关于城镇就业人数的数学模型，研究生数学建模二等奖

%Q3建模里第二阶的UT检验 load ND.mat;%nd 15*3 load NY.mat;%ny 15*1 % c=8.8701; % b=[0.04 0.0803 0.0205]'; c=8.8542;%dd b=[0.039 0.0839 0.0231]';%dd e=log(ny)-log(nd)*b-c s1=0; s2=0; for i=2:15 s1=s1+(e(i)-e(i-1))^2; s2=s2+e(i)^2; end DW=s1/s2 p=1-DW/2 %残差 yhat=zeros(1,14); for i=2:15%第二到第十五的预测 1994~2007 yhat(i)=c+log(nd(i,:))*b-p*log(nd(i-1,:))*b-p*log(ny(i-1));% end [log(ny) yhat']; mmm=log(ny(2:15))-yhat(2:15)' mean(log(ny(2:15))-yhat(2:15)')% 5.8640 %修正b for i=1:14 y1(i)=log(ny(i+1))-p*log(ny(i)); x1(i,:)=log(nd(i+1,:))-p*log(nd(i,:)); end y2=y1'; c1=c*(1-p) b1=x1\(y2-c1) e2=log(ny(2:15))-log(nd(2:15,:))*b1-c1 s1=0; s2=0; for i=2:14 s1=s1+(e2(i)-e2(i-1))^2; s2=s2+e2(i)^2; end DW2=s1/s2; p2=1-DW2/2; %1 x3=[0 0 0];% for i=1:13 y3(i)=y1(i+1)-p*y1(i); x3(i,:)=x1(i+1,:)-p*x1(i,:); end b2=[ones(13,1) x3]\y3' % b20= 1.8732 % b21= 0.0716 % 0.1737 % -0.0464