2
Novartis
Beovu: Inflammation concerns on Beovu are likely to limit uptake with physicians expecting a decrease in use by up to 60%, which
could limit the peak sales opportunity. In addition they see use of Beovu in only 9% of patients three years from now. We forecast
2023 Beovu sales of $1.09bn which is c.15% below consensus of $1.28bn, but given the updated retinal vasculitis label and the
results from our survey, we believe there could be risk to both JPMe and Cons. 2023 forecasts.
Lucentis: Our survey focused on US physicians. However, we expect the impact on Lucentis from COVID-19 (short term hit to sales
given fewer patient visits to the clinic – average 47% decline in the US) and biosimilars (29% hit to US prescriptions by 2022) will
be broadly the same in Europe as in the US. In our model we forecast 2022 Lucentis sales (the year of EU patent expiry) of $1.5bn,
a 20% decline from 2021.
Roche
Lucentis: US Lucentis sales are likely to take a hit in the short term with physicians seeing an average decrease in patient visits of c.
50% as a result of COVID-19. We had previously highlighted the potential for Lucentis sales in 2Q’20 to be down 30-50%, with the
survey indicating an impact at the higher end of this range. In the medium term, Lucentis is likely to be the hardest hit from
biosimilar entry in the US with an average decline in prescriptions of 27% in 2021. In our Roche model we already expect Lucentis
sales down 35% to SFr1.2bn in 2021, therefore this is already reflected.
Port Delivery System (PDS): The survey suggests there could be some potential offset to our numbers with the Lucentis Port
Delivery System (PDS), which could take c. 10% market share in the US (c. SFr500m) – half of which from Lucentis/ Lucentis
biosimilars, in addition there could be some additional opportunity in Europe, where Novartis did not take up the option on the
PDS.
Molecular Partners
The survey highlights challenges for abicipar uptake in that (1.) current therapies already work well, (2.) many physicians are
already reaching the 3 month dosing interval with similar visual acuity, and (3.) that the inflammation profile is still seen as too
high. Therefore most physicians are likely to only use abicipar in certain patients after other VEGF therapies. We believe this
underpins our cautious view for c. $450m peak global sales for abicipar in wetAMD (c.10% peak market share in the US), and once
approved, we believe the MOLN investment case can move beyond abicipar to the pipeline, which we believe is more important
for the future of the company.
Source: J.P. Morgan Research
Key Takeaways for EU Stocks