美国农业部-美股-农业行业-饲料展望：预计在2021年会有创纪录的高产量-0514-26页.pdf

Feed Outlook

Tom Capehart

Olga Liefert

David Olson

Record-High Crop Projected For 2020/21

The 2020/21 U.S. corn crop is forecast to be a record high 16.0 billion bushels. In spite of lower carryin,

in the United States and large crops in Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Despite record-high corn

production prospects, U.S. 2020/21 corn exports face tough competition and are projected at a mere 30

percent of global corn trade, while Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine are expected collectively to have a 58

percent export share. Sorghum exports are boosted for both 2020/21 and 2019/20, based on growing

demand from China. Coarse grain use affected by the pandemic in 2019/20 is projected down, but

recovering in 2020/21.

Coarse grain global ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected higher, with corn stocks taking the lead

and U.S. stocks the highest in 33 years. Foreign corn ending stocks are expected to fall, with a decline

for China. Excluding China, foreign corn stocks end up slightly higher.

Domestic Outlook

Corn planting is well underway and running ahead of the pace of recent years. As of May 10, 67

percent of the corn crop was in the ground, compared with a 5-year average of 56 percent.

Iowa, the largest corn-producing State, has planted 91 percent of its crop, compared with the 5-

year average of 66 percent. Last year at this time, only 28 percent of the crop had been planted,

due to extremely wet conditions that kept farmers out of the fields.

bushels per acre. This assumes normal planting progress and, summer growing season

Feed and residual is projected at 6,050 million bushels, 350 million greater than 2019/20 on

increased grain consuming animal units, a larger crop, and lower expected prices. Food, seed,

and industrial (FSI) gains 245 million to 6,600 million bushels as motor gasoline consumption

returns to more normal levels spurring ethanol blending. Domestic disappearance is projected to

Barley

Oats

Rye

Million Bushels

Percent Change

% Change