美国农业部-世界农业供需预测-0512-40页.pdf
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ISSN: 1554-9089
World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates
Office of the
Chief Economist
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE - 600
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
May 12, 2020
WHEAT: The initial outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is for smaller supplies, decreased domestic use,
lower exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are decreased by 121 million bushels from 2019/20 on
lower carry-in stocks and smaller production. The 2020/21 U.S. wheat crop is projected at 1,866
million bushels, down 3 percent from last year on lower yields offsetting higher harvested acreage.
The all-wheat yield is projected at 49.5 bushels per acre, down 2.2 bushels from last year. The first
2020 NASS survey-based winter wheat production forecast of 1,255 million bushels is down 4
percent from 2019, on lower Hard Red Winter and White Winter production. Total 2020/21 domestic
use is projected down nearly 3 percent on reduced feed and residual use as record-large 2020/21
corn supplies are expected to displace wheat for feeding. Higher food use is partially offsetting as
2020/21 is projected up 2 million bushels to 964 million, up from a revised 2019/20 estimate of 962
million, which was raised 7 million this month. The NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on
May 1, indicated an unusually large volume of wheat was ground for flour in the first quarter of 2020.
Exports for 2020/21 are projected at 950 million bushels, down 20 million from the revised 2019/20
exports. Greater global 2020/21 export competition is expected for the United States with several
major exporters projected having larger supplies. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are 69 million
bushels lower than last year at 909 million. The projected season-average farm price is $4.60 per
bushel, unchanged from last year as the outlook for low U.S. corn prices is expected to restrain
2020/21 U.S. wheat prices.
The initial outlook for 2020/21 international wheat is for larger supplies, increased trade, greater
consumption, and higher ending stocks. Foreign supplies are projected to increase 23.2 million tons
to 982.4 million as several major exporters (Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Russia) are projected
to have higher production for 2020/21. Australia is projected with the largest increase from last year
to 24.0 million tons, up 8.8 million as it recovers from a multi-year drought. Conversely, the EU is
projected to decline nearly 12 million tons to 143 0 million on lower harvested area and yields.
Ukraine production is also projected lower at 28.0 million tons, but this would still be the second-
largest production on record.
Projected 2020/21 global trade is 4.6 million tons, or more than 2 percent higher, at a record-high
188.0 million on greater exportable supplies. Imports are projected to rise, primarily on increased
demand by China, Algeria, Morocco, the EU, Iraq, and Uzbekistan. Russia is projected as the
2020/21 leading world wheat exporter at 35.0 million tons with Argentina, Australia, and Canada also
projected higher while the EU, Ukraine, and United States are lower. Projected 2020/21 world
consumption is increased 4.9 million tons to a record-large 753.5 million as higher food, seed, and
industrial use more than offsets reduced feed use on greater global corn supplies. Projected 2020/21
world ending stocks increased 5 percent to a record-large 310.1 million tons with China accounting
for 52 percent of the total.
COARSE GRAINS: The U.S. feed-grain outlook for 2020/21 is for record high production and
domestic use, greater exports, and larger ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 16.0
billion bushels, up from last year on increased area and a return to trend yield. The yield projection
of 178.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress
and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2019 time period. Despite
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