美国农业部-全球-农业行业-世界农业供需预测-0710-40页.pdf

June 30, which indicated higher 2019/20 ending stocks than previously estimated. This also resulted

in lowering 2019/20 feed and residual use by 61 million bushels to 74 million. Wheat production for

bushels to 1,218 million with reductions in Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. The initial 2020/21

survey-based production forecasts for other spring and Durum were issued this month by NASS.

farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $4.60 per bushel, compared to the revised 2019/20 SAFP of

$4.58.

The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for smaller supplies, reduced consumption, lower exports, and

decreased stocks. Supplies are reduced 2.9 million tons to 1,066 million as larger beginning stocks

are more than offset by reduced production, primarily in the EU, United States, Morocco, and Russia.

EU production is lowered 1.5 million tons to 139.5 million, mainly on reductions for France and Spain.

800,000 tons to 2.7 million, the smallest output since 2007/08, primarily on updated government

estimates. Russia is reduced 500,000 tons to 76.5 million as lower winter wheat production is

feed and residual use, increased food, seed, and industrial use, and lower ending stocks. Corn

beginning stocks are raised 145 million bushels, based on lower use forecasts for 2019/20. Feed

and residual use for 2019/20 is lower based on indicated disappearance during the first three

use is lowered 45 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels based on

disappearance which is raised in line with an increase for 2019/20. With projections for exports

unchanged, 2020/21 soybean ending stocks are increased 30 million bushels to 425 million.

Soybean residual use is reduced 50 million bushels, reflecting June 1 soybean stocks reported in the

production is lowered for Canada based on updated government data. Soybean production is

The 2020/21 global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.3 million tons to 95.1 million as lower

stocks for Brazil and China are partly offset by higher U.S. stocks. Lower foreign stocks reflect

notable balance sheet revisions for Brazil in 2019/20 and China in 2019/20 and 2020/21. For Brazil,

the 2019/20 crop is increased 2 million tons to 126 million, reflecting higher yields. Exports are

increased 4 million tons to 89 million, leading to a 2-million-ton reduction to ending stocks. The local

million based on an increase in beginning stocks and production only partially offset by a reduction in

imports. An increase in beginning stocks of 140,070 STRV results from increases in 2019/20 FTA

TRQ imports from the implementation of USMCA and in 2019/20 imports from Mexico. Combined

national beet sugar production and cane sugar production in 2020/21 are increased by 85,000 STRV

for 2020/21 are increased by the quantity of specialty sugar beyond the WTO minimum as

announced by the Secretary of Agriculture (154,323 STRV) and by projected FTA imports from

Canada under USMCA (30,581 STRV). Imports from Mexico are projected at 1.079 million STRV, a

reduction of 222,607 from last month. Net imports for 2020/21 are thereby reduced 37,703 STRV.

2021 is assumed at the full statutory level. USTR also granted Canada 20 percent of the 181,437 MT

additional refined sugar TRQ established in April before the implementation of the USMCA. The 20-

percent level of any addition to the refined sugar TRQ is set out in the USMCA and only applies in

this case to calendar year 2020. These allocated amounts are prorated on a quarterly basis across

Mexico production for 2019/20 is estimated at 5.282 million MT. This is an increase of 52,000 MT

over last month mostly on better yields. FAS Mexico City Post reporting supports downward

adjustments of 43,604 MT reflecting combined lower deliveries to the IMMEX re-export program and

the start of the 2020/21 sugarcane campaign are lowered on the basis of lower projected deliveries in

2020/21. The net result of these changes is to increase residually determined exportable supply by

United States are estimated between 740,000 and 757,000 MT from 2019/20 production and

beginning raw sugar stock levels.

raised from last month. The beef production forecast is raised primarily on higher cattle slaughter

estimate of U.S. cattle inventory as well as producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for beef

cow replacement. Forecast pork production is raised from last month largely on higher expected

second-half commercial hog slaughter. Broiler production is raised on recent hatchery data while

turkey production is lowered on recent production and hatchery data. Egg production is lowered from

The beef import forecast is raised for 2020, but the export forecast is lowered from the previous

month on recent trade data. The 2021 beef trade forecasts are unchanged from last month. Pork

export forecasts for 2020 and 2021 are raised from last month as international demand is expected to

remain robust. The 2020 broiler export forecast is reduced on recent trade data, but no change is

made to the 2021 forecast. Turkey export forecasts are lowered for 2020 and 2021 on weak import

Cattle price forecasts for 2020 are lowered from last month on prices to date and continued large

supplies of fed cattle. Forecast 2021 cattle prices are unchanged. The 2020 hog price forecast is

cow. However, the 2021 milk production forecast is raised from last month on expectations of dairy

July 24, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding

retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement.

For 2020, the fat basis import forecast is raised from the previous month on higher imports of butter,

while the fat basis export forecast is raised on increased shipments of cheese and butterfat products.

is raised on higher expected exports of dry skim milk products and lactose. Price forecasts for

cheese, butter, and nonfat dry milk are raised from the previous month on recent price strength and

anticipated demand strength. The whey price forecast is lowered from last month. Class III and

For 2021, the fat basis import and export forecasts are raised. The skim-solids basis import forecast

compared with last month. Beginning stocks are 200,000 bales lower due to higher 2019/20 exports,

but exports in 2020/21 are reduced 1 million bales as a 2-million-bale decline in projected output

reduces exportable supplies. U.S. planted area is 1.5 million acres lower this month, as indicated in

June, and equivalent to 38 percent of use. The projected price received by U.S. upland cotton

producers is 59 cents this month, 2 cents higher than in June.

Global projected ending stocks in 2020/21 are lower this month as well, down 1.9 million bales,

accounted for most of the global decline in production, projections were also reduced for Turkey,