21 July 2019
Animal Tracks 4
Veterinary survey takeaways
We commissioned a survey of 75 practicing veterinarians dispersed across 27 states in
the U.S., with the highest number of responses in Pennsylvania (8), Texas (8), Florida (6),
Colorado (5), New York (5), Tennessee (5), North Carolina (4), California (3), Illinois (3),
Indiana (3), and Mississippi (3). Respondents were exclusively small/companion animal
veterinarians with an average tenure of 17 years, essentially consistent with previous
surveys (historical avg = 21 years).
2Q Survey Executive Summary by Company
■ Zoetis (ZTS, Outperform)—Top pick in Animal Health: The survey results bode well
for ZTS's US companion animal business (31% of sales), where we forecast 2Q19
segment revenue to rise 20% (+6% ex-ABAXIS), on contributions from ABAXIS and
continued drivers in leading atopic dermatitis products Apoquel and Cytopoint, also
supported by our survey work. The majority (69%) of vets selected ZTS as the best
positioned animal health company (vs. 56% in 1Q).
Our survey revealed continued broad-based enthusiasm for Cytopoint, with 19% of
respondents ranking the monoclonal antibody as one of the most impactful products to
practice sales currently, more than any other product in our survey. Cytopoint sales
rose 95% in 2018, to $129 million, and we forecast a 19% rise in 2019, to $154 million,
with growth of +34% internationally and +16% in the US, where we may be
conservative, given the overwhelmingly positive feedback in the survey.
Our survey also highlights surprising strength in Simparica, with our respondents
noting they prescribe the chewable flea/tick parasiticide to 30% of patients. As a
reminder, Simparica sales accelerated 72% in 2018 to $158 million, and we view it can
continue to gain share in a fast-growing, albeit competitive est. $4 billion parasiticide
category. In 2019, we forecast Simparica to generate revenue of $190 million (+20%).
Veterinarians were also optimistic on the potential blockbuster Simparica Trio, its
flea/tick/heartworm combination product that is in development with estimated
commercialization in time for the all-important 2020 flea and tick season (1Q20, with
potential approval in the coming quarters likely offering a catalyst for the stock).
According to our survey, 63% (vs. 56% in 1Q) of respondents noted they would be
inclined to prescribe the product (assuming it is safe and effective). See our analysis of
the broader flea/tick/heartworm market in our note (Animal Tracks: Triple Play).
Of note, several respondents noted Proheart 12 (heartworm) as a compelling new
product, which is impressive given its relatively recent launch on July 2.
In Dog’nostics, ZTS is in the midst of ABAXIS integration, with completion of SAP
migration expected in early 2020 (delayed from 2H19), at which point we view the
combined company will be better positioned to more seamlessly bundle ZTS
therapeutics with the legacy ABAXIS portfolio with opportunities to expand
internationally and into livestock longer term. We view cross-selling should offer
substantial opportunities for future growth, leveraging its extensive sales force footprint.
Focus into ZTS’s 2Q print will be on organic revenue growth, 2019 guidance updates,
ABAXIS integration, FX, Livestock trends, and the R&D pipeline update (i.e., Nexvet
mAbs for pain, Simparica Trio, others). All in, in 2Q we forecast organic topline growth
(ex-ABAXIS and FX) of +5%, EBITDA margin contraction of 9 bps on residual ABAXIS
dilution, and EPS of $0.84 (+9%, vs. consensus $0.82). Note, a higher tax rate (20-
21%) represents a $0.02 headwind to 2Q EPS.
■ Elanco Animal Health (ELAN, Neutral): Our cohort of vets ranked ELAN as the third
best positioned Animal Health company, behind ZTS and Merial/Boehringer Ingelheim.
Digging into its product portfolio, respondents were encouragingly positive on