Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board
Approved by USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board
,
Rice Outlook
Nathan W. Childs, coordinator
U.S. Rice Export Forecasts Lowered for Both
2019/20 and 2020/21
There were several changes this month to both the 2019/20 and 2020/21 U.S. rice balance
sheets. For 2019/20, imports were raised, domestic use increased, and exports were lowered,
resulting in a 1.5-million-hundredweight (cwt) increase in the ending stocks forecast. For
2020/21, carryin, imports, and domestic use were revised up, while exports were lowered
slightly. On balance, these revisions resulted in a 2.5-million-cwt increase in the 2020/21 ending
stocks forecast. The 2020/21 U.S. season-average farm prices were unchanged from a month
earlier. In the global market, record production is projected for 2020/21 despite a reduction this
month in Vietnam’s crop forecast. The 2021 global rice trade forecast was lowered fractionally
but is still 6 percent above a year earlier. Global ending rice stocks were revised higher and
remain record high. Thailand’s trading prices have declined from early May, while U.S. prices
are unchanged and Vietnam’s prices are up slightly.
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1985/85 1990/91 1995/96 2000/01 2005/06 2010/11 2015/16 2020/21f
Ending Stocks Stocks-to-Use
Figure 1
U.S. rice stocks projected to increase 35 percent in 2020/21
Million cwt (rough basis)
Percent
Cwt = Hundredweight. 2019/20 and 2020/21f = forecasts.
Sources: 1985/86-2017/18, Rice Yearbook Data Set, USDA, Economic Research
Service; 2018/19-2020/21, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA,
World Agricultural Outlook Board.
August-July Market Year
Next release is July 14, 2020
RCS-20F June 15, 2020
In this report:
- Domestic Outlook
- International Outlook
Rice Outlook monthly tables, in excel format, can be found on the Rice Outlook report page on USDA’s
Economic Research Service website.
Economic Research Service | Situation and Outlook
Report
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RCS-20F, June 15, 2020
USDA, Economic Research Service
Domestic Outlook
U.S. 2020/21 Total Rice Supply Forecast Raised 2.5 Million
Cwt
There were two supply-side revisions this month to the 2020/21 U.S. all-rice balance sheet.
First, the 2020/21 carryin was increased 1.5 million cwt to 32.0 million cwt, still down almost 29
percent from a year earlier. The increase was due to an upward revision—all for long-grain—in
the 2019/20 import forecast. By class, the long-grain 2020/21 carryin was raised 1.5 million cwt
to 16.2 million cwt, down 50 percent from a year earlier and second-smallest since 2004/05. In
contrast, the combined medium- and short-grain 2020/21 carryin remains forecast at 13.7
million cwt, up 35 percent from a year earlier.
The 2020/21 all-rice import forecast was raised 1.0 million cwt to a record 33.6 million cwt, up
just 0.1 million cwt from the 2019/20 revised import forecast. The 2020/21 import revision was
also all for long-grain and was based on stronger-than-expected purchases in 2019/20 through
April 2020 and expectations of continued large imports in 2020/21. Specific Asia aromatic
varieties not currently grown in the United States account for virtually all of the steady expansion
in U.S. long-grain imports. At 27.0 million cwt, U.S. 2020/21 long-grain imports are up 1.0 million
cwt from the previous forecast and unchanged from the year-earlier revised record.
U.S. medium- and short-grain imports in 2020/21 remain forecast at a record 6.6 million cwt, an
increase of just 0.1 million cwt from 2019/20. U.S. medium- and short-grain imports have
increased sharply since 2017/18 due to continued large purchases of China’s rice by Puerto
Rico. This rice is sold at substantially discounted prices from multi-year Government-held
stocks. Since May 2018, China has sent three or four shipments of about 21,000 tons of milled
medium- and short-grain rice to the United States every 12 months. These shipments are
expected to continue in 2020/21. China and Thailand each now account for about a third of total
U.S. medium- and short-grain rice imports. India supplies around 15 percent, with Italy a regular
supplier of smaller quantities of its Arborio rice.
The 2020/21 U.S. rice crop remains projected at 216.2 million cwt, up 31.5 million cwt from a
year earlier, a result of both larger area and a higher yield. The harvested area estimate of 2.81
million acres is based on the NASS March 31 Prospective Planting report and uses a 5-year
Olympic average of planted-to-harvested ratio by class. The first survey of actual plantings of
the 2020/21 U.S. rice crop will be reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS)
in the June Acreage report, scheduled for release on June 30. The 2020/21 average rice yield
remains projected at 7,699 pounds per acre, up 228 pounds from a year earlier and the highest
on record. The yield is based on trend yield by class. The first survey yield forecast for the
2020/21 U.S. rice crop will be released on August 12 in the NASS Crop Production report.
By class, long-grain rice production in 2020/21 remains projected at 155.5 million cwt, up 24
percent from a year earlier. Almost all U.S. long-grain rice is grown in the South. The 2020/21
combined medium- and short-grain crop remains projected at 60.7 million cwt, up almost 3
percent from a year earlier and the largest since 2011/12. About 80 percent of the U.S.
medium- and short-grain crop is grown in California.
Progress of the 2020/21 U.S. rice crop remains slightly behind normal in parts of the Delta, a
result of persistent rain and wet conditions this Spring, similar to 2019/20 but not as severe. For
the week ending June 7, 95 percent of the U.S. rice crop was reported planted, unchanged from
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RCS-20F, June 15, 2020
USDA, Economic Research Service
last year’s rain-delayed crop but 3 percentage points behind the U.S. 5-year average. Progress
varied by region and State. On the Gulf Coast, planting was completed in Louisiana by June 7,
just 1 percentage point ahead of a year earlier and even with the State’s 5-year average.
Harvest should begin in Louisiana in early July. Planting was only slightly slower in Texas, with
98 percent of the crop reported planted by June 7, 1 percentage point ahead of both a year
earlier and the Texas 5-year average. For both Gulf Coast States, early planting bodes well for
a good yield and a successful ratoon crop.
In the Delta, the Arkansas crop was reported 93-percent planted by June 7, unchanged from a
year earlier but behind the Arkansas 5-year average of 98 percent, a result of the persistent rain
this Spring. Missouri’s crop was reported 86-percent planted by June 7, 2 percentage points
ahead of a year earlier but behind the Missouri 5-year average of 95 percent, also a result of the
continued rain and wet conditions. Mississippi’s crop was reported 98-percent planted by June
7, up 3 percentage points from a year earlier but unchanged from the State’s 5-year average.
Finally, in California, 100 percent of the rice crop was reported planted by June 6, 1 percentage
point ahead of both a year earlier and the California 5-year average.
Emergence of the 2020/21 U.S. rice crop remains behind normal in much of the Delta as well,
with the pace of emergence varying by State and region. For the week ending June 7, 88
percent of the U.S. 2020/21 rice crop had emerged, 4 percentage points ahead of a year earlier
but behind the U.S. average of 93 percent. On the Gulf Coast, 98 percent of the Texas crop had
emerged by June 7, ahead of both 91 percent a year earlier and the Texas 5-year average of 94
percent. In Louisiana, 97 percent of the crop had emerged by June 7, 1 percentage point ahead
of a year earlier and 2 percentage points ahead of the Louisiana 5-year average.
In the Delta, 87 percent of the Arkansas crop had emerged by June 7, 5 percentage points
ahead of the year-earlier rain-delayed crop but behind the Arkansas 5-year average of 95
percent. In nearby Missouri, 78 percent of the rice crop had emerged by June 7, just 1
percentage point ahead of last year’s rain-delayed crop but well behind the Missouri 5-year
average of 91 percent. Mississippi’s crop was reported 89 percent emerged by June 7, 4
percentage points ahead of a year earlier but behind the Mississippi 5-year average of 93
percent. In California, 85 percent of the crop had emerged by June 7, 4 percentage points
ahead of last year and 5 percentage points ahead of the California 5-year average.
Crop conditions for 2020/21 are much improved from a year earlier in most States, mostly due
to more favorable weather in most areas, despite the persistent rainfall in parts of the Delta. For
the week ending June 7, 70 percent of the U.S. 2020/21 rice crop was rated in good or excellent
condition, compared with 61 percent a year earlier. In Arkansas, 64 percent of the 2020/21 crop
was rated in good or excellent condition for the week ending June 7, up from 56 percent a year
earlier. In nearby Missouri, 54 percent of the 2020/21 rice crop was rated in good or excellent
condition, up from 48 percent a year earlier. In contrast, 56 percent of Mississippi’s 2020/21 rice
crop was rated good or excellent, down from 63 percent a year earlier. In Louisiana, 83 percent
of the 2020/21 rice crop was rated in good or excellent condition, up from 68 percent a year
earlier. Similarly, in Texas, 62 percent of the 2020/21 rice crop was rated in good or excellent
condition for the week ending June 7, well above just 35 percent a year earlier. Finally, in
California 85 percent of the 2020/21 rice was rated in good or excellent condition, unchanged
from a year earlier.
This month’s upward revision in both carryin and imports boosted the 2020/21 U.S. total rice
supply forecast 2.5 million cwt to 281.8 million cwt, 7 percent larger than in 2019/20. The
expectation of larger supplies in 2020/21 is the result of a 17-percent increase in production
more than offsetting a substantial decline in carryin, with imports just fractionally higher. At
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RCS-20F, June 15, 2020
USDA, Economic Research Service
198.7 million cwt, the 2020/21 long-grain total supply forecast is up 2.5 million cwt from the
previous forecast and more than 7 percent larger than in 2019/20. A much larger crop and
slightly increased imports more than offset a substantial decline in carryin. Combined medium-
and short-grain total supplies remain forecast at 81.1 million cwt, also up 7 percent from
2019/20, mostly due to a larger carryin, with expected increases in production and imports much
smaller.
2020/21 U.S. Export Forecast Lowered; Domestic Use Raised
Total use of U.S. rice in 2020/21 is projected at 238.5 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from the
previous forecast and 3 percent larger than the year-earlier revised level, with forecasts for both
exports and domestic and residual use projected to be higher in 2020/21. Long-grain total use is
projected at 176.0 million cwt, an increase of 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 4
percent larger than the year-earlier revised forecast. Medium- and short-grain total use in
2020/21 remains forecast at 62.5 million cwt, up less than 1 percent from a year earlier.
Total domestic and residual use in 2020/21 is projected at 139.5 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt
from the previous forecast, more than 3 percent larger than a year earlier and the second
highest on record. This month’s upward revision in the total domestic and residual use forecast
was primarily based on the higher import forecast. The year-to-year increase in total domestic
and residual use is primarily based on increased supplies of rice in 2020/21 and expectations of
greater post-harvest losses associated with a larger crop. By class, long-grain domestic and
residual use is projected at 105.0 million cwt, up 2.0 million cwt from the previous forecast and 4
percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual
use remains projected at 34.5 million cwt, up almost 1.5 percent from 2019/20.
Total U.S. rice exports in 2020/21 are projected at 99.0 million cwt, down 1.0 million cwt from
the previous forecast but still 3 percent larger than the year-earlier revised estimate. Long-grain
accounts for all of the expected increase in U.S. exports in 2020/21. At 71.0 million cwt, the U.S.
2020/21 long-grain export forecast is down 1.0 million cwt from the previous forecast but still up
more than 4 percent from the year-earlier revised level. This month’s slight reduction in the
2020/21 long-grain export forecast is based on expectations of continued strong competition
from South American exporters in Latin American markets. Latin America is the largest market
for U.S. long-grain rice. On an annual basis, the expected increase in long-grain exports is
based on larger U.S. supplies and lower projected U.S. long-grain prices. Similar to recent
years, the United States is expected to ship little rice to Sub-Saharan Africa beyond food aid
shipments—which account for less than 3 percent of total U.S. rice exports—and is likely to
continue to sell almost no long-grain rice to Asia. U.S. prices are too high for these two price-
sensitive markets.
U.S. medium- and short-grain rice exports in 2020/21 remain projected at 28.0 million cwt,
unchanged from 2019/20. The United States is expected to again export little rice beyond its
current six core markets. First, the three major buyers in Northeast—Japan, South Korea, and
Taiwan, whose purchases are all made as part of World Trade Organization agreements—are
expected to again account for around two-thirds of U.S. medium- and short-grain exports (on a
rough basis). Jordan typically imports around 3 million cwt, all milled rice. Mexico typically
purchases a small amount of U.S. medium-grain rough rice. Canada is also regular buyer of
relatively small quantities U.S. medium-grain milled rice. Turkey, once a large regular buyer of
U.S. medium- and short-grain rice, returned as small buyer of U.S. rice in 2019/20, purchasing
less than a million cwt of California rough rice. Little, if any, growth in U.S. exports of medium-
and short-grain exports to Turkey is expected in 2020/21.
