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JP 摩根-美股-医疗保健行业-美国医疗行业:消费者对恢复选择程序的看法-5-55页.pdf
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JP 摩根-美股-医疗保健行业-美国医疗行业:消费者对恢复选择程序的看法-5-55页.pdf
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1
US Healthcare
What Consumers Are Saying About Resuming Elective Procedures
See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
North America Equity Research
May 2020
Medical Supplies & Devices
Robbie Marcus, CFA
AC
+1 212 622 6657
Robert.j.marcus@jpmorgan.com
HC Technology & Distribution
Lisa Gill
AC
+1 212 622 6466
Lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com
HC Facilities & Managed Care
Gary Taylor
AC
+1 212 622 6600
Gary.taylor@jpmorgan.com
Life Science Tools &
Diagnostics
Tycho Peterson
AC
+1 212 622 6568
Tycho.peterson@jpmorgan.com
European MedTech &
Services
David Adlington
AC
207 134 5828
David.adlington@jpmorgan.com|
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88115103/bg2.jpg)
2
Life Science Tools & Diagnostics
Elective procedure pushouts and hospital capex spending continue to look bleak amidst the pandemic (for more color on
the latter, see our hospital capex survey)
We continue to recommend select exposure. In particular, we would avoid some dental names in light of a slower recovery
in elective procedures (i.e. XRAY), as well as radiation oncology (i.e., VAR, ARAY), which remains prone to a more lasting
hospital capex budget freeze and changing reimbursement, while we note that ISRG plans to use the balance sheet
aggressively to place capital under an operating lease model, which should offer some cushion. Lastly, we remain
constructive on HOLX, in light of the COVID-19 diagnostic tailwinds, among other things.
Outside of med tech and dental, we remain positive (and Overweight) on several diversified life science tools names
(AVTR, DHR), smid cap growth companies (ADPT, GH, NTRA, TXG) and CRO/CDMOs (CRL, CTLT, IQV, PPD). We
remain Underweight on LMNX, MYGN, QDEL, VAR and WAT.
MedTech
Managed Care & Healthcare Facilities
““Goldilocks Prevails” - 72% of those with a deferred medical procedure stated they were willing to undergo the
procedure either “now” or “within a few months as crisis eases”.
Hospitals & Providers: This seems fairly bullish for hospitals off the down 50% April lows; particularly given the
responses were collected over 5/5-5/11/20 as states were just beginning to re-open social movement and elective
procedures.
Managed Care: The data is still plenty benign for managed care medical loss ratios (MLR); 38% of previously-
scheduled cases are not willing to come back until there is treatment or vaccine development.
Two modest surprises from this same subset of patients: 1) no material skew of outpatient vs inpatient (more
positive for hospitals vs ASCs than we would have guessed), and 2) a slight skew of government vs commercial
insurance (slightly worse returning payor mix for hospitals than we would have guessed given frailty of senior
population vs younger commercial population).
With more than a third of respondents planning to wait until a treatment or vaccine becomes available, this reaffirms our
view that COVID-19 will have lasting impacts well-beyond 2Q20
Disruptions to the pipeline of patients could also stifle the recovery, with only 36% of patients currently seeing a physician
either in-person or virtually.
Sector Takeaways
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88115103/bg3.jpg)
3
Healthcare Services
Telehealth: We believe the results are broadly bullish as it relates to continued adoption of telehealth. While 32% of
total respondents have had a telehealth consult in the past, 69% of total respondents indicated they would be willing
to have a telehealth consult in the future. Satisfaction appears high, with 79% of respondents that have had a
telehealth consult in the past indicating that they would be willing to do it again in the future. We believe these results
reinforce our positive views on Teladoc Health (TDOC/OW) and One Medical (ONEM/OW), as new users and positive
experiences should lead to increasing comfort around future use of telehealth across a range of conditions.
Clinical Labs: 61% of respondents were not willing to wait more than 3 months to have a test performed, which we
view as a positive take for the labs, which saw a 50-60% decline in volumes from healthcare utilization deferrals.
Digging further into the question, 84% of respondents would not be willing to wait more than 6 months from the time
of the survey to defer testing. This is consistent with commentary they have started to see volumes return faster and
to a greater extent than they had anticipated, and would represent upside to our models.
Healthcare IT: Within Healthcare IT, Change Healthcare, Progyny, and Phreesia have the largest utilization exposure
at 40-50%, 55% and 100% respectively. Looking at the survey results, 55% of respondents who did not have a
procedure deferred would be willing to undergo a medical procedure within a few months, while 72% of those that
had deferred procedures would be willing to return. This echoes commentary from 1Q calls around pent-up demand,
which we view as favorable to our models.
Sector Takeaways (cont.)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88115103/bg4.jpg)
4
European MedTech
Orthopedics – Smith & Nephew, Medacta
S&N has been relatively cautious on pace of near term rebound – confirmed by this survey. Also wary of
increased pricing pressure in near to mid-term. Medacta – has indicated it expects to see earlier demand come
back into ASCs, with hospitals coming back later (not confirmed by the survey)
Dental – Straumann
The key data point on dental implants was that procedures have been deferred rather than cancelled, and are
almost all being rescheduled for next 3-6 months. What this survey doesn’t capture is how any economic impact
might influence future decisions
Cardiovascular – Philips, Getinge
While a relatively small part of Philips, the CV business is profitable (particularly the consumables) and high growth
and was hit hard on late Q1/early Q2. An early rebound is probably factored into expectations and this looks to be
confirmed by the survey
Surgical Urology – Coloplast
Coloplast cut guidance for this year, almost exclusively citing weakness in their surgical urology business - backed
up by the survey, with no respondents who had had an endoscopy or urology procedure deferred saying they would
get a procedure done immediately if possible, with 54% indicating that they would defer it by 6 months or longer.
Hopes of early rebound seem unlikely
Hospital capex – Philips, Siemens Healthineers, Elekta, Getinge
While not directly assessed as part of this survey, a slower patient rebound likely has implications for Hospital capex
budgets, something we have addressed directly with our hospital capex survey
Sector Takeaways (cont.)
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88115103/bg5.jpg)
5
Demographic Selection Criteria
We conducted a survey of 544 patients through Survey Monkey with the following
criteria:
Data was collected between May 5-11, 2020
Respondents were selected so that ~2/3 were over the age of 65 and ~1/3 under the age
of 65
We expected higher healthcare system utilization among an older demographic
Respondents were selected so that ~1/2 of patients had a procedure deferred due to
disruptions from COVID-19, and ~1/2 who had not had a procedure deferred.
Patients didn’t have to answer every question, that’s the reason for minor discrepancies in
sample sizes. We did not edit or exclude and responses.
Survey Methodology
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