2018美赛O奖论文B题-B77238-解密.pdf资源-CSDN文库

版权申诉

数学竞赛

77 浏览量 2024-03-17 21:49:16 上传评论收藏 1.53MB PDF 举报

资源推荐

资源详情

资源评论

For office use only

Team Control Number

77238

Problem Chosen

For office use only

2018

MCM/ICM

Summary Sheet

Summary

Thousands of languages are spoken around on the Earth, and over 40% of people take one of

the top ten most spoken language as their mother tongue. Meanwhile, more and more people are

learning a second language to meet the rapid development of economy and globalization.

Aimed to predict the distribution of widespread language speakers over the next 50 years, we

build a Language Development Model, and apply it to countries with a population over 10 million

to describe the possibility of the new generation in a certain country studying a certain second

language. We employ the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the specific

parameters, and carry out stochastic simulation on Python to produce the results, which shows that

mild change takes place on the list of popular languages – only two of the top-10 languages are

replaced, while the total number of speakers of several languages gains an impressive increase.

Based on the language distribution model we obtain, we develop a Location Determination

Model. The dual-solution model further provide a recommendation for a large multinational

service company to select the location of their new international office. One of the solution is

oriented by language structure, and the other by geographic condition. Taking language

distribution as well as economic development of different countries into account, the model

suggests that new offices should be located in Nigeria, India, Germany, Italy, Brazil, Australia for

short-term interest, and Nigeria, Russia, Germany, Poland, Brazil, Australia for long-term

development.

The sensitivity analysis shows the strong robustness of our model. Variation of key parameters

causes moderate changes to the computing result. When we test the sensitivity, we indirectly

validate our model’s conformance with reality that the direction of fluctuation of the result matches

situations in real world. Meanwhile, we further discuss the impact of reducing the number of new

office, and provide practicable advice on location determination of new offices.

Key Words: Language Development Model, AHP, Fuzzy Clustering, P-Center Model

# Team

77238

Page 2 of 23

Content

1. Introduction...............................................................................................................................3

2. Assumptions and Justification.................................................................................................. 3

3. Notation.................................................................................................................................... 4

4. Model........................................................................................................................................4

4.1

Language Development Model..........................................................................................4

4.1.1

Judgment Process....................................................................................................4

4.1.2

Stochastic Simulation Process................................................................................ 7

4.2

Location Determination Model........................................................................................11

4.2.1

Solution Oriented by Language Structure............................................................ 11

4.2.2

Solution Oriented by Geographic Condition........................................................ 13

5. Sensitivity Analysis................................................................................................................ 17

5.1

Sensitivity Analysis on Language Development Model..................................................17

5.1.1

Net Birth Rate Impact...........................................................................................17

5.1.2

GDP Growth Rate Impact.....................................................................................17

5.1.3

Migration Rate Impact..........................................................................................18

5.2

Sensitivity Analysis on Location Determination Model..................................................19

6. Further Discussion.................................................................................................................. 20

7. Strengths and Weaknesses...................................................................................................... 20

7.1

Strengths.......................................................................................................................... 20

7.2

Weaknesses...................................................................................................................... 21

7. Conclusion.............................................................................................................................. 21

Reference....................................................................................................................................... 21

Memo to the Service Company..................................................................................................... 22

# Team

77238

Page 3 of 23

Introduction

Language is the most important communication tool for human beings. Today, over 6000

languages are spoken on Earth, which help preserve and inherit human civilization and

achievements. While everyone has his/her own native language which seldom changes all over

his/her life, the number of people speaking a second language keeps increasing not only because

of domestic factors such as school studying or governmental promotion, but also international

factors including growing migration, booming global tourism and close communication online.

Considering both native and second language speakers, great changes take place in language

distribution and the number of speakers.

To investigate how the commonly used languages scatter worldwide, we develop a Language

Development Model to forecast the future development of the 16 most spoken languages counted

in 2017. Based on the original distribution of different languages and the Net Birth Rate of these

countries, we build the model to simulate how language distribution changes over the next 50 years.

After obtaining the result from the Language Development Model, we build a Location

Determination Model using two different solutions. For the former one, we group the countries

based on their language structure. For the latter one, they are separated according to their

geographic condition. After the grouping process, we set two goals to filter an optimal location for

the new office in each group, namely GDP distribution and distance from other countries in the

same group. Besides, we give recommended spoken language in these new offices.

Assumptions and Justification

We make some general assumptions to simplify our model. These assumptions together with

corresponding justification are listed below:



All people take a certain language as their native language, but not every of them speaks

a second language.

Language is an indispensable tool for every person, so all people can speak at least one

language, either commonly or rarely used. However, whether one speaks an additional second

language depends on multiple reasons, for example, the developmental level of his/her country.

 All existing people won’t change their native and second language.

People usually speak the same native language through his/her life. We do not consider change

in native language caused by migration or other factors in the simplified model. The influence

of migration will be discussed in 4.1.1.

 The new generation all take their parents’ native language as their own native language.

However, their choice of the second language varies for several reasons discussed in 4.1.1.

Few families are composed of members speaking different native language. Meanwhile, the

specific data is hard to derive. So, we ignore the influence of the multi-composed families and

assume that children all take their parents’ native language as their own native language.

More detailed assumptions will be listed if needed.

# Team

77238

Page 4 of 23

Speak a second language?

(Communication and economy)

Newly-born

population

Yes

)

Which language?

(communication,

geography, economy,

knowledge, diplomacy)

Chinese

English

French

……

Speak various

second language

Notation

Model

4.1 Language Development Model

To discuss the changes of the top-ten language list, we analyze 16 currently most spoken

languages. We gather the characteristics of language distribution of different countries to produce

a global language distribution. To reduce the amount of calculation, we only consider countries

with a population over 10 million, since they have contributed about 92% of total population on

Earth as shown in Appendix 1. To simplify our model, we suggest the language with the most

speakers represent the native language of a certain country. For each country, we acquire its

population data from 2007 to 2017 on the United Nation Database [1], and obtain its Net Birth

Rate to calculate its newly-born population every year. Meanwhile, the percentage of different

language speakers is acquired [1,2] so that we can know the current language structure of the

country. Through careful analysis of every country we take into account, we seek to obtain the

language distribution all over the world.

4.1.1

Judgment Process

We assumed that the existing people won’t make a change on their native and second language,

and the newly-born population all take their parents’ native language as their own native language.

Therefore, the numerical development of a certain language is completely determined by the newly

increased population. However, not all of them will speak a second language, and which language

they will take as their second language varies for economic, social, political and other reasons. So,

we divide the judgment process into two steps – first to judge whether one will speak a second

language, and then which language he/she will take. The judgment process of our Language

Development Model is shown in Figure 1.

(1-A

)

Speak only one

language

Figure 1 Judgment process of Language Development Model

剩余22页未读，继续阅读

评论收藏

内容反馈

版权申诉

阿拉伯梳子

粉丝: 1597
资源: 5735

2018美赛O奖论文B题-B77238-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文B题-B74316-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文B题-B91566-Forecasting the Language Distribution-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文B题-B79002-How many languages-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文A题-A88255-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文D题-D82504-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文E题-E89499-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文E题-E93840-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文D题-D80386-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文F题-F83744-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文E题-E73119-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文C题-C82150-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文D题-D78826-A Design of Elecomb-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文C题-C78577-Sustainable Energy Assessment-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文D题-D73156-Construct all-electric network-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文E题-E72968-SPEC A Climate-based Fragility Model-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文A题-A76271-Wave Goodbye to Poor Reception-解密.pdf

2018美赛O奖论文F题-F87280-How much is your privacy information-解密.pdf

2023年美赛特等奖论文-B-2315379-解密.pdf

2023年美赛特等奖论文-B-2300136-解密.pdf

相关实用应用程序（Windows可用）

免费可用的ChatGPT网页版.zip

ChatGPT使用总结：150个ChatGPT提示词模板（完整版）

李飞飞自传 我看见的世界 The World I see

chromedriver-win64.zip

全国计算机二级WPSoffice精选350道选择题题库（含答案）.pdf

哈尔滨工业大学-ChatGPT调研报告-2023.3.6-94页.pdf

智联招聘：2024年大学生就业力调研报告.pdf

4个亲测好用的ChatGPT4渠道

数字电子时钟课程设计数字电子时钟课程设计

最新资源

李飞飞自传我看见的世界 The World I see