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Global Commodities Research

01 May 2020

Agricultural Commodities

Quarterly

Industrial demand slides through 1H20, but 2H20

offers green shoots for ags rebound

Global Commodities Research

Tracey Allen

(44-20) 7134-6732

tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

See page 19 for analyst certification and

important disclosures.

www.jpmorganmarkets.com

 Peering through the contagion of the COVID-19 selloff, agri commodities

appear well positioned to embark upon a fundamentally led demand

recovery in late 2Q20 and beyond. While the risk of China making Phase

One purchases of US origin agri products continues to hang in the balance.

 The abrupt shift in OPEC+ oil supply strategy and concurrent

containment response to the Global COVID-19 Crisis are likely to sharply

reduce the industrial use of agri commodities for biofuel production during

the recession of 1H20. However, underlying food and feed consumption has

remained robust, despite dislocations in some supply chains.

 But the equally abrupt and record strong recovery in global growth

expected to commence in June suggests that a resurgence in activity and

underlying industrial demand for agri commodities is approaching. The

gradual reopening of economies and anticipated acceleration in economic

activity through 2H20 and beyond drive quarterly global growth

projections of +34% QOQ SAAR in 3Q20 and +9% QOQ SAAR in 4Q20.

 The unprecedented events of recent months have flipped the profile of our

agri price forecasts. Prices are projected to reach the lows of the year

through 2Q20 before recovering through 2H20. Relative to both spot prices

and forward curves we look for a recovery across the complex commencing

in 2Q20. Biofuel exposed markets lead projected price gains into year end.

 Price momentum across the agri complex trended negatively through Q1

2020, exacerbated by a drop in the ICE Brent z-score to a ~4-year low.

Non-Commercial net length across US traded agri commodities is now at a

historic seasonal short position, exceeded only by peak US-China Trade

War levels of 2019. Positioning risks appear skewed to the upside in 2H20.

 Trade recommendations: Stay long CBOT Corn U0 – Z0 futures spread,

stay long CBOT Corn July '20 upside calls, stay long the ICE #11 Sugar

October ’20 14.5 – 16 USc/lb call spread, short the 13.25 USc/lb put, stay

long the agri complex via an index.

Figure 2: The JP Morgan Agriculture & Livestock TR Index has collapsed –17.5% YTD albeit

outperforming the aggregate, down -35% YTD. The 2H20 acceleration in growth and persistent

contraction in world grain & oilseed inventories will drag ags out of the COVID-19 slump.

Index performance from 2/1/2019

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, 29 April

100

120

140

110

130

150

Jan-19

Feb-19

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-19

Jul-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-20

Feb-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Industrial Metals Precious Metals Agriculture & Livestock

Aggregate Energy (RHS)

Figure

Agri commodity price

movements – active contract

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Commodities

Research, 29 April 2020

-13.2%

-6.3%

-4.5%

-4.3%

-4.2%

-4.1%

-3.8%

-2.8%

-2.3%

-2.2%

-1.8%

-1.0%

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

0.9%

1.7%

2.0%

3.1%

6.8%

19.2%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

30%

CME Class III Milk

ICE Arabica Coffee

CBOT Kansas Wheat

CBOT Wheat

Euronext Wheat

CBOT Corn

CME Live Cattle

MDE-Bursa Palm Oil

Minneapolis Wheat

BCOM Agri Index

JPMCCI Agri Index

CBOT Soymeal

ICE #5 White Sugar

ICE #11 Raw Sugar

CBOT Soybeans

Euronext Maize

ICE Cocoa London

CBOT Soybean Oil

CME Feeer Cattle

ICE NY Cocoa

ICE Canola

ICE #2 Cotton

ICE Robusta Coffee

CME Lean Hogs

WOW YTD

Tracey Allen

(44-20) 7134-6732

tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

Global

Commodities Research

Agricultural Commodities Quarterly

01 May 2020

Industrial demand slides through 1H20,

but 2H20 offers green shoots for ags

rebound

Peering through the contagion of the COVID-19 selloff,

agri commodities appear well positioned to embark

upon a fundamentally led demand recovery in late 2Q20

and beyond. The J.P. Morgan Agriculture & Livestock

Index has sold off -17.5% YTD, led lower by the historic

collapse in oil demand and prices which has crushed biofuel

use and competitiveness. Macro repercussions of the

sudden stop in activity have also been transmitted to the

complex via foreign exchange markets (see Key Currency

Views: Still no cure for USD strength, Chandan &

Meggyesi et al 17 April). The collapse in the Brazilian real

– the worst performing major currency through 2020 YTD

(-36% YTD to USD/BRL 5.5) – has also taken its toll on

USD denominated agri futures prices. Brazil’s enhanced

export competiveness during the early stages of the Phase

One US-China Trade Agreement has resulted in China

purchasing sizeable tranches of Brazilian origin soybeans

and proteins, raising questions around the durability of the

agreement.

Figure 3: With an unprecedented stoppage in global activity, our

economists forecast a sharp decline in global GDP in 1H20 with an

abrupt 2H20 rebound

Real GDP - %q/q, saar

Source: Global Data Watch, J.P Morgan Commodities Research, as of 24 April 2020

Robust food and feed consumption of agri commodities

has driven relative outperformance of the aggregate

Commodities Index which is down -35% YTD. Looking

into 2H20 and beyond, we anticipate that food and feed

demand will remain robust, while industrial demand will

recover as economies open. Unprecedented stimulus and

coordinated Central Bank action, along with energy price

weakness, should support an abrupt and record strong

recovery in global growth from June. This highlights that a

resurgence in activity and underlying industrial demand for

agri commodities is approaching. The gradual reopening of

economies and anticipated activity acceleration drives

quarterly global growth projections of +34% QOQ SAAR

in 3Q20 and +9% QOQ SAAR in 4Q20. Looking into

2021, growth should recover to the pre-COVID levels by

January, and GDP is projected to rise to 6% YOY, up from

-4.5% in 2020 (See Global Data Watch: Fetch the bolt

cutters, I’ve been in here too long, Kasman et al, 24 April).

Fundamental adjustments show persistent draws in

exportable stocks

Despite acute industrial demand destruction through

April and May, our revised 2019/20 balances call for a

continued contraction in exportable world inventories,

with the exception of cotton (see World Commodity

Balances and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q

2020: Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April).

Aggregate world inventories tell a similar story, but are

inflated by stocks locked out of export markets (Figure 4).

Cotton, the most growth- and income-sensitive market of

the complex, has suffered significant demand destruction

(-9% QOQ) during the lockdown, and global inventories

have expanded over +13% QOQ relative to our 2020

Outlook. Barring sugar, global stocks have increased across

the agri complex relative to our 2020 Outlook, as the global

downturn weighs on industrial demand. In the case of

sugar, production constraints in Thailand have driven a

QOQ contraction in stocks and deepened our assessment of

the world market deficit to -11.5 million tonnes (raw value).

Figure 4: COVID-19 related demand destruction has prompted

2019/20 inventory assessments to rise, albeit decline YOY

% change in world inventory forecasts

Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

In 2020/21 world exportable inventories are projected to

draw for yet another year, despite higher carry in stocks

(see World Commodity Balances and Agricultural

Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020: Fundamentals chart

pack, Allen, 30 April). This continues to drive a gradual

tightening of world stocks-to-use ratios (Figure 5). Palm

oil stocks are projected to draw aggressively, down -12%

YOY, despite the relaxation in biodiesel blending programs

across South East Asia.

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

Dec 06

Dec 07

Dec 08

Dec 09

Dec 10

Dec 11

Dec 12

Dec 13

Dec 14

Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17

Dec 18

Dec 19

Dec 20

Dec 21

Developed markets Emerging Markets Global

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Cotton

Wheat

Corn

Sugar

Palm oil

Soybean

USDA 19/20 (f) Y/Y JPMC 19/20 (f) Y/Y

JPMC 19/20 (f) Q/Q JPMC 20/21 (f) Y/Y

JPMC 20/21 (f) Q/Q

Tracey Allen

(44-20) 7134-6732

tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

Global

Commodities Research

Agricultural Commodities Quarterly

01 May 2020

The seismic shift in the 2020/21 world sugar balance to a

2.8 million tonne surplus (from a -4.8 million tonne deficit

in our February update) should drive a small stocks build –

the only projected build across the complex, while stocks-

to-use remains in check (see World Commodity Balances

and Agricultural Commodities Quarterly 1Q 2020:

Fundamentals chart pack, Allen, 30 April).

Figure 5: On a world basis, our stocks-to-use projections continue

to tighten in 2020/21, while sugar remains flat

Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Price forecast profile flipped to 1H20 weakness followed

by a demand led recovery in 2H20

Biofuel feedstocks ICE #11 Sugar, MDEB Palm Oil and

CBOT Corn have led the losses across the agri complex in

recent months, closely followed by dairy products and the

livestock sector. Following COVID-19 induced softening of

demand, and slow progress on China's Phase One purchases

of US agricultural products, prices are projected to reach

the lows of the year through 2Q20 before recovering

through 2H20. Relative to both spot prices and forward

curves we look for a recovery across the complex

commencing in 2Q20 (see Agri Commodity Price

Forecasts, Figure 13). Our ICE #11 Sugar price forecast has

been revised down -16% (from February) to an average of

12.4 USc/lb through 2020 (from 14.8 USc/lb previously),

and CBOT Corn prices are revised down -8% from our

prior estimate to an average of 366 USc/bu through 2020.

The persistent contraction of exportable wheat stocks

through 2020/21 drives a 3% increase in our assessment of

CBOT Wheat prices to an average of 550 USc/bu through

2020 – notably the only upward revision.

From the depths of the COVID-19 selloff and

underperformance of commodities relative to other

risky assets including equities, we hold a bullish risk

bias through 2H20 from our current price forecasts (see

Price risk scenarios, Figure 14).

Much uncertainty hangs in the balance, however, around

the opening of economies and the timing of a normalization

in activity. A number of underlying assumptions have also

changed over the quarter:

 Oil prices are likely to remain weak through 2020,

albeit rising towards year-end, as balances tighten, with

Brent to average ~$36/bbl through 2020. This lends

scope for a significant recovery in passenger vehicle

use through 2H20 and keeps us optimistic for a sharp

bounce in biofuel blending demand. However, in some

countries where 100% biofuels are available, such as

Brazil (a significant consumer of hydrous ethanol),

sustained pressure on crude oil and product prices is

likely to weigh on biofuel competitiveness.

 US farmers plant 93 million ac of corn, 87 million ac

of soybeans and 12 million ac of cotton (Figure 7).

 Our FX strategists call for sustained weakness across

EM FX markets through 2020, albeit with mild

appreciation off current lows through 2H20 (Figure 6).

 Over the course of 2020 it has become apparent that

China’s hog herd has stabilized and is moving into

an expansion mode, as discussed for some time

(Figure 26). China's soybean import demand is

projected to rise to 90 million tonnes in 2019/20 and at

least 93 million tonnes in 2020/21.

 Progress on China’s purchases of US agricultural

products under the Phase One Trade Deal between

the US and China has been slower than anticipated.

The historic depreciation in the Brazilian real through

the COVID-19 pandemic and the unfolding local

political crisis have increased the competitiveness of

Brazilian-origin products relative to the US. True to the

terms of the deal, China has bought agri products on

the basis of price competitiveness primarily from

Brazil. Looking into 2H20, we anticipate that China’s

purchases of US agri products will rise, particularly as

economic activity accelerates. (See Agricultural

Markets Weekly: Agri markets await physical purchase

confirmation to price the Phase-One deal, Allen, 16

January.)

 Seasonal climate forecasts call for a continuation of

a neutral ENSO through 2020, with a slight lean

towards La Niña through late 2H20.

Figure 6: EM FX weakness will remain a headwind for agri

commodities through 2020 but should subside in 3Q

Source: J.P Morgan FX Strategy, 24 April

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Wheat Corn Soybean

Palm Cotton Sugar

28-Apr Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21

JPM USD Index 130.4 129.8 129.2 129.3 129.0

EUR/USD 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.06 1.06

USD/BRL 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.1

USD/RUB 74.1 75.0 74.5 74.0 73.0

USD/CNY 7.08 7.10 7.00 6.99 6.99

USD/MYR 4.36 4.40 4.35 4.30 4.25

Tracey Allen

(44-20) 7134-6732

tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

Global

Commodities Research

Agricultural Commodities Quarterly

01 May 2020

Figure 7: We maintain our US acreage expectations and look for

farmers to move acres into soybeans following the collapse in

CBOT Corn prices and basis, as well as weak ICE #2 Cotton margins

Million acres

Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

Biofuel blending set for a v-shaped bounce in 2H20

Agri commodities have taken broader direction from oil

markets over recent months, amid the COVID-19 slump

in demand and biofuel blending. However biofuel

production is highly elastic, and the collapse in production

margins has resulted in widespread plant closures across the

US though April, and a slow start to the cane harvest and

ethanol production in Centre/South Brazil. After rising to a

record high of 27.7 million barrels in mid-April, US

ethanol stocks have shown early signs of peaking, and

with blending demand now exceeding production after

plant closures, stocks should remain in check.

Figure 8: Traffic flow across major ethanol blending cities with

lockdowns in place show signs of bottoming. Beijing offers an

interesting path to recovery, having resumed activity.

YOY change

Source: Tom Tom, J.P Morgan, as of 22 April 2020

Unlike record heavy oil inventories, which are expected to

pressure prices through 2H20, biofuel stocks have not

blown out. Rather, biofuel feedstock demand has borne the

brunt, inflating inventories of corn, vegetable oil and

driving the 2020/21world sugar balance to transition to

surplus. The pace of economies opening and recovering

remains highly subjective, but we do anticipate a preference

for personal vehicle transport over mass transit and flights

at least for some time. We look for the industrial demand

for biofuels to revert to more normal patterns in 3Q20.

This will involve a rapid increase in the US corn grind,

and support a surge in hydrous ethanol sales in Brazil.

Figure 9: US ethanol stocks have shown early signs of peaking, and

blending demand is moving into a seasonally stronger phase

1,000 barrels

Source: DOE, J.P Morgan Commodities Research, 24 April 2020

Sharp contraction in open interest and sizeable non-

commercial short position flag bullish price risks

Open interest across US traded agri commodities has

contracted sharply off the February record high, down

-12% amid heightened COVID-19 risk aversion. The

share of open interest held by commercial participants has

surged to 41%, as non-commercials have significantly

scaled back risk appetite, reducing their share to 35% (-7%

points YOY). On a year to date basis, interest across the US

traded agri commodities is flat YTD and down -10% YOY

amid the peak of the US-China trade war, with the most

significant contractions observed across CBOT Corn

(-385,000 lots, -17% YOY) and CME Live Cattle (-174,000

Lots, -35% YOY).

Figure 10: Open interest across US traded agri commodity futures &

options has slumped off the record highs of February, amid

heightened risk aversion

1,000 lots

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, 21/04/2020

Non-commercial investors have amassed a sizeable short

position – the second shortest on a seasonal basis behind

2019, after industrial demand collapsed and China’s

Phase One purchases have lacked scale. As of 21 April

2020, the net non-commercial position across US trade

agri commodities was –362,469 lots, largely driven by the

complex leader CBOT Corn.

JPMC

2020f

USDA 2020 US

Prospective

Planting acreage

2019

Actual

2018

Ac tual

JPMC

2020f

ΔYOY

JPMC

2020f

%YO Y

Cor n 93.0 97.0 89.7 88.9 3.3 4%

Wheat 45.3 44.7 45.2 47.8 0.1 0%

Soybeans 87.0 83.5 76.1 89.2 10.9 14%

Cotton 12.0 13.7 13.7 14.1 -1.7 -13%

Major Row

Crop Total

237.3 238.9 224.7 240.0 12.6 6%

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

09 Mar

11 Mar

13 Mar

15 Mar

17 Mar

19 Mar

21 Mar

23 Mar

25 Mar

27 Mar

29 Mar

31 Mar

02 Apr

04 Apr

06 Apr

08 Apr

10 Apr

12 Apr

14 Apr

16 Apr

18 Apr

20 Apr

22 Apr

Sao Paulo New York Chicago

Beijing London Berlin

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

5-yr range 2017 2018 2019 2020

120

140

160

180

200

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Aggregated OI across agri commodity F&Os

J.P. Morgan Agri Price Index

Tracey Allen

(44-20) 7134-6732

tracey.l.allen@jpmorgan.com

Global

Commodities Research

Agricultural Commodities Quarterly

01 May 2020

A material increase in China’s imports in the coming

months and a stronger than expected growth recovery in H2

2020 may trigger a constructive positioning by the

discretionary investors and support prices across the

complex. Historically, 2Q has been a period when open

interest and net length has typically increased across the

complex ahead of the arrival of the new crop. However,

2020 has been anything but typical.

The underlying price momentum across the agri

complex has trended negatively through 2020 YTD,

exacerbated by a sharp fall in ICE Brent price

momentum to close to a 4 year low of -2.33 (breaching

the theoretical maximum negative switch point of -2 SD).

ICE #11 Sugar z-score marked a steep decline to -2.5,

the lowest since 2010. Price momentum across ICE #2

Cotton and CBOT Soybeans switched negative through Q1

2020, while it deepened further into negative territory for

CBOT Corn. ICE #2 Cotton price momentum fell to as low

as -1.76, below the maximum negative switch signal of

-1.5. Despite a compelling longer-term outlook, the impact

of the trend-following models cannot be underestimated in

the short run, and switch signals should be monitored.

Figure 11: The non-commercials net length across US traded agri

commodities reversed to a net short position, after recording a

positive net position in January

1,000 lots

Source: CFTC, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research, 21/04/2020

Trade recommendations: we continue to see opportunities

for consumers to extend longer-dated coverage across agri

commodity markets off the current lows amid a potential

unprecedented recovery in economic activity through 2H20.

Likewise for investors, the projected recovery in economic

activity through 2H20 and beyond is an underpriced risk

across the complex and relative to our fundamental

projection and macro assumptions we consider that current

prices offer an opportunistic entry point. Timing, however,

is difficult, but the gradual reopening and current bottoming

of economic activity lends itself to a positive price risk bias

in the future. We stay long the CBOT Corn U0 – Z0 futures

spread, stay long CBOT Corn July '20 upside calls, stay

long the ICE #11 Sugar October ’20 14.5 – 16 USc/lb call

spread, short the 13.25 USc/lb put, stay long the agri

complex via an index.

Figure 12: Spilt milk…US dairy product markets have also been

engulfed by COVID-19 containment measures and commercial

demand destruction amid surging domestic supply

US fluid milk production (billion pounds)

Source: USDA, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

200

400

600

800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020 5-yr avg

16.5

17.5

18.5

19.5

5-yr range 5 yr Avg 2017

2018 2019 2020

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