层次分析法应用案例

摘 要

应用层次分析法，通过建立递阶层次结构和判断矩阵，并结合定性评价和定量评

价，对投资股票项目中的股票进行评价和排序，进而做出合理的选择决策。本文首先

论述了股票的基本特征：1、不可偿还性，2、参与性，3、收益性，4、流通性，5、价

格波动性和风险性。并依据基本特征与现实市场相联系，确立了文章所需要分析的影

响股票的主要因素，即宏观因素、主观因素、客观因素和技术因素。通过对各个主要

因素的认识和分析，确立了影响各主要因素的现实因素，即影响宏观因素的国家经济、

大盘走势、经济政策和突发事件；影响主观因素的期限偏好、内部信息和风险偏好；

ABSTRACT

AHP(the Analytical Hierarchy Process) is used to evaluate and rank of stocks in

investment. After building up the hierarchy structure and the judgment matrix, a reasonable

selecting decision is made by combinating the qualitative and quantitative analysis. This

article first elaborated the stock essential feature: 1st, may not the repayment, 2nd,

participations, 3rd, rentabilities, 4th, conductivities, 5th, price undulatory property and the

risk. And rested on the essential feature and the realistic market relates, has established the

influence stock primary factor which the article needed to analyze, namely macroscopic

factor, subjective factor, objective factor and technical factor. Through to each primary

(stochastic target). According to analytic hierarchy process's basic philosophy establishment

target stratum, the criterion level with the sub-criterion level, establishes the judgment matrix,

the establishment qualitative appraisal and the quantitative evaluation, thus makes the quota to

the stock the quality synthetic evaluation. At last, a practical case study is given to show that

AHP is a useful and effective method in stock selection.

Key words: AHP; stock-selection; decision making

目 录

前言……………………………………………………………………………………… 1

第一章 选股主要因素分析………………………………………………………………3

1.1 宏观因素……………………………………………………………………… 3

第二章 层次分析法与股票选择……………………………………………………… 8

第三章 应用层次分析法进行股票…………………………………………………… 9

3.1 层次结构模型的建立………………………………………………………… 9

3.2 构造判断矩阵…………………………………………………………………10

3.3 权重计算………………………………………………………………………11

致谢……………………………………………………………………………………… 20

参考文献………………………………………………………………………………… 21