending stocks and carryin for the

2019/20 marketing year. Reduced carryin for 2019/20 is offset slightly growth in

projected wheat production.

• Winter wheat production for 2019/20 is raised 6 million bushels this month to 1,274.5

million on increased yields.

o USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) lifted hard red winter

(HRW) wheat production by more than 14 million bushels from the previous

forecast, more than offseting lower projected production for soft red winter

(SRW), down 6.3 million, and white winter wheat (down 1.8 million).

• Other spring wheat production is unchanged from the May forecast and will be re-

evaluated following the end of June release of the Acreage report.

• Forecast durum production for 2019/20 is cut slightly, down 194,000 bushels from the

previous projection on reduced desert durum production reported by NASS for Arizona.

• Carryin is reduced by more than production is increased, resulting in a net 19.2 million

bushel reduction in supplies, relative to the May projection.

• Total use for the new marketing year is raised 50 million bushels this month on a

significant expansion of projected feed and residual use.

o Wheat feed and residual use for 2019/20 is raised on sharp declines for both

corn production and corn feed and residual, which in turn supports a 50-cent

increase in the forecast season average corn price.

• The tighter wheat balance sheet for 2019/20 and a significant increase in the corn price

combine to lift the all-wheat season average farm price by 40 cents this month to $5.10

per bushel.

Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019

USDA, Economic Research Service

2019 Winter Wheat Production Nudged Higher on Improved

Prospects for Hard Red Winter Wheat

This month, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the second survey-

based winter wheat production forecast for the 2019/20 marketing year. Farmer responses

collected by NASS between May 25 and June 6 inform projections of winter wheat area

harvested, yields, and production-by-State. In NASS’ June release of the Crop Production

report, winter wheat yields for 2019 are projected at 50.5 bushels per acre, up from 50.3

bushels estimated in May and comparable to the 47.9 bushels per acre that farmers realized in

2018.

Win

ter wheat yields are improved in a number of key States—most notably, Kansas, where

yields are estimated to have increased 1 bushel per acre from the May forecast. If realized, this

will be the second-highest winter wheat yield on record for Kansas, behind 2016 when 57

bushels per acre were realized. The projection for near record-high winter wheat yields is

attributable to relatively mild, though wet, growing conditions that have become increasingly

favorable as showers abated and weather has warmed. As of June 9, NASS reports that 64 of

U.S. winter wheat acreage was reported to be in “good” to “excellent” condition, 26 percentage

points above the same time in 2018.

On June 12, the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Agricultural Weather and Assessments

Group released their map of the U.S. vegetative health index (VHI) based on data provided by

NOAA/NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (fig. 2). The VHI map clearly

shows better VHI values across the broad winter wheat production belt and support NASS’

finding that the vast majority of winter wheat rated “good” to “excellent.” Also visible is the

emergent drought conditions in the Northern Plains near the Canadian border. A lower VHI in

this key region of spring wheat production is also consistent with a slower-than-normal pace of

planting.

Developmentally, the 2019 winter wheat crop is slightly behind last year’s pace with 83 percent

of the crop headed as of the week ending June 9 compared to 90 percent in 2018 and a 5-year

average of 91 percent. Winter wheat production for 2019 is currently forecast at 1,274.5 million

bushels, up less than 1 percent from the May forecast and up about 90 million bushels (less

than 1 percent) from 2018.

Wheat Outlook, WHS-19f, June 13, 2019

USDA, Economic Research Service

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