For office use only
Team Control Number
For office use only
72968
T1
F1
T2
F2
T3
Problem Chosen
F3
T4
E
F4
2018
MCM/ICM
Summary Sheet
SPEC: A Climate-based Fragility Model
Summary
Effects of Climate Change have aroused growing attention worldwide. The potential
damages of Climate Change threaten most regions in the world, especially those fragile
states. A fragile state cannot meet its people’s demands, and is quite vulnerable to those
climate shocks. As a result, how to measure the fragility of countries counts.
Our SPEC Model provides a quantitative analysis of fragility degree for most countries
in the world. It considers multiple aspects, including security, politics, economics and Cli-
mate Change.
We use 20 individual indicators to measure each aspects. Considering the impact of
time, we apply Latest-determine Method and Weighted Average Method to do data weight-
ing for different indicators. Moreover, in Weighted Average Method, we use the
exponential weighting pattern to have realistic time-relating weights to better measure the
indicators in a long period.
We divide effects of Climate Change into two parts: General impacts and Extreme im-
pacts. The general part refers to those indirect effects of Climate Change. We use four
indi-cators to represent the influences of rising sea level, decreasing arable lands,
deteriorating ecological environment and restrained water source.
The extreme part of Climate Change illustrates the potential damage of extreme weath-
ers resulting from Climate Change. We apply Self-regulatory Factor to predict countries’
ability to maintain their current condition facing extreme weathers. We use three indicators
to further measure the self-regulatory factor. Moreover, self-regulatory factor also relates
to the Tipping Point of a country, and we put forward the Tipping Model.
We apply Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine the weights of indicators. We
refer to different databases such as Worldbank. We simulate our model to 178 countries in
the world, and we work out the self-regulatory factor and SPEC index of each country.
We apply the SPEC model to Yemen, one of the most fragile country and India, a
country with ordinary fragility. We predict the total cost of state driven intervention of India.
In order to make our model more applicable, we use Re-weighting Method to modify
our model. In this way, we find SPEC works well in "smaller" or "larger" states.
Finally, we do sensitivity analysis to the SPEC Model and discuss strengths and weak-
nesses.
Keywords
: SPEC Model; Self-regulatory Factor; Weighed Average Method; data mining;
climate impacts; Analytic Hierarchy Process;
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