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MGI_Disruptive_technologies_Executive_summary_May2013
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介绍了IT发展中的若干关键技术,这些技术将会给社会与经济发展到来巨大的变革。
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McKinsey Global Institute
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
McKinsey Global Institute
Disruptive technologies:
Advances that will
transform life, business,
and the global economy
May 2013
Copyright © McKinsey & Company 2013
The McKinsey Global Institute
The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research
arm of McKinsey & Company, was established in 1990 to develop a deeper
understanding of the evolving global economy. Our goal is to provide leaders
in the commercial, public, and social sectors with the facts and insights on
which to base management and policy decisions.
MGI research combines the disciplines of economics and management,
employing the analytical tools of economics with the insights of business
leaders. Our “micro-to-macro” methodology examines microeconomic
industry trends to better understand the broad macroeconomic forces
affecting business strategy and public policy. MGI’s in-depth reports
have covered more than 20 countries and 30 industries. Current research
focuses on four themes: productivity and growth, the evolution of global
financial markets, the economic impact of technology and innovation,
and urbanization. Recent reports have assessed job creation, resource
productivity, cities of the future, and the impact of the Internet.
MGI is led by McKinsey & Company directors Richard Dobbs and James
Manyika. Yougang Chen, Michael Chui, Susan Lund, and Jaana Remes
serve as MGI principals. Project teams are led by a group of senior fellows
and include consultants from McKinsey’s offices around the world. These
teams draw on McKinsey’s global network of partners and industry and
management experts. In addition, leading economists, including Nobel
laureates, act as research advisers.
The partners of McKinsey & Company fund MGI’s research; it is not
commissioned by any business, government, or other institution.
For further information about MGI and to download reports, please visit
www.mckinsey.com/mgi.
3D-printing photo courtesy of Andy Ryan, Formlabs
McKinsey Global Institute
Disruptive technologies:
Advances that will
transform life, business,
and the global economy
James Manyika
Michael Chui
Jacques Bughin
Richard Dobbs
Peter Bisson
Alex Marrs
May 2013
Connecting rate of improvement
and reach today …
$5million vs. $400
Price of the fastest supercomputer in 1975
1
and an iPhone 4 with equal performance
230+million
Knowledge workers in 2012
$2.7billion, 13years
Cost and duration of the Human Genome Project,
completed in 2003
300,000+
Miles driven by Google’s autonomous cars
with only one accident (human error)
3x
Increase in efciency of
NorthAmerican gas wells
between 2007 and 2011
85%
Drop in cost per watt of a solar
photovoltaic cell since 2000
1 For CDC-7600, considered the world’s fastest computer from 1969 to 1975; equivalent to $32million in 2013 at an average inflation
rate of 4.3percent per year since launch in 1969.
… with economic potential
in 2025
2–3billion
More people with access to the Internet in 2025
$5–7trillion
Potential economic impact by 2025
of automation of knowledge work
$100, 1 hour
Cost and time to sequence a human genome
in the next decade
2
1.5million
Driver-caused deaths from car accidents in 2025,
potentially addressable by autonomous vehicles
100–200%
Potential increase in NorthAmerican oil
production by 2025, driven by hydraulic
fracturing and horizontal drilling
16%
Potential share of solar and wind in
global electricity generation by 2025
3
2 Derek Thompson, “IBM’s killer idea: The $100 DNA-sequencing machine,” The Atlantic, November 16, 2011.
3 Assuming continued cost declines in solar and wind technology and policy support for meeting the global environmental target of
CO
2
concentration lower than 450 ppm by 2050.
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