JP 摩根-全球-金属与采矿业-金属季报：应谨慎对待Q2金属估值拉伸，但Q3全球经济增长将重新上行-3-54页.pdf
需积分: 0 87 浏览量
2023-07-26
11:45:50
上传
评论
收藏 1.57MB PDF 举报
Global Commodities Research
11 March 2019
Corrected Note (See page 51 for details)
Metals Quarterly
Stretched valuations warrant caution on metals into
2Q but firmer global growth should reopen upside in
3Q
Global Commodities Research
Natasha Kaneva
(1-212) 834-3175
natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Gregory C. Shearer
(44-20) 7134-8161
gregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
Global FX Strategy
Thomas Anthonj
AC
(44-20) 7742-7850
thomas.e.anthonj@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
Ladislav Jankovic
AC
(1-212) 834-9618
ladislav.jankovic@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Global Quantitative and
Derivatives Strategy
Thomas J Murphy, PhD
AC
(1-212) 270-7377
thomas.x.murphy@jpmchase.com
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
See page 51 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Having risen 11% year-to-date, industrial metals have shrugged off
weakness in the global growth cycle (including a new low for
manufacturing PMIs) and instead are already pricing in a full rebound in
macro data.
More specifically, at current spot levels, metals are trading at a 20%
premium to the current global PMI of 50.6.
Put differently, metals are already anticipating a rebound in the global
manufacturing PMI to close to 53—a high hurdle.
While we hold the view that global growth will stabilize and lift by mid-
year, we believe the base metals markets are now already pre-emptively
pricing in the best possible outcome.
In base metals, stretched valuations at present keep us bearish vs spot
levels into 2Q19 but a stabilized global and Chinese economy later in the
year reopens upside for metals in 3Q18. We still see dark macro clouds on
the 2020 horizon, however, and continue to call for industrial-linked metals
to sell off hard into year-end.
If we are correct and accommodative monetary policy and looser financial
conditions manage to stabilize and then lift global growth by early-2Q, we
expect bond yields to move decisively higher.
The potential for higher US yields and their pass-through impact on the
dollar (which tends to inflect higher when the bond market starts to
anticipate further Fed hikes), could likely weigh on precious metals in the
coming months. Our forecast calls for lower spot prices in 2Q.
However, we maintain our longer-term 2H19 bullish outlook and continue
to favor precious metals on their unique late-cycle characteristics.
In terms of our price forecasts, in base metals our 2019 price upgrades
range between 4% in nickel to 2% in copper and zinc. Aluminum, the only
metal that didn’t reach our price target in 1Q, stands out as the single
downgrade (-3%). We leave our 2020 price forecast unchanged.
In precious metals, at this juncture, we opt not to make any major changes
to the price trajectory for gold, silver and platinum, continuing to see 2H19
upside. In palladium, we now see some more intra-quarter volatility over
2Q19 and 3Q19 but retain a view that prices will ultimately retrace into
year-end.
剩余53页未读，继续阅读
资源评论
