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Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook

Michael McConnell, coordinator

David Olson, contributor

Higher Imports Raise Expected U.S. Sugar Stocks

for 2019/20

The U.S. Department of Agriculture increased volumes of the 2019/20 World Trade Organization

(WTO) raw and refined Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs), resulting in higher supplies and ending stocks

forecast for 2019/20. The projected ending stocks-to-use ratio is still expected to be historically tight,

but it is significantly higher than the previous month’s forecast.

Mexico’s sugarcane had an unprecedented area harvest rate during March, but it is still experiencing

low yields due to widespread drought conditions. Production for 2019/20 is raised slightly, allowing for

small additional supplies to be exported to both the United States and other destinations.

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

(est.)

2019/20

(proj.)

1,000 STRV

U.S. sugar supply, use, and ending stocks, 2006/07 to 2019/20

Ending stocks

Total supply Total use

Note: Short tons, raw value (STRV)

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.

Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook Report

Next release is May 18, 2020

SSS-M-380 | April 15, 2020

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-380, April 15, 2020

USDA, Economic Research Service

United States Outlook

Increased Imports Under Quota Programs Raise U.S. Sugar

Supplies

In the USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), U.S. sugar

supplies for 2019/20 are projected to total 13.699 million short tons, raw value (STRV)—a

547,000-STRV increase from the previous month’s tight market projection. With no changes

projected for U.S. sugar use, the stocks-to-use ratio is raised from last month’s level of 7.2

percent to 11.7 percent. This is still relatively tight by historical standards but closer to the

recent historical range.

Table 1: U.S. sugar: Supply and use, by fiscal year (Oct./Sept.), April 2020

Items

2019/20 2019/20

(forecast) (forecast)

Beginning stocks 1,876 2,008 1,783 1,702 1,822 1,617

Total production 9,293 8,999 8,038 8,430 8,163 7,292

Beet sugar 5,279 4,939 4,298 4,789 4,480 3,899

Cane sugar 4,014 4,060 3,740 3,641 3,683 3,393

Florida 1,983 2,005 2,100 1,799 1,819 1,905

Louisiana 1,862 1,907 1,513 1,689 1,730 1,372

Texas 169 147 127 153 134 115

Hawaii 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total imports 3,277 3,070 3,879 2,973 2,785 3,519

Tariff-rate quota imports 1,663 1,541 2,180 1,509 1,398 1,978

Other program imports 326 438 350 296 397 318

Non-program imports 1,287 1,092 1,349 1,168 990 1,224

Mexico 1,223 1,000 1,199 1,110 908 1,088

High-duty 64 91 150 58 83 136

Total supply 14,445 14,077 13,699 13,105 12,770 12,428

Total exports 170 35 35 154 31 32

Miscellaneous 82 28 0 75 26 0

Deliveries for domestic use 12,185 12,231 12,230 11,054 11,096 11,095

Transfer to sugar-containing products

for exports under re-export program 110 98 80 100 89 73

Transfer to polyhydric alcohol, feed, other alcohol 28 27 25 25 25 23

Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) sale for ethanol, other 0 0 0 0 0 0

Deliveries for domestic food and beverage use 12,048 12,106 12,125 10,930 10,982 11,000

Total use 12,438 12,294 12,265 11,283 11,153 11,127

Ending stocks 2,008 1,783 1,434 1,822 1,617 1,301

Private 2,008 1,783 1,434 1,822 1,617 1,301

Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Stocks-to-use ratio 16.14 14.50 11.70 16.14 14.50 11.70

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Sugar and Sweetener Outlook.

2018/19

(estimate)

2017/18

1,000 Short tons, raw value

1,000 Metric tons, raw value

2017/18

2018/19

(estimate)

nQsOmOuMuM8OaO9PtRrRtRqQjMqQtPiNnMsMbRmNoQuOoOsRxNnMmN

The increase in supply is primarily the result of policy actions taken by the Secretary of the U.S.

Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). On

April 1, the USDA increased the 2019/20 WTO raw sugar TRQ by 350,000 STRV and the

refined sugar TRQ by 200,000 STRV. On April 8, USTR allocated these increases, including the

country allocations for the raw sugar TRQ. It allocated part of the refined TRQ to Canada

(nearly 6,000 STRV) and the rest to the Global, first-come-first serve nations (194,000 STRV). It

also included a schedule of tranches for entry of the Global allocation, starting on April 13, 2020,

with 105,000 STRV of the additional allocation, with successively smaller tranches becoming

available every 2 weeks until June 29, 2020.

These action were taken to bring additional supplies to the U.S. sugar market in 2019/20, as

domestic production for 2019/20 is projected to be significantly lower due to poor weather

conditions—particularly during harvest for many sugarbeet-producing regions—and to fewer

imports from Mexico due to drought conditions in many of its sugarcane-producing regions.

Imports under quota programs are projected to be 2.180 million STRV in 2019/20, a 540,000-

STRV increase. The shortfall of the raw sugar TRQ is projected to be 84,000 STRV, a 44,000-

STRV increase from the March forecast. The increased shortfall represents some quantities of

the additional TRQ allocations as well as additional shortfalls from the initial allocations. No

shortfall is currently expected in the refined TRQ.

Imports from Mexico are projected to total 1.199 million STRV, a 34,000-STRV increase from

the previous month. The increase is due to adjustments to Mexico’s production forecast. High-

tier imports remain unchanged from the previous month at 150,000 STRV for 2019/20. Through

March, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) estimates that 62,000 STRV of high-tier imports

have entered the United States.

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-380, April 15, 2020

USDA, Economic Research Service

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