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2023年顶级技术和媒体发展趋势报告(英文版).pdf
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2023年顶级技术和媒体发展趋势报告(英文版).pdf
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www.activate.com
ACTIVATE TECHNOLOGY & MEDIA
OUTLOOK 2023
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1
Continued ➔
11 Takeaways from the
Activate Technology & Media Outlook 2023
Time and Attention: User time spent with technology and media jumped during the pandemic by
almost an hour, and that level has largely been sustained. More consumer time will lead to new
opportunities to grow revenues and build new businesses.
eCommerce and Marketplaces: By 2026, we forecast that 20% of retail sales in the U.S. will be
through eCommerce. The growth will be fueled by large eCommerce players as well as category-
focused businesses across all consumer categories. Even high-ticket categories such as automotive,
jewelry, and furniture will accelerate their move online. A number of consumer trends including
interest and adoption of re-commerce, livestream shopping, BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later), and
shopping memberships will be growth accelerators.
Video: TikTok will be one of the most disruptive forces, not only in video but also in messaging,
search, and eCommerce. Consumer time in streaming and social video will surpass that of television.
The streaming wars will intensify, leading to bundled offerings of streaming services to lower
acquisition costs and churn, increased spend on originals, advertising-supported tiers, and focus on
international growth – all to drive subscriber growth and profitability.
Gaming and Esports: Video gaming is a mainstream behavior appealing to a diverse array of
users, from habitual gamers who embrace gaming as a lifestyle to occasional gamers. Habitual
Gamers will be the earliest adopters of the Metaverse as they already take advantage of
opportunities for immersive activities within games today.
NFTs: The consumer use cases for NFTs will move away from speculative investments into more
tangible use cases, rooted in community, loyalty, and collecting. We estimate that NFT revenues
globally have already exceeded $23B in 2022 and we forecast continued growth in the coming years.
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2
11 Takeaways from the
Activate Technology & Media Outlook 2023
Metaverse: Most of the foundational elements of the Metaverse are already here in video games.
Over 300M people are spending a large part of their lives in Metaverse virtual worlds. People and
companies cannot stand by and wait for the Metaverse to happen. Now is the time for sustained
development and investment in practical applications. There will be vast opportunities for
companies who can be part of the “interoperability layer.” Super Users are the “Metaverse Natives''
and will lead the way to the Metaverse for gamers and non-gamers alike. To scale, most experiences
will be in 2D as we forecast that global sales of VR and AR headsets will grow to 44M units by 2026.
Audio: Digital audio will lead to more time and spend on music and more advertising for podcasts.
Most people are using multiple music services. TikTok is reshaping how users discover and engage
with music. In-person live event revenue will surpass pre-COVID-19 levels, and virtual live events are
here to stay. Podcasts are one of the fastest growing user behaviors and will reach nearly 160M U.S.
listeners by 2026.
Sports and Sports Betting: Sports fan consumption and engagement is in a transitional period
– a new generation of consumers is emerging, live sports are moving to streaming, and sports
betting is becoming an increasingly prevalent consumer behavior.
Digital Fitness: Consumer adoption of digital fitness technologies has significantly increased
since the COVID-19 outbreak. We forecast that this growth will continue, reaching a combined $30B
in revenue by 2026, up from $23B today. Going forward, virtual reality will enhance digital fitness
experiences in the Metaverse.
Super Users: It will be critical for technology and media companies to identify, reach, and super-
serve Super Users, who account for 22% of the population and heavily over-index on time and dollar
spend. Super Users are “Metaverse Natives,” with over 80% having used a Metaverse platform over
the last 12 months.
Technology and Media Revenues: We forecast over $400B in global spend by 2026, as
consumers continue to spend on technology and media through economic uncertainty.
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3
CONTENTS
PAGE
$420B Global Technology and Media Growth Dollars Up for Grabs
4
Consumer Technology and Media Time and Attention
9
Super Users: The Critical Segment for Technology and Media Companies
15
eCommerce and Marketplaces: Growth will Continue Across Categories
With Major Consumer Trends Serving as Tailwinds
29
Video: Streaming and Social Drive Growth
47
Gaming and Esports: A Mainstream Behavior and Precursor to The Metaverse
78
NFTs: Past the Hype Cycle, Towards Tangible Use Cases
95
Metaverse: Time for Practical Applications
108
Audio: Digital Audio Will Drive More Consumer Time and Spend
138
Sports and Sports Betting: Younger Next-Gen Sports Fans Drive Growth
152
Digital Fitness: Consumer Adoption Will Continue to Grow
167
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www.activate.com
4
CONTENTS
PAGE
$420B Global Technology and Media Growth Dollars Up for Grabs
4
Consumer Technology and Media Time and Attention
9
Super Users: The Critical Segment for Technology and Media Companies
15
eCommerce and Marketplaces: Growth will Continue Across Categories
With Major Consumer Trends Serving as Tailwinds
29
Video: Streaming and Social Drive Growth
47
Gaming and Esports: A Mainstream Behavior and Precursor to The Metaverse
78
NFTs: Past the Hype Cycle, Towards Tangible Use Cases
95
Metaverse: Time for Practical Applications
108
Audio: Digital Audio Will Drive More Consumer Time and Spend
138
Sports and Sports Betting: Younger Next-Gen Sports Fans Drive Growth
152
Digital Fitness: Consumer Adoption Will Continue to Grow
167
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