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North America Equity Research
21 January 2020
Life Science Tools &
Diagnostics
Final Takeaways From J.P. Morgan Healthcare
Conference
Life Science Tools & Diagnostics
Tycho W. Peterson
AC
(1-212) 622-6568
Bloomberg JPMA PETERSON <GO>
Tejas Savant
(1-212) 622-5650
Julia Qin, CFA
(1-212) 622-9253
Eleni Apostolatos
(1-212) 622-0136
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
See page 56 for analyst
certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aw
are that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thi
s report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Following the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference last week, we wanted to pass
along key takeaways from the meeting for the life science tools, diagnostics,
CRO/CDMO and med tech group, as well as for the 35 companies in our coverage
universe that presented.
Core tools companies generally sounded positive… Tools companies across
the board highlighted a stable end market outlook, sustained biopharma
momentum and unchanged industrial trends. Looking closer, Danaher (DHR)
pre-announced 4Q core growth of +5.5%, 100 bps above guidance, despite
difficult comps, driven by Life Sciences (in particular, PLL Biotech) and
Diagnostics (in particular, CPHD, with flu tailwinds, but also broad-based
strength), while E&A remained solid. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) did
not provide an update on 4Q, although management noted no significant end
market changes, with biopharma (40% of revenues) remaining strong, while
industrial comps ease in 2H20. Agilent (A), which previously guided to +4-5%
core growth for FY20, highlighted a growing biopharma portfolio (~12% of
sales, growing +DD), including cell analysis, NGS and NASD, spanning
upstream R&D and downstream manufacturing, with management also noting
abundant opportunities within ACG (portfolio expansion) to enhance growth
and margin expansion.
... albeit with some incremental conservatism baked into guidance, by some.
As noted Agilent (A) previously guided to +4-5% core growth in FY20 (vs.
expectations for +4.5-5.5% at the time), which conservatively assumes flat core
growth in LSAG and +MSD growth in China, with potential upside from Food
and C&E. For the new NASD facility ($100M incremental run-rate capacity),
management noted that $50M is in the ballpark (assuming a linear ramp during
the year). Bruker (BRKR) now expects 2019 full-year revenues at or near the
high end of guidance of +4.5-5.5% organic, implying 4Q revenue growth of
+5% (+2% ex-NMR), while for 2020, management continues to have muted
expectations for China, given the recent order slowdown and paperwork delays.
Mettler Toledo (MTD) previously guided to +4% LC growth in 2020 (below
the long-term model of 5% organic), which factors in difficult comps (especially
for Industrial) and macro conservatism, although management noted no change
in target markets, other than continued weakness in Food Retail and CPG. The
2020 outlook for MTD assumes +MSD growth in Lab, +LSD in Core Industrial,
+LSD-MSD in PI (CPG companies are not expected to resume capex) and
+LSD in Food Retail (on easy comps, although 1H could see a slight decline).
China is expected to moderate to +MSD in 2020, reflecting conservatism on the
Industrial side. Finally, PerkinElmer (PKI) did not reaffirm the prior target of
+HSD organic growth in 2020, but noted it feels confident in achieving above-
market growth (market growing 4-6%) in the mid to long term, although
management would not confirm in the breakout whether this implies potential
guidance for +MSD growth (or something higher) in 2020.
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