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2016美国大学生数学建模特等奖论文集(ICM,含赛题)F43181.pdf
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For office use only
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Team Control Number
43181
Problem Chosen
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2016 ICM Summary Sheet
In recent months, Europe's migrant crisis has begun to unfold at an unprecedented pace, which becomes a matter of great concern. To help
better understand and thus effectively deal with the problem, we established a Dual Goal Network Planning Model. Firstly, we quantify the
factors that influence refugee’s migration routes. According to the refugee amount and geographical distribution features of their original
countries, we then select five typical refugee exporting places and ten major refugee receiving countries. These routes are abstracted to a
Networking Model for analysis. For each route, we put weighted values on its model parameters, establish the optimal objective function,
find the optimal solution and acquire the optimal pattern of refugee migration. To improve the accuracy and applicability, we then revise
and further optimize our model in two ways. Firstly, traffic conditions on each route are taken into account and an analysis of dynamic
changes on receiving countries' capacity is conducted. Also, uncertain factors were eliminated while the most sensitive ones are retained to
enlarge the model's scope of application. In the end, we make a set of policy proposals concerning refugee migration.
Firstly, we choose the distribution of refugees, transportation availability and capacity of refugee-receiving countries as three general
factors which can influence the security and efficient movement of refugees. Each factor is determined by several metrics which can be
easily detected. Firstly we use the quantity of refugees and major origins to describe the scope and distribution of refugees. Secondly we
choose three parameters to evaluate the transportation availability of each route: the death rate of each migration routes, the distance
between two countries (measured by the distance of accessible routes between two countries’ capitals), and the average time refugees drive
the distance (adjusted with different time spend when crossing different countries’ borders). We set up a risk preference model to evaluate
the objective function of the transportation availability and introduce Accessibility Index as an overall measurement. Thirdly, we analyze
the capacity of refugee-receiving countries in two dimensions: we use principal component analysis (PCA) to combine five metrics into a
new index to measure the refugees’ quality of prospective life in the receiving country, and we set the upper limit of capacity of receiving
refugees according to countries’ population, economy, and unemployment rate.
Secondly, To find the optimal refugee movement, we first abstract refugee migration routes on maps based on several popular routes based
on the popularity and volume of refugees they take. Then we define the optimal refugee movements as the maximum of living quality for
refugees and the maximum of transportation availability. Also we set constrains that all refugees shall be settled and the amount of
refugees in each country shall not exceed the upper limit of countries’ capacity. We then set up a Network Planning Model (NPM). But
because the network model cannot effectively solve problems with multiple objective functions, we further included Weighted Model and
Goal Program in our analysis. The results simulate the optimal strategy of refugees’ movement and the amount of refugees each country
receives.
Thirdly, we include the traffic conditions on each route in our analysis. The dynamic changes on refugee-receiving countries' capacity
resulted from the flooding of refugees and the cascading effects, which will alter the current optimal refugee movement, are also
considered. The System Dynamics Model (SDM) displays the dynamic changes clearly. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) increase
the total resource supply and healthcare services. We put data into the model iteration and test if the optimal refugee is stable in two
different situations.
Fourthly, we devise a set of policies based on the analysis of the results from our model. We also put the laws, cultural and religion
constraints of the effected countries in to consideration. The role of NGO is not negligible and thus their significant impact on policy-
making is also included. In our report, we take the safety and health of refugees and local people as our priority, and put forward the
optimal refugee movement pattern. We emphasis the importance of the establishment of a cooperation mechanism towards this crisis
between EU countries, supporting the frontline countries, inhibiting refugees retention because of unilateral border-closing, and ect.
Finally, we analyze the impact of exogenous events on the optimal refugee movement. We make changes on the assumptions based on a
specific exogenous event and the parameters shift correspondingly. We use stability analysis to test the stability of the movement between
two sets of parameters in two different situations. According to the result of analysis, exogenous event will interrupt the relationship
between two countries, and bring about barriers for the migration of refugees. This parameter is not included in our model, which provides
basis to further optimize our model. Then we discuss the reasonable range for the scale of refugees in this model. We expand the total scale
of refugees by a factor of 10. Then we exclude some irrelevant uncertainties and retain the major factors such as refugees’ adaptability in
receiving countries. From model analysis, the results show that when the number of refugees reaches the upper limit of receiving countries,
the model cannot make proper allocation for the remaining refugees, which also provides basis for further optimization.
In the end we conclude the strength and weakness of our model. By setting a ceiling, the model can prevent the flooding of refugee which
is beyond the capability of the refugee-receiving countries to avoid some conflict. However, although we set a ceiling of the capability,
when encountered with the overflow of the refugee, the model cannot offer a resolution to relocate the refugee properly. The policy of the
countries and the culture difference can also influence the acceptance between countries which are not measured in our model. Also, the
support and function of International government and NGO’s are not included in our model.
Team#43181 1/ 19
Content
1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 2
1.1Background ........................................................................................................... 2
1.2 Assumption .......................................................................................................... 2
2 Model ........................................................................................................................................................ 2
2.1 Parameters ............................................................................................................ 2
2.2 Model of optimal refugee movement (Minimum cost network flow
model) ........................................................................................................................ 5
2.3Analysis of dynamic of the parameters. ................................................................ 9
3.Policy report ......................................................................................................................................... 12
4 Extension ............................................................................................................................................... 13
4.1 Sensitivity to exogenous events ......................................................................... 13
4.2 Sensitivity to larger populations ........................................................................ 15
5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................ 17
5.1 Strength .............................................................................................................. 17
5.2 Weakness ............................................................................................................ 17
Policy recommendation letter to UN Secretary General and the Chief of
Migration .................................................................................................................................................. 18
Work cited ................................................................................................................................................ 19
Team#43181 2/ 19
1 Introduction
1.1Background
The largely and intensively rising number of people entering Europe in search of safety and a better life has captured the
world’s attention with scenes of heartbreaking tragedy. There are more than a million migrants and refugees crossed into
Europe in 2015, According to the UNHCR’s (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) estimates, however, around
366,000 illegal migrants have reached Europe this year, setting a record. At least 2,800 have died or disappeared during the
journey.
Challenges are not only faced by those asylum-seekers, emigrating from Africa, the Middle East and Asia to the safe-haven
countries, to choose the safe and efficient routes, but also faced by those countries to provide refugees with enough food,
water, healthcare and other necessities. According to Bertrand Benoit and Nicholas Winning ( September 2015), in
September 2015, seen as the most sought-after final destination in the EU migrant and refugee crisis, Germany has reached
the brink of its capacities, and the Government in Berlin are criticized by the federal states, which are responsible for
accommodation of refugees, for its inconsiderate approach to the crisis. Other countries including Greece and Italy are also
struggling to cope with the influx, and creating division in the EU over how best to deal with resettling people. With the
increasingly mounting resettlement burden lying on both sides, a model of effective policies and practices to help better
facilitate the movement of refugees is thus needed.
In this problem, as members of International Coalition of Modelers, we are supposed to build a model of optimal refugee
movement that would incorporate projected flows of refugees with consideration of transportation accessibility, safety of
emigration routes and countries’ resource capacities. We are expected to establish our model on a set of parameters as
metrics of the crisis and take the endogenous systemic dynamics of the crisis into account. The working model serves to
support the optimal set of conditions with our proposals of a set of policies for optimal migration pattern. In addition, we
modelers also embrace exogenous events that may result in substantial shifts in the volatile environment and consider the
scalability and corresponding changes of the model.
1.2 Assumption
(1) Every refugee choose their route owing to their own desire depending on the condition of the refugee receiving country
and the accessibility of the route. The choice they make would not be influenced by other factors like the family's desire or
their friend's decision.
(2) The difference of language between two countries have little influence on the choice of movement route.
(3) The international organization has no restrict on the capability of the refugee-receiving country, which means when
measuring the capability of the refugee country, we only consider its comprehensive national power.
(4) There is no unexpected terrorism event and disasters that be of inconvenient significance on the choice of the refugee.
(5) Once the refugees flood in, there would be no conflict between the local and the refugee that may cause the change of
policy about the refugee-receiving countries attitude towards the refugee.
(6) The death rate of the route which is the parameter of the accessibility index of the route results from the difficulty of the
route objectively and the death rate has little connection with the lack of resources during the route.
2 Model
2.1 Parameters
We choose the distribution of refugees, transportation availability and capacity of refugee-receiving countries as three
general factors which can influence the security and efficient movement of refugees. Each factor is determined by several
Team#43181 3/ 19
metrics which can be easily detected.
a. Distribution of Refugee:
(1) Quantity:
Obviously, the number of refugee is a priority in considering a refugee crisis. It measures the severity and scope of the crisis.
(2) Origin:
Refugees from different region has different routes, this metric helps us establish the beginning of the movements.
The data of above-mentioned metrics are available from Frontex. They are basic parameters of the crisis. So it is not
necessary to justify why they should be included.
b. Transportation Accessibility:
In order to measure the difficulty of migration for refugees, the index of transportation accessibility is introduced, it is, in
short, how easily from one place to another. In 1959, Hansen proposed the concept of transportation accessibility at first
time, which was defined as the chance of acceptance of interactions between the nodes in a road network. In previous
studies, the evaluation for transportation accessibility and the processes of calculation and modeling usually depended on
space reduction. The overwhelming majority of researches abstracted different scales of the study areas as punctiform
location, and put them as starting point and terminal point to evaluate the transportation accessibility. So we also abstract
the countries in the refugee migration roadmap as nodes to measure the transportation accessibility between each country.
During the process of quantitative evaluation and research, according to the definition and major characteristics of
transportation accessibility, the following three aspects will have a significant impact on the result:
(1) The transport we used (e.g. automobile, train and ship etc.).
(2) The distance variables we adopted (e.g. actual distances, travel time and transport costs etc.) Time is the fundamental
resistant factor during trips, transportation costs greatly depend on the transport time costs, so we usually evaluate space
distances by using units of time.
(3) The comprehension over available opportunities. For example, approaching economic centers can reduce the amount of
time of work or other activities. But it is more appropriate to regard survival rate as opportunity in this problem. Because
there is great difference over refugee survival rate between different routes, so survival rate can be not only distance
variable but also an important indicator for measuring road section transportation accessibility.
c. Accessibility Index
(1) Death rate:
From 2015 January to August, more than 2300 refugees dead on the sea. An increasing number of them considered entering
the Europe by land. The death rate might be the major concern when they project the migration route.
(2) Transport distance& transport time:
All of them can indicate the cost of the route. However, as mentioned above, transport time is the best choice, especially in
this case.
(3) Accessibility Index
we combine death rate and time cost into one index.
is transport time from i to j;
is death rate from i to j; measures
the level of risk appetite. The bigger , the more tolerance of risk. We assume the is equal to 1 for every refugee. So we
define transport accessibility index by the formula below:
=
1
< 1
Justification
Figure 1 Accessibility of movement routes
Accessibility index<10
10<Accessibility index<30
Accessibility index>30
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