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Economic Research
February 15, 2019
Global Data Watch
Global growth slipped below trend and likely will stay there a while
Policy supports (and better politics) break negative feedback loop
Saudi production cuts push oil prices higher
Next week: US auto report, Feb flash PMIs rise, dovish FOMC minutes
Pattern recognition
There are good reasons to discount this week’s outlier economic reports, particu-
larly as seasonality around the turn of the year can be volatile. While we take
some comfort in the reported strong January bounce in China’s exports in the
wake of the November-December collapse, we also fade the strength of the signal
as it does not align with the message coming from the broader regional PMI sur-
veys or trade reports, which remained depressed last month (Figure 1). In the US,
a year-end slowing in retail spending looks reasonable against the backdrop of
financial market turbulence and the early start to the holiday season. However, the
1.7% dive in the control measure (its worst in nine years) is inconsistent with
strong household fundamentals and other indicators of spending for the month.
Rather than overreact to these outliers, we emphasize the signals from the pattern
seen across a broader array of economic releases:
Global growth has slipped below trend. Most readings on industrial activ-
ity as well as our PMI surveys are sending a message of sluggish growth.
Incoming GDP reports point to global growth of just 2.4% ar last quarter
while our global nowcaster points to a similar gain in the current quarter—
0.2%-pt weaker than our official bottom-up forecast.
The US drove the year-end growth slide. A strong US demand engine
offset EM and Euro area sluggishness through most of last year, allowing
the global economy to sustain above-trend growth. The recent slowdown
largely reflects convergence as US GDP is projected to have decelerated to
a 1.6% ar pace last quarter. Growth looks likely to remain below 2% this
quarter as well, in part due to the drag from the government shutdown.
The global consumer is strengthening, global capex is stalling. Although
December data disappointments point to slower gains, global retail spend-
ing still looks to be reviving into year-end, increasing 3.7% ar last quarter
(Figure 2). A purchasing power boost from lower oil prices should support
spending gains this quarter, before fading this spring. At the same time, a
broad range of indicators on global capex point to a stall.
150
170
190
210
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bn USD, sa
Figure 1: EM Asia exports
Note: EMAX partial est for Jan 19; China adj for 2014 LNY vol
EMAX
China
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Source: J.P. Morgan
%3m3m, saar; both scales
Figure 2: Global CPI and retail sales volume
CPI (inverted)
Retail sales
Contents
The US outlook: less Fed, more inflation 16
BoJ to give but not give up when recession
risk comes 18
SA: Fiscal cross-currents before Mboweni
reveals his cards 22
Turkey: We expect CBRT to cut rates
650bp by end-2019 25
Can Nigeria deliver post-election reform?
27
Argentina: On post-sudden-stop CA
adjustment
30
RBA forecasts offer little room for downside
surprises
32
Global Economic Outlook Summary 4
Global Central Bank Watch 6
Nowcast of global growth
7
Selected recent research from J.P. Morgan
Economics 9
The J.P. Morgan View: Markets 10
Data Watches
United States 34
Euro area 41
Japan 45
Canada 48
Mexico 50
Brazil 52
Argentina 54
Chile 56
United Kingdom 58
Scandinavia 60
Emerging Europe 62
South Africa & SSA 66
MENA 68
EMEA EM focus 69
Australia and New Zealand 70
China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan 72
Korea 75
ASEAN 77
India 81
Asia focus 83
Regional Data Calendars 84
Bruce Kasman
(1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley
(1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Joseph Lupton
(1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
2
Economic Research
Global Data Watch
February 15, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Bruce Kasman (1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com
David Hensley (1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
The primary source of the growth downshift—slower business
spending in response to political conflicts that have weighed
on confidence—is unlikely to fade anytime soon. If anything,
softer global profit growth linked to slower nominal GDP
gains is likely to reinforce this drag. We are encouraged,
however, that a backdrop of accommodative policies cush-
ioned the business sector adjustment. In the wake of the
FOMC’s dovish tilt, this week’s deal to avert a US govern-
ment shutdown, combined with signs that Brexit and US-
China trade negotiations will be extended, is bolstering finan-
cial markets. On balance, we expect the current weakness to
prove temporary.
Less Fed now; more growth, inflation later
Having started the year anticipating four Fed hikes, we now
expect no Fed tightening until December. While this shift is
linked to slower-than-expected US growth and increased
global risks, we also see the Fed signaling greater tolerance of
an inflation overshoot. We have been highlighting the impli-
cations of an easier Fed for EM central banks that are in the
midst of a broad-based dovish tilt. Pressure is building for a
broader shift in rhetoric from the ECB and BoJ where poli-
cymakers feel constraints on easing and concerns about per-
sistently low inflation. It is also important to look forward and
recognize a more accommodative stance of global monetary
policy should support financial conditions and bolster private
sector confidence. With hints of this shift beginning to take
hold, we are altering our 2020 global outlook by raising the
US growth and core inflation forecast.
China trade bounce tempers concerns…
China’s merchandise imports and exports collapsed in No-
vember/December in an exaggerated version of what hap-
pened across the rest of EM Asia. The declines were particu-
larly deep in the capital goods sector. This has made us nerv-
ous about 1Q global capex, as has the continued nosedive in
our global investment goods PMI through January. With
capex possibly contracting in 1Q, we may see even weaker
growth in global IP and GDP than we expect. For the region,
the last time exports were falling at this pace was back in
2H14-1H16 when global industry decelerated to a soft 1% ar
on the back of a retrenchment in business equipment spend-
ing. However, the severe declines in China raised fears that a
more extreme downshift in global (or Chinese) growth might
be taking hold. This week’s January China trade data temper
the latter concern somewhat. Indeed, exports bounced strong-
ly and essentially returned to the October level.
The extreme volatility of the China data makes it hard to read
their signal. We are unsure of the cause; we had thought it
might reflect improper seasonal adjustment for the shifting
timing of the Lunar New Year but we find no evidence of that
for China or the rest of EM Asia. For now, one option is to
rely more heavily on export data from EM Asia ex. China
(“EMAX”), which exhibit nearly as good a correlation with
global capex as China’s exports. Available data point to a
continued downtrend in EMAX exports through January.
…as does a pickup in TSF credit growth
Reinforcing China’s qualified good news on January trade,
TSF credit growth picked up to 10.4%oya, the first rise since
mid-2017. Bank loan growth increased smartly, though this
typically happens in January. More notable was the growth in
“shadow credit,” which contracted all through last year, and in
bond financing (Figure 3). We expect TSF growth to rise by
1%-2%-pts in 2019 as officials take additional steps to pro-
mote bank lending and ease the clampdown on non-bank fi-
nancing. One disappointment in this week’s January data was
the continued monthly declines in PPI, which are aggravating
the downturn in manufacturing profits. The soft inflation
prints reinforce our call for more monetary easing. We expect
7-day reverse repo rate cuts (possibly by 5-10bp) in March,
and a 100bp RRR cut in April. The dovish shift from the Fed
further clears the way for the PBOC to ease domestic mone-
tary conditions.
Japan’s economy effectively stalled
Japan’s GDP expanded 1.4% ar in 4Q18, well short of the
2.6% drop recorded in the previous quarter. The surge in
manufacturing output had led us to expect a much stronger
performance. GDP now looks to have stagnated over 2018 as
a whole (4Q/4Q basis). This likely exaggerates the weakness
in the underlying trend; nonetheless, the message remains that
the economy is struggling to grow, especially against a slug-
gish global backdrop. This is all the more concerning with an
increase in the VAT looming later this year and core inflation
still hovering near zero. We maintain our forecast that GDP
will expand at a 1% ar in 1H19 but the risks skew to the
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2016 2017 2018 2019
Flows in Bn CNY, nsa
Figure 3: Select China TSF components
Source: J.P. Morgan
Corp bonds
Trust, entrust loans
and bankers acceptances
Bank loans
3
Economic Research
Global Data Watch
February 15, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Bruce Kasman (1-212) 834-5515
bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com
David Hensley (1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
downside. Next week’s reports on the January trade balance
and February business surveys will give us more information.
EMU: Waiting for growth
The Euro area industrial sector is in recession, contracting
2.1%oya last quarter. The central question is: what does this
say about GDP, and what is the signal for 2019? While GDP
held up better than IP last year, the steep loss of momentum in
IP at year-end (plunging 5.3% annualized in 4Q18) along with
the continued declines in the all-industry PMI in January does
not bode well (Figure 4). We are confident that a recovering
auto sector will give IP a sizable boost, with new car registra-
tions jumping in January almost back to normal. We also take
comfort in regional employment growth, which edged back up
last quarter after dropping steeply in 3Q18. However, if
growth is to firm, we need to see the PMIs not just stabilize
but recover—starting with next week’s flash reading for Feb-
ruary. We expect the French flash PMI to close half the gap to
the stronger INSEE and Bank of France survey readings, lift-
ing the Euro area aggregate by 0.6pt to a level consistent with
1.25% growth. We also expect the German IFO to recover
partially from January’s slump.
Neighbors defy Euro area gravity
In contrast to the Euro area, growth in the surrounding econ-
omies has held up better and is supporting a tightening bias
among central banks. In the Scandies, strong growth and in-
flation hovering around target combined with a negative poli-
cy rate kept the Riksbank this week on a path to hiking in
2H19. Recent activity and inflation data in Norway have also
been encouraging and we expect the Norges Bank to hike in
March. In Central/Eastern Europe, although the global slow-
down has weighted on exports, strong wage growth, EU-
funded investment outlays, and expansive fiscal stances have
supported domestic demand. Moreover, although energy pric-
es are declining, overheating pressures are evident in rising
core inflation and deteriorating current accounts. We expect
the Czech central bank to lead the group with a hike next
quarter, followed by the NBR in Romania in October. The
Hungarian central bank is likely to signal a hike for later this
year. Only in Poland, where core inflation remains low, do we
expect the central bank to stay on hold in 2019.
Brexit: Pretend and extend
PM May got unpleasant signals this week from MPs on both
sides of the Brexit debate. Those who favor a “softer” Brexit
granted her two weeks of further negotiating time with the EU
before they begin the process of forcing an extension of the
Article 50 negotiating period. Those who favor a “harder”
Brexit withheld their support for a motion that hinted at ruling
out “no deal” and continue to press for more aggressive nego-
tiations with the EU. We expect that “soft” Brexit MPs will
force May into an extension, and we do not see negotiations
in the interim producing any changes to the plan on offer. In
the meantime, Brexit uncertainties are weighing on UK
growth. Although strong real income gains are supporting
consumers, the latest survey data through January show weak
hiring alongside falling business capex. The main risk is that
growth runs below our 1% forecast for 1H19, which would
then likely delay our call for an August BoE hike.
OPEC+ production cuts bolster prices
Reports from OPEC and the IEA confirm that OPEC+ has
started to scale back production on the back of the agreed
production cuts, which amounted to 2.5% from Oct’18 levels.
OPEC is ahead of schedule with Saudi Arabia doing most of
the heavy lifting. By contrast, compliance is on average close
to 86% for Jan’19 for OPEC and 25% for non-OPEC. Russia,
one of the key contributing members in terms of production
cuts by volume after Saudi Arabia, has reached only 18%
compliance so far. However, the Russian oil minister has said
the country would curtail output gradually. We expect a fur-
ther reduction of 100 kbd in February with Russian compli-
ance rising to 40% by the beginning of March and perhaps
closer to 80% by April right ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
OPEC+ cuts have started to rebalance oil markets with prices
up by almost 7% over this week.
Editor: Gabriel de Kock (1-212) 622-6718
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
%q/q, saar
Figure 4: Euro area output
Source: J.P. Morgan
Real GDP
Industrial production
4
Economic Research
Global economic outlook sum-
mary
February 15, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley (1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
Carlton Strong (1-212) 834-5612
carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.com
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
Global economic outlook summary
Real GDP
Real GDP
Consumer prices
% over a year ago % over previous period, saar % over a year ago
2018 2019 2020 3Q18 4Q18
1Q19
2Q19
3Q19 4Q19 2Q18
4Q18
2Q19
4Q19
United States 2.8
↓
2.2
↓
1.8
↑
3.4
1.6
↓
1.8
2.3
1.8
1.8
↑
2.7
↑
2.2
1.2
↓
1.6
Canada 2.0
↓
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.2
↓
1.5
1.8
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
Latin America 1.3
1.8
2.4
1.8
-0.1
1.7
3.7
3.0
2.5
3.5
4.1
3.9
3.6
Argentina
-
2.5
-
1.2
2.6
-
2.7
-
8.2
-
0.1
6.0
4.0
3.0
27.1
47.3
50.2
↑
29.7
↑
Brazil 1.2
2.3
2.5
3.1
0.6
1.8
3.8
3.2
2.4
3.3
4.1
3.7
3.4
Chile 3.9
3.5
3.0
1.1
3.5
4.0
4.2
4.0
3.8
2.2
2.8
3.3
3.5
Colombia 2.7
3.1
3.1
0.9
3.0
2.8
4.5
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.3
3.5
3.7
Ecuador 1.1
-0.4
-0.8
3.6
-2.5
-
1.5
1.0
-2.0
-1.0
-0.8
0.0
0.3
0.5
Mexico 2.0
1.7
1.7
3.4
1.2
1.5
2.0
1.8
2.0
4.6
4.8
4.8
4.0
Peru 4.0
3.9
3.6
-3.1
3.0
4.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
0.9
2.4
2.6
2.7
Uruguay 2.1
1.9
1.9
-0.1
0.5
2.0
3.0
4.0
1.0
7.3
7.4
7.8
7.2
Venezuela -10.0
…
1.0
2.0
…
…
…
…
28250
600000
..
..
Asia/Pacific 4.8
4.5
↓
4.5
3.6
4.7
↓
4.4
4.5
5.0
3.9
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.0
Japan
0.7
↓
0.6
↓
0.6
-
2.6
↓
1.4
↓
1.2
0.8
2.5
-
3.5
0.6
0.9
0.4
0.3
Australia 3.0
2.6
2.7
1.0
2.8
3.0
2.6
2.5
2.9
2.1
1.8
1.6
2.0
New Zealand 2.8
2.5
2.6
1.3
2.0
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.4
1.5
1.9
1.8
1.7
EM Asia 6.0
5.6
5.7
5.3
↓
5.7
↑
5.3
5.6
5.9
5.8
2.3
2.2
2.4
2.4
China 6.6
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.1
5.9
6.2
6.4
6.2
1.8
2.2
2.4
2.2
India 7.3
7.2
7.4
6.9
6.8
6.6
7.1
7.5
7.7
4.8
2.6
3.4
4.3
Ex China/India 3.8
3.3
3.5
2.9
↓
4.0
↑
3.1
3.3
3.6
3.7
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.9
Hong Kong 3.3
2.7
2.6
0.4
2.0
4.0
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.1
2.6
2.8
3.0
Indonesia 5.2
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.7
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.8
Korea 2.7
2.7
2.6
2.3
3.9
2.0
2.6
2.9
2.9
1.5
1.8
1.5
1.5
Malaysia 4.7
4.4
4.3
6.7
5.7
↑
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.3
1.3
0.3
1.3
1.8
Philippines 6.2
6.0
5.9
6.1
6.4
6.1
6.1
5.7
6.1
4.8
5.9
3.3
2.1
Singapore
3.2
↓
2.4
3.0
1.4
↓
1.4
↓
3.0
1.0
2.8
3.0
0.3
0.5
↓
1.4
1.6
Taiwan 2.6
1.5
2.0
1.9
↑
1.5
↓
0.9
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.7
0.5
0.3
1.6
Thailand 4.2
3.3
3.8
-0.1
4.5
2.8
3.5
4.5
4.5
1.3
1.1
1.2
1.3
Western Europe 1.8
1.4
1.7
0.9
0.9
↓
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.8
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.2
Euro area 1.8
1.3
↓
1.7
0.6
0.8
↓
1.8
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.9
1.1
1.0
Germany 1.5
1.3
↓
1.7
-0.8
0.1
↓
2.8
1.8
1.5
1.8
1.9
2.1
1.7
1.3
France 1.5
1.2
1.7
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.2
1.2
1.2
Italy 0.8
-0.3
0.8
-0.5
-0.9
-
0.8
0.0
0.5
0.8
1.0
1.5
0.8
0.8
Spain 2.5
2.3
1.9
2.2
2.8
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
0.7
0.8
Norway 2.5
2.6
2.1
1.5
3.7
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.4
3.4
2.8
1.7
Sweden 2.4
1.9
1.8
-0.9
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.0
2.3
United Kingdom
1.4
1.5
1.8
2.5
0.7
↓
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.0
2.4
2.3
2.3
↑
2.0
↑
EMEA EM 3.0
1.8
2.4
1.1
↓
0.7
0.9
↓
2.3
3.1
3.3
4.6
7.1
7.0
5.5
Czech Republic 3.0
↑
2.6
2.9
2.4
↑
4.1
↑
2.4
↓
2.6
↓
2.8
2.8
↓
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.3
Hungary 4.8
3.5
2.8
5.5
↑
4.5
↑
3.0
↓
3.2
↓
3.2
3.0
2.7
3.2
↓
3.3
2.5
Israel 3.2
3.3
3.5
2.1
2.0
3.2
3.2
4.1
4.1
0.7
1.1
0.6
0.9
Poland 5.1
↑
3.7
↓
3.5
6.6
↓
2.0
↓
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
1.7
1.4
↓
2.3
2.5
Romania 4.1
↓
2.7
1.4
6.9
↓
3.0
↑
0.9
↓
1.7
2.4
2.5
↓
5.3
3.7
↑
3.1
↑
3.6
Russia 2.3
1.5
1.6
0.4
1.3
0.5
2.0
2.3
2.3
2.5
4.0
5.4
4.8
South Africa 0.6
1.3
1.1
2.2
1.4
↓
0.8
1.3
1.1
1.2
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.1
Turkey 3.3
0.2
3.5
-4.3
-3.9
-
1.6
2.0
5.0
5.8
12.8
22.4
19.0
12.4
Global 3.2
2.8
↓
2.8
2.6
2.4
↓
2.6
3.0
3.1
2.7
↑
2.4
2.4
↓
2.1
2.0
Developed markets
2.2
1.7
↓
1.6
↑
1.6
↓
1.3
↓
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.2
↑
2.1
2.0
1.3
1.3
Emerging markets 4.8
4.4
4.6
4.1
4.0
4.1
4.8
5.0
4.9
2.8
3.2
3.3
3.0
Global — PPP weighted 3.8
3.3
↓
3.5
↑
3.3
3.1
↓
3.2
3.6
3.7
3.3
2.6
2.7
↓
2.5
2.4
Note: For some emerging economies seasonally adjusted GDP data are estimated by J.P. Morgan. Bold denotes changes from last edition of Global Data Watch, with arrows show-
ing the direction of changes. Underline indicates beginning of J.P. Morgan forecasts. Unless noted, concurrent nominal GDP weights calculated with current FX rates are used in
computing our global and regional aggregates. Regional CPI aggregates exclude Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela. Regional GDP aggregates exclude Venezuela. Forecasts for
Argentina are based on JPMorgan’s estimates of CPI. Source: J.P. Morgan
5
Economic Research
Global Data Watch
February 15, 2019
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
David Hensley (1-212) 834-5516
david.hensley@jpmorgan.com
Carlton Strong (1-212) 834-5612
carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.com
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com
G-3 economic outlook detail
2018 2019
2018 2019 2020 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
United States
Real GDP 2.8 2.2 1.8 2.2 4.2 3.4 1.6 1.8 2.3 1.8 1.8
Private consumption 2.6 2.7 2.0 0.5 3.8 3.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.0
Equipment investment 7.0 3.0 3.5 8.5 4.6 3.4 -0.2 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5
Non-residential construction 5.2 2.1 3.5 13.9 14.5 -3.4 -1.0 2.0 3.8 3.5 3.5
Intellectual property products 7.5 5.5 3.1 14.1 10.5 5.6 10.2 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0
Residential construction
0.0
-
0.5
1.6
-
3.4
-
1.3
-
3.6
0.0
-
1.0
0.3
1.0
1.3
Inventory change ($ bn saar) 30.1 22.2 28.1 30.3 -36.8 89.8 37.1 29.3 23.5 15.2 20.8
Government spending 1.6 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 2.6 1.8 2.1 4.3 1.8 1.3
Exports of goods and services 3.9 1.4 1.7 3.6 9.3 -4.9 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8
Imports of goods and services 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.0 -0.6 9.3 0.9 5.5 5.0 3.0 4.0
Domestic final sales contribution 2.9 2.7 2.1 2.0 4.2 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.2 2.0
Inventories contribution 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 -1.2 2.4 -1.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1
Net trade contribution -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 1.2 -2.0 0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4
Consumer prices (%oya) 2.4 1.4 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6
Excluding food and energy (%oya) 2.1 2.2 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4
Core PCE deflator (%oya) 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.9 2.0
Federal budget balance (% of GDP, FY) -3.8 -4.2 -4.5
Personal saving rate (%) 6.6 6.5 6.5 7.2 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5
Unemployment rate (%) 3.9 3.7 3.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Industrial production, manufacturing
2.4
2.0
1.3
1.9
2.3
3.7
2.3
1.7
1.7
1.5
1.4
Euro area
Real GDP 1.8 1.3 1.7 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.8
Private consumption 1.3 1.2 1.7 2.1 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.8
Capital investment 3.2 2.7 2.4 0.5 6.4 2.9 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.5 2.5
Government consumption 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Exports of goods and services 2.8 2.7 3.0 -2.8 4.7 0.5 1.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 3.0
Imports of goods and services 2.7 2.7 3.0 -2.2 5.4 4.0 0.5 2.5 3.0 3.0 3.0
Domestic final sales contribution 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.2 2.1 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.7
Inventories contribution 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 -0.3 1.1 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1
Net trade contribution 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -1.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.1
Consumer prices (HICP, %oya)
1.7
1.1
1.5
1.3
1.7
2.1
1.9
1.3
1.1
1.0
1.0
ex food, alcohol and energy 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3
General govt. budget
balance (% of GDP, FY)
-
0.9
-
1.0
Unemployment rate (%) 8.2 7.7 7.1 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5
Industrial production 1.0 0.5 2.0 -2.5 0.1 -0.5 -5.3 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
Japan
Real GDP 0.7 0.6 0.6 -0.9 2.2 -2.6 1.4 1.2 0.8 2.5 -3.5
Private consumption 0.5 0.9 0.6 -0.9 2.5 -0.8 2.4 0.5 1.0 3.0 -4.0
Business investment 3.8 1.7 0.6 4.1 10.4 -10.3 9.8 2.0 1.0 3.0 -6.0
Residential construction -5.8 3.6 -0.8 -7.8 -7.8 2.2 4.7 5.0 10.0 5.0 -10.0
Public investment -3.1 1.1 3.7 -2.6 -2.4 -8.3 -4.6 6.0 4.0 4.0 8.0
Government consumption
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.5
0.9
3.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Exports of goods and services 3.1 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.8 -5.6 3.7 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5
Imports of goods and services 3.2 3.1 0.6 0.2 5.3 -2.6 11.3 0.0 3.0 6.0 -4.0
Domestic final sales contribution 0.7 1.2 0.7 -0.1 2.8 -2.4 3.4 1.1 1.3 2.6 -3.1
Inventories contribution
0.1
-
0.1
-
0.2
-
1.1
0.1
0.3
-
0.7
0.0
-
0.1
0.7
-
1.4
Net trade contribution 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -1.3 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 1.0
Consumer prices (%oya) 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
ex food and energy 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5
General govt. net lending (% of GDP, CY) -2.7 -2.9 -3.2
Unemployment rate (%) 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2
Industrial production
0.9
1.9
1.8
-
4.1
4.7
-
5.5
8.3
0.5
3.0
5.0
-
7.0
Memo: Global industrial production
2.7 2.3 2.3 3.2 2.1 1.6 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.9 2.2
%oya
3.3 3.1 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.7
Note: More forecast details for the G-3 and other countries can be found on J.P. Morgan’s Morgan Markets client web site. Source: J.P. Morgan
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