Managed Care
Annual Health Benefits Survey – 2020 Outlook;
Some Moderation in Premium Growth, But
Pricing Still to Exceed Cost Growth
We surveyed 676 health benefit managers regarding their plans for health benefits for 2020.
We asked their views about health insurers, cost trends, premium expectations, and priorities.
■ 2020 Premium Growth to Moderate but Still Increase Faster than Cost Trend
Expectations. Employee premiums are expected to increase 5.4%, on avg (vs 6.1% a
year ago). This compares with an expected gross medical cost increase of 5.1% Y/Y for
2020 (vs a 5.1% Y/Y increase expectation in our 2019 survey). Benefit buydowns are
expected to reduce employers' net medical cost trend increases by approx. 130 bps (vs
150 bps last year), bringing the expected net medical cost trend to a 3.8% Y/Y increase in
2020 (vs a 3.6% Y/Y expected increase for 2019 in our survey last year). Similar to last
year, “Specialty drug costs” was seen most often as the primary driver of medical cost
growth, followed by “Proliferation of high cost claimants” and “Drug costs generally.” On a
weighted avg basis, employers expect overall drug costs to increase by 5.5% Y/Y in 2020,
a step down from the expected 6.0% Y/Y drug cost increase expected for 2019.
■ In Aggregate, all Major MCOs Improved or Had Stable Competitive Positioning
Y/Y. Across major national health plans (Aetna, Blues, Cigna, and UnitedHealthcare),
aggregate scores were either relatively stable or improved versus last year. The Y/Y
improvement was highest for Aetna (0.06 pts or 1.6%), followed by Blues (0.05 pts or
1.3%). Under Customer Services, all major health plans showed improvement Y/Y, with
the rating for Blues increasing the most. In the Care/Condition Management category,
Aetna and the Blues showed improvement Y/Y, while CI was stable and UNH declined by
0.02 pts (0.5%). Under Plan Support & Tools, Aetna, Blues, and CI showed Y/Y
improvement, while UNH declined 0.08 pts (2.2%). Finally, under Networks, Blues
maintained their leadership but the scores for Aetna (up 2.9%) improved the most Y/Y.
Across all MCOs in the survey, non-ANTM BCBS was the leader, on an aggregate basis.
Among public MCOs, CI took the leading position, followed by UNH and Aetna.
■ Medical Cost Trends in 2019 In-Line to Slightly Higher than Expectations. Among
self-insured employers, 33% of respondents (vs 36% last year) are seeing higher gross
medical costs than their expectation heading into 2019. Some 51% see 2019 medical
costs in-line with expectations, while 16% have experienced a favorable trend in 2019.
■ Fewer Employers are Issuing RFPs for 2020. While a greater percentage of
respondents have their PBM contracts up for renewal for 2020 (72% vs 64%), only 26%
of respondents plan to formally release a new RFP for their PBM relationship in 2020 (vs.
36% issuing or planning to issue an RFP for 2019 in our survey last year). Some 46% of
respondents have chosen to renew their existing PBM vendor for 2020 which is consistent
with results from our survey last year (43% of respondents). This could be explained by
various factors including PBMs aggressively trying to maintain their current customer base
without going through an RFP process, changing PBMs can be highly disruptive and some
employers may be choosing not to disrupt their employee base during a time when
employment is tight, employers may have done informal market checks by gauging the
outcomes of some high profile re-bids, etc.
3 October 2019
Equity Research
Americas | United States
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LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do
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investment decision.
Research Analysts
A.J. Rice
212 325 8134
aj.rice@credit-suisse.com
Eduardo Ron
212 325 7491
eduardo.ron@credit-suisse.com
Jailendra Singh
212 325 8121
jailendra.singh@credit-suisse.com
Caleb Harris, CPA
212 325 7458
caleb.harris@credit-suisse.com