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Equity Research
15 April 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 45.
Restricted
- Internal
Medical Supplies & Devices
Earnings Previews
Earnings kick of Tuesday with J&J: 1Q earnings for MedTech kick off of Tuesday with
J&J (co-covered with our U.S. Biopharmaceutical analyst, Geoff Meacham) reporting its
results. J&J’s Medical Device business provides a host of read-thrus for the rest of the
sector, particularly the orthopedic companies. Overall, we expect most companies to
report strong results and believe as in the past several quarters, any surprises are likely
to be positive. We had a number of companies at the Barclays Healthcare Conference in
mid-March and our takeaways from those presentations, as well as subsequent
conversations with management teams, were that the overall MedTech market
conditions remained favorable and that each corporate had confidence in its forecast.
The one area where we do have some concerns is paclitaxel drug-coated balloons
(DCBs) as we believe the FDA Letter to Healthcare Professionals is likely to result in
softer sales until greater clarity on the safety profile is gained. We expect sales to be
pressured at least until the FDA Advisory Committee meeting, which is expected to take
place in June. Both Becton Dickinson and Medtronic sell paclitaxel DCBs.
Updating our models ahead of 1Q: In this report, we have updated our models to
reflect 10K/10Q updates and our updated thoughts on the end markets. We have
incorporated into our models sales reductions for DCBs, which resulted in a reduction in
sales for both Becton Dickinson as well as Medtronic. Given DCBs are above corporate
average margins, we have reduced our earnings estimate for Becton Dickinson. For
Medtronic, we believe the recent debt refinancing (which we have updated our model
for) allows the company to offset the DCB loss thus our EPS estimates are unchanged.
Please see the Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this
Report on page 2 for more details.
Updating our price targets: We have raised a number of price targets to reflect a
higher target PE to maintain each stock’s respective relative PE valuation. We continue
to believe the sector should trade at a premium to the S&P 500. Please see the
Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report on page 2
for more details.
Our stock views: Our ratings are unchanged. We continue to see upside for ABT,
CNMD, MDT, and SYK. In the case of MDT, we do have some concerns on the FY20
outlook as we believe it is likely to a slower growth year though we think expectations
are likely already “there.” While we rate both the stocks Equal Weight, HRC and TFX
were very upbeat at our conference and we believe both may have good quarters. We
also rate BAX and BDX Equal Weight. We rate AVNS Equal Weight, and ZBH
Underweight. We believe AVNS and EW’s quarters may be mixed as both have more
back-end loaded years. ZBH management’s comments at recent investor meetings
(including AAOS) seemed more positive toned, thus we would not be surprised to see a
“good” quarter (“good” in the context of Zimmer Biomet and relative to expectations).
EARNINGS PREVIEW
U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices
POSITIVE
Unchanged
For a full list of our ratings, price target and
earnings changes in this report, please see
table on page 2.
U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices
Kristen Stewart, CFA
+1 212 526 6965
kristen.stewart@barclays.com
BCI, US
Patrick Dearchs, CFA
+1 212-526-2404
Patrick.Dearchs@barclays.com
BCI, US
Josiah Hannon
+ 1 212 526 4155
josiah.hannon@barclays.com
BCI, US
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