2019美赛O奖论文-MCM2019C-1922154.pdf

2019

MCM/ICM

Summary Sheet

The Current Status, Future and Strategy of Opioid

Summary

The United States is experiencing a crisis regarding the abuse of opioids which poses

a great threat to the development prospects of the United States. Based on the idea of

cellular automata, we not only describe the spread and characteristics of reported

we define the opioid incidents concentration index (CI) to characterize the degree of

aggregation of cases by reference to the HHI index. Finally, we obtain the distribution of

synthetic opioids and heroin incidents in five states. Cases are still concentrated in

transportation hubs and there is a tendency to spread. Heroin spread to the southwest in

Kentucky with Lexington as the center and has a tendency to spread throughout

Pennsylvania and Virginia. Based on historical data and prediction, we determine the drug

identification threshold levels for each state. In 2026, Ohio will reach its threshold of

120,000, making it difficult for the government to control the amount of opioid use and

the speed of spread.

In order to determine whether certain socio-economic factors have a significant

factors selected above to the “environment” similarity considerations, we have obtained

a modified model that considers socio-economic factors.

Based on the above analysis, we develop a strategy contains two actions for dealing

with opioid crisis. The first one is giving couples a discount on tax and mortgage rates to

encourage people to marry at legal age. The other is opening a low-cost English language

training institution to improve the English proficiency of non-native English speakers.

Key words: Opioid; Cellular automata; Concentration index; Spread; Characteristics

MEMO

Dear chief administrator, we are honored to inform you our achievement after

performing data analysis and modeling.

moreover, the distribution in Pennsylvania is the most concentrated. Heroin once had a

tendency to spread. However, perhaps for some reason, this trend has been arrested.

Nowadays Heroin is spreading again in some states, such as Virginia.

Then, we forecast the synthetic opioid and heroin usage in each county from 2017 to

2026. According to the prediction, synthetic opioids will spread throughout Kentucky in

the future. And the synthetic opioids usage of counties around Washington is growing

from the forecasting.

Based on our observation on provided data and Calculated data, we think about the

U.S. government is concern about two points:

 The opioid usage should be restricted to a certain level.

variables such as marital status, educational attainment, ancestry and the language spoken

will impact on the use of the opioid in each county.

Based on the above analysis, we propose a strategy that includes two actions.

at legal age.

proficiency of non-native English speakers.

Our strategy can effectively reduce opioid use.

 By taking the action 1, the opioid cases will reduce from 257496 to 231073

 By taking the action 2, the opioid cases will reduce from 257496 to 225873.

1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Background ......................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Planned Approach ............................................................................................... 1

2 Terminology, Symbols and Assumptions ...................................................................... 2

2.1 Terms .................................................................................................................. 2

2.2 Symbols .............................................................................................................. 2

2.3 General Assumptions .......................................................................................... 3

3.2 Spread of Opioid Incidents base on CA Model .................................................. 4

3.2.1 Introduction to the idea of method .......................................................... 4

3.2.2 Attributes of a Cell ................................................................................... 5

3.2.3 Self-defined Rules ................................................................................... 5

3.2.4 Concentration index (CI) ......................................................................... 7

3.3 Results & analysis .............................................................................................. 7

3.3.1 Spread and Characteristics....................................................................... 7

3.3.2 Concern and Occur .................................................................................. 9

3.4 Sensitivity analysis of model ............................................................................ 10

4 Model Modification Considering Socio-economic Factors.......................................... 11

4.1 Preprocess Data ................................................................................................. 11

4.2.3 Twofold filter ......................................................................................... 13

4.3 Model Modification .......................................................................................... 14

4.4 Results & analysis ............................................................................................ 14

4.5 Model Evaluation ............................................................................................. 16

4.6 Strategy ............................................................................................................. 17

4.6.1 Principles of strategy ............................................................................. 17

4.6.2 Action .................................................................................................... 17

5 Strength and Weakness ................................................................................................ 18

5.1 Strength ............................................................................................................. 18

At present, the phenomenon of addiction and abuse of opioids in the United States is

serious. The abuse of opioids not only imposes a heavy economic burden on the US

government, but also affects the quantity and quality of the US workforce and the

prospects for the US economy.

The DEA/National Forensic Laboratory Information System (NFLIS) of the Drug

states.

economic data from the US Census.

A large amount of literature tracks the abuse of opioids in the United States: for

example, Cicero, Inciardi, and Muñoz [1] specifically described the trend of abuse of

opioids in the United States from 2002 to 2004 based on the Researched Abuse, Diversion

and Addiction-Related Surveillance (RADARS®) system; Volkow, Jones, Einstein, and

Wargo [2] analyzed the factors that triggered the opioid crisis and its further evolution, as

well as interventions to manage and prevent opioid use disorders.

However, most of the literature does not scientifically summarize its propagation

Based on the above analysis, we propose the framework model shown in Figure 1,

which can be summarized as the following steps:

 Characteristics and Spread

Draw heat maps and other visualizations using NFLIS data and geographic data

(latitude and longitude), and analyze the spread and characteristics of the reported

synthetic opioid and heroin incidents in and between the five states and their counties

over time.

 Cellular Automata Model

of historical data to achieve a more accurate simulation.

 Analyze Socio-economic Factors

We plan to use statistical one-way ANOVA and correlation analysis to find

socioeconomic factors that have a significant impact on the model and to correct the

model.

 Identify a Possible Strategies

We will consider the results of the cellular automata model and the influential socio-

economic factors of the analysis, and then develop a possible strategy for countering the

opioid crisis. The model will also be used to verify the effectiveness of the strategy.

2 Terminology, Symbols and Assumptions

2.1 Terms

For example, it can be used to measure the market concentration. It is calculated

by squaring the market shares of all firms in a market and then summing the

squares.

2.2 Symbols