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世界银行一带一路经济学交通走廊的机遇与风险.pdf
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世界银行一带一路经济学交通走廊的机遇与风险.pdf
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BELT AND ROAD ECONOMICS
1
BELT AND
ROAD ECONOMICS
Opportunities and risks of
transport corridors
2
BELT AND ROAD ECONOMICS
The text of this advance edition is a work in progress for the forthcoming book, Belt and
Road Economics: Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors (DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1392-
4). A PDF of the nal book, once published, will be available at https://openknowledge.
worldbank.org/ and http://documents.worldbank.org/, and print copies can be ordered
at www.amazon.com. Please use the nal version of the book for citation, reproduction
and adaptation purposes.
© 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org
Some rights reserved
This work is a product of the sta of The World Bank with external contributions. The ndings,
interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reect the views of The World
Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not
guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and
other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World
Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and
immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specically reserved.
Rights and Permissions
This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,
you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under
the following conditions:
Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2019. “Belt and Road Economics:
Opportunities and Risks of Transport Corridors.” Advance Edition. World Bank, Washington, DC.
License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO
Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the
attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an ocial
World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.
Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along
with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions
expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are
not endorsed by The World Bank.
Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content
contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-
owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third
parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use
a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that
re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are
not limited to, tables, gures, or images.
All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank
Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.
BELT AND ROAD ECONOMICS
3
Acknowledgments
This study has been written by Michele Ruta (Team Leader; Lead Economist,
Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment), Matias Herrera Dappe (Senior Economist, Transport),
Somik Lall (Lead Economist, Social, Urban, Rural, & Resilience), and Chunlin Zhang (Lead
Private Sector Specialist, Finance, Competitiveness & Innovation), with Erik Churchill
(Consultant, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment), Cristina Constantinescu (Economist,
Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment), Mathilde Lebrand (Economist, Transport), and Alen
Mulabdic (Analyst, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment).
The study is an output of a multi-GP research program led by the Macroeconomics, Trade
& Investment Global Practice in collaboration with the Transport, Finance, Competitiveness
& Innovation, and Social, Urban, Rural, & Resilience Global Practices. Caroline Freund
(Director, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment) provided guidance and supervision.
The content draws on background papers and inputs produced by Luca Bandiera, Suprabha
Baniya, Marcus Bartley Johns, Paulo Bastos, Julia Bird, Mauro Boa, Cecilia Briceno-
Garmendia, Masud Cader, Alexander Cantor, Maggie Chen, Julian Latimer Clarke, Cristina
Constantinescu, Ben Derudder, Francois De Soyres, Tania Ghossein, David Gould, Puja Guha,
Daniel Zerfu Gurara, Bernard Hoekman, Tim Kelly, Clay Kerswell, Priyanka Kher, Charles
Kunaka, Somik Lall, Mathilde Lebrand, Chuanhao Lin, Clay Lin, Mingqing Liu, Xingjian Liu,
Elizabeth Losos, Maryla Maliszewska, Sara Mason, Gerard McLinden, Vikram Menon, Seth
Morgan, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Lydia Olander, Georgi Panterov, Alex Pfa, Tristan
Reed, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, Dimitry Sivaev, Shujie Shao, Anirudh Shingal, Daria
Taglioni, Hua Tan, Trang Thu Tran, Alexandr Trubetskoy, Vasileios Tsiropoulos, Dominique van
der Mensbrugghe, Tony Venables, Christina Wiederer, and Douglas Zhihua Zeng.
All nalized papers, data, and blogs have been posted on the World Bank website created
and maintained by Erin Scronce (Communications Ocer, ECREF) and are available at
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road-initiative.
The team would like to thank for their guidance and comments Ceyla Pazarbasioglu (Vice
President, GGEVP), Makhtar Diop (Vice President, GGIVP), Laura Tuck (Vice President,
GGSVP), Victoria Kwakwa (Vice President, EAPVP), Cyril Muller (Vice President, ECAVP),
the late Jan Walliser (former Vice President, GGEVP), Penny Goldberg (Chief Economist,
WBG), Hans Peter Lankes (Vice President, CEDVP), Lilia Burunciuc (Country Director,
ECCCA), Bert Hofman (former Country Director, EACCF), Martin Raiser (Country
Director, EACCF), Guangzhe Chen (Sr. Director, GTRTR), Shantayanan Devarajan (Sr.
Director, DECVP), Karin Kemper (Sr. Director, GENDR), Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez (Sr. Director,
SURR), Deborah L. Wetzel (Sr. Director, GGODR), Zoubida Allaoua (Director, GFCDR),
Franz R. Drees-Gross (Director, GTDDR), Simeon Djankov (Director, DECCE), Sameh
Wahba (Director, SURR), Rabah Arezki (Chief Economist, MNACE), Asli Demirguc-
Acknowledgments
4
BELT AND ROAD ECONOMICS
Kunt (Chief Economist, ECACE), Marianne Fay (Chief Economist, GGSCE), Vivien Foster
(Chief Economist, INF), Bill Maloney (Chief Economist, EFI), Andrew Mason (acting Chief
Economist, EAPCE), Martin Rama (former Chief Economist, SARCE), Sudhir Shetty
(former Chief Economist, EAPCE), Hans Timmer (Chief Economist, SARCE), Albert G.
Zeufack (Chief Economist, AFRCE), Chang Yong Rhee (Director, APD, IMF), Antonio
Nucifora (Practice Manager, GMTRI), and Binyam Reja (Practice Manager, GTR10).
Many colleagues, inside and outside the World Bank Group, provided useful suggestions at
various stages: Paul Amos, Swee Ee Ang, Elmas Arisoy, Bernard Aritua, Erhan Artuc, Valerio
Crispolti, Bekele Debele, Doerte Doemeland, David Dollar, Baher El-Hifnawi, Michael
Ferrantino, Kathryn Funk, Indermit Gill, Anabel González, Rakesh Gupta Nichanametla,
Alvaro Espitia Rueda, Richard Martin Humphreys, Martha Lawrence, Daniel Lederman,
Peter Leonard, Jean-Francois Marteau, Aaditya Mattoo, Antonio Nunez, Israel Osorio-
Rodarte, Cordula Rastogi, Daniel Reyes, David Rosenblatt, Julie Rozenberg, Susan Shen,
Michael Toman, and Nicolaus Von Der Goltz.
Joseph Rebello (Communications Lead, MTI) assisted the team in the production of the
report. Bruce Ross-Larson and a team at Communications Development Incorporated
edited the report. The graphic concept, design, and layout were carried out by Guillermo
Varela and Estudio Prado. The cover artwork was created by Sasha Trubetskoy.
The team also thanks Rashi Jain in Washington, D.C., and Shanshan Ye in Beijing for
their assistance in preparing the missions that supported this report.
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