JP 摩根-全球-宏观策略-全球宏观数据观察-524-84页.pdf

May 24, 2019

Global Data Watch

 Strong 1Q GDP giving way to sluggish goods sector; 2Q downgraded

 Asia rebound continues, but likely fleeting without final demand pull

 PM May resigns; odds of “no-deal” Brexit rise to 25%

 Next week: fade signal from expected strong JPN, KOR Apr IP reports

neath the surface are signs that momentum is slowing.

Perhaps the most puzzling aspect of the strong 1Q GDP reports is that they

contrast so much with the manufacturing sector, which eked out only a 0.8%

ar gain following a similarly weak outturn in 4Q18 (Figure 1). There are at

tory output, there is considerable purchasing power and demand to drive ro-

bust gains in services that will be sufficient to sustain solid above-potential

Morgan flash global PMI dipped 0.7pt this month to a level consistent with 2.5%

0

1

2

ports, global equipment spending is tracking a soft 1.3% an-

have been looking for but still weak. More worrying is that

to their lowest level since 2012 (Figure 3; see here). And alt-

In last week’s GDW, we listed a number of healthy underlying

sheets, and supportive fiscal and monetary policies. We still

see these factors containing the risk of recession. Still, with

much of the 1Q GDP strength based on one-offs (US invento-

ries, fading EMU industrial and political disruptions, and re-

beyond midyear requires a recovery in global capex and con-

tinued solid gains in consumer spending.

The good news is that the anticipated Asian lift is unfolding.

positive and we expect additional good news from Korea and

Japan next week (Figure 4). We also see some pickup in re-

gional exports. The bad news is that the unexpected flare-up

in the US-China trade conflict is likely to short-circuit the

normalization. Likewise, the renewed trade tensions and asso-

ciated uncertainty dim the prospects for a pickup in global

Euro area wage growth remains solid, with negotiated wages

GDP growth are still modestly skewed to the downside.

ability nor their willingness is clear. Deadlock between the

dia’s growth has slowed significantly in recent months. How-

ever, the new administration is limited by financial fragility in

the shadow-banking system and fiscal constraints. Therefore,

the pressure is likely to fall on monetary policy. The RBI has

2018 2019 2020 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19

United States 2.9

3.4

2.2

3.2

1.9

2.2

Canada 1.8

2.0

0.4

0.5

2.0

2.0

2.2

0.5

0.4

4.6

3.7

0.5

5.3

1.9

2.6

3.3

2.8

0.0

3.2

3.5

-0.4

-0.5

1.0

8.0

7.8

Venezuela -10.0

…

1.0

2.0

…

600000

Asia/Pacific 4.8

3.6

4.5

4.6

2.0

2.1

1.2

2.2

2.8

1.4

1.4

EM Asia 6.0

5.3

5.5

5.4

2.4

2.6

6.0

6.1

6.7

2.6

2.6

0.4

-2.0

5.3

2.7

3.0

4.9

5.4

4.7

3.0

2.8

2.3

3.9

0.9

1.2

6.0

5.2

4.4

1.3

1.8

1.7

1.2

2.3

0.8

1.9

0.9

1.1

1.7

1.6

1.4

Italy 0.7

-0.5

-0.4

0.9

-

1.0

0.9

2.2

2.2

2.8

1.0

1.1

Norway 2.6

1.0

4.5

1.2

2.9

1.9

1.1

-0.5

1.3

6.9

5.6

2.8

3.4

2.0

2.3

2.3

6.1

4.5

6.1

3.3

2.5

Romania 4.1

6.1

4.1

5.3

3.8

4.3

1.2

0.6

5.1

4.5

2.6

1.4

4.4

4.5

Turkey 2.6

-1.7

-6.1

-9.4

0.1

-

22.4

Emerging markets 4.7

4.0

3.8

4.0

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

2.7

2.6

ing the direction of changes. Underline indicates beginning of J.P. Morgan forecasts. Unless noted, concurrent nominal GDP weights calculated with current FX rates are used in

computing our global and regional aggregates. Regional CPI aggregates exclude Argentina, Ecuador and Venezuela. Regional GDP aggregates exclude Venezuela. Forecasts for

Argentina are based on JPMorgan’s estimates of CPI. Source: J.P. Morgan