JP 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-5-80页.pdf

May 10, 2019

Global Data Watch

 Renewed US-China trade war further threatens struggling goods sector

 Trade war could hold global capex growth to zero this year, and damp

China GDP by 0.8%-pt through 2020

 Conflict escalation also would amplify easing bias across the globe

 Next week: US Apr ret sales (cont. 0.3%) and IP (mfg 0%), China Apr

beginning with the Fed going on hold—we looked for a cyclical lift to take

hold around midyear. This week has been a reminder that the fading of transi-

tory shocks has yet to translate into a more fundamental lift that supports a

provements lack dynamism. The Euro area looks to have rebounded from the

has been short-lived and point to downside risk in the current quarter. Most

concerning is that the US-China trade negotiation, which just last week Treas-

falling more broadly. Businesses responded to these fears with slower growth

in investment. Although employment gains remain close to cycle highs, global

capex (ex. China) appears to have stalled after reaching a short-lived expan-

sion high in late 2017. Moreover, the deterioration in business sentiment and

dence deteriorating through April, completely reversing the recovery from

2016-17. This week’s escalation in the US-China trade war will no doubt

magnify business worries.

-1.0

-0.5

Expected

Current

Our previous analysis of the US-China trade war suggested

that the direct impact of the tariffs would be relatively modest

in global capex that took hold in 2H18. The disruptive impact

The key call is to assess the degree to which sentiment, spend-

signal from markets is that some reversal of the rally in equity

and credit markets will be forthcoming and this will reduce

in recent months despite the easing in financial conditions, the

The slide in confidence over the past year has damped spend-

was tracking well in China. With negotiations pointing to a

year GDP growth forecast to 6.5% (4Q/4Q). Although the

Lunar New Year fog has limited our visibility, we’ve viewed

the prolonged trade talks and escalation in the tariff war in

2018, some of the negative impact already has taken place,

year-end USD/CNY forecast now at 6.80 from 6.65 previous-

ly. In addition, officials have pledged to retaliate against the

When the elephants fight, the grass suffers

The Asian supply chain underwent a significant shock late last

year as fears about a US-China trade war reached a climax.

China’s intermediate goods imports plunged, mainly from its

down inventories. Recent reports suggested this shock was

unwinding as a trade deal appeared at hand. This week’s trade

report showed Chinese imports rebounded in April to near

Vulnerable Japan could defer VAT hike

sponse to this week’s escalation, Japan’s equity prices fell and

corporate sentiment. We don’t expect Japan’s policymakers to

prime minister May’s term in office. The UK’s participation

its symbolism. Once the UK leaves the EU, the UK’s mem-

sis suggests the newly created Brexit Party, which advocates

for a no-deal Brexit, will win 25 seats. We predict the Con-

servative Party will get 10 seats, about half what they

dence of any regional export upswing, increasing uncertainty

urgency to tighten, we are removing our call for hikes this year.

weak CPI report. The new governor delivered fairly vague

guidance that officials are watching the labor market, though

Latin America 1.2

0.6

2.7

2.6

3.5

Argentina -2.5

2.5

2.5

2.0

1.0

39.8

1.5

0.4

2.8

3.0

2.4

3.3

Ecuador 1.4

-0.8

-1.0

-2.0

-2.0

-2.0

-0.8

Mexico 2.0

1.5

-0.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

4.6

Peru 4.0

3.9

1.0

4.5

3.0

4.0

0.9

Asia/Pacific 4.8

4.5

4.1

4.9

5.2

3.9

2.0

Japan 0.8

0.2

-1.0

1.0

2.5

-3.5

0.6

Australia 2.8

2.1

2.6

2.4

2.5

3.0

2.1

New Zealand 2.8

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.4

1.5

7.2

5.1

6.8

7.5

7.7

4.8

3.3

4.2

3.8

3.8

2.0

Hong Kong 3.0

2.7

7.5

3.5

2.8

2.0

2.1

Philippines 6.2

4.8

Singapore 3.2

2.0

2.0

2.8

2.8

3.0

0.3

Euro area 1.8

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.8

1.7

Germany 1.5

1.0

1.3

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.9

France 1.6

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.8

2.1

Norway 2.5

2.3

1.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

1.8

1.0

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

United Kingdom 1.4

1.6

2.0

1.0

1.5

1.8

2.4

3.2

4.6

Israel 3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

4.1

4.1

0.7

Poland 5.1

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

1.7

Romania 4.1

2.7

0.9

1.7

2.4

2.5

5.3

Turkey 2.6

0.1

4.3

13.5

Global 3.2

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.1

2.7

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.2

2.1

Emerging markets 4.7

4.4

4.9

5.0

4.8

2.8

Note: For some emerging economies seasonally adjusted GDP data are estimated by J.P. Morgan. Bold denotes changes from last edition of Global Data Watch, with arrows show-

Argentina are based on JPMorgan’s estimates of CPI. Source: J.P. Morgan

G-3 economic outlook detail

Private consumption 2.6 2.3 2.0 3.5 2.5 1.2 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Equipment investment 7.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 6.6 0.2 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.5

Non-residential construction 5.0 0.7 3.5 -3.4 -3.9 -0.8 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5

Business investment 3.9 0.0 1.0 -10.0 11.3 -10.0 6.0 5.0 -5.0 3.0 0.5