美国农业部-美股-农业行业-饲料展望：对当前和过去一年的资产负债表做了几项调整-0114-16页.pdf

A

pproved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board

Fe

ed Outlook

T

om Capehart

Olga Liefert

David Olson

Several Changes to Current and Past Year’s Balance Sheets

186 million.

Corn trade for the October-September international trade year (TY) is virtually unchanged, although

their corn export projections grow, while U.S. corn exports for 2019/20 are cut 4 percent this month.

Increased competition limits U.S. exports, despite expected record global corn trade. Global trade in

sorghum and barley are projected higher.

S

ource: Economic Research Service Feed Grain Database, U.S. Dept. of Agricutlure.

Figure 1

C

orn supply and use: percent change from last month's forecast (2019/20)

- Do

- I

acre, on the farmer-reported survey conducted by the National Agricultural Statistics Service

(NASS) during December, released in the NASS Crop Production report.

D

ecember 1 grain stocks of 11,389 million bushels, as reported in the NASS Grain Stocks, were

lower than anticipated.

NASS will re-survey operators who reported acreage not harvested in Michigan, Minnesota,

North Dakota, and Wisconsin in early spring and make updates as necessary.

2019/20 Disappearance Raised 155 Million Bushels

million. Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is lowered 20 million bushels with high fructose

60

80

0

Million acres

sales in early January since 2012/13.

With total use projected at 14,070 million bushels, ending stocks are pegged at 1,892 million

and stocks-to-use are projected slightly tighter at 13.4, compared with 13.7 last month.

For 2018/19, NASS revised harvested area made for an 80-million bushel reduction in

addition, September 1, 2019 stocks are revised upward by 106 million bushels to 2,221 million;

thus, implied feed and residual disappearance is down 186 million bushels relative to last

month.

bushels.

Note: Marketing year 2018/19 and 2019/20 are projected.

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, WASDE.

Figure 3

Feed and Residual Use: Four Feed Grains and Wheat

Feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat on a

September-August marketing year basis for 2019/20 is projected at 150.5 million tons, up from