第十三届数学中国数学建模网络挑战赛
地址：数学中国数学建模网络挑战赛组委会 网址：www.tzmcm.cn
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Abstract
In this paper, a dynamic evaluation model of infectious diseases based on fuzzy neural
network was established to distinguish between "pandemic" and "pandemic" diseases. The
credibility of the model was verified by using covid-19 (covid-19) data and known pandemics
(H1N1 and covid-19) and pandemics (SARS and MERS) data.According to different risk areas,
different virus detection sampling schemes were designed, and the NSIR model of asymptomatic
infection was constructed in combination with virus sampling schemes to predict the distribution
of asymptomatic infection in Beijing.The prediction results of asymptomatic infection in Beijing
were combined with China's epidemic prevention policy to formulate corresponding
plans.Finally, based on the analysis results of question 1 and question 2, reasonable and effective
epidemic prevention principles and measures are put forward for who.
Aiming at question 1, this paper used the existing COVID 19(COVID 19) data and the
known pandemic (H1N1 and COVID 19) and epidemic (SARS and MERS) data, and used the
expert scoring method and entropy weight method to determine the weight of H1N1, SARS and
MERS.A dynamic evaluation model of infectious diseases was constructed by combining
quantitative index and qualitative index with fuzzy neural network to distinguish "epidemic"
from "pandemic" diseases.
Aiming at question 2: the research and analysis of question 1 in this paper found that covid-
19 (covid-19) was regional. Combining with China's epidemic prevention policies, three risk
areas were divided into high risk area, medium risk area and low risk area.According to
different risk areas to develop different virus detection sampling plan.The NSIR prediction
model of asymptomatic infection was constructed according to the virus sampling plan. Taking
Beijing as an example, the distribution of asymptomatic infection in Beijing was predicted, and
the corresponding plan was made based on the prediction results of asymptomatic infection in
Beijing combined with China's epidemic prevention policies.
In view of question three, this paper puts forward the corresponding effective epidemic
prevention principles and measures in combination with question one, question two and China's
epidemic prevention policy.
