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巴克莱-美股-农业行业-美国农业:6月牛肉配额-617-23页.pdf
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Equity Research
17 June 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts
based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18.
Restricted
- Internal
Americas Agribusiness
BBQ – Ben’s Beef Quotes: June 2019
In our June edition of “BBQ – Ben’s Beef Quotes”, we continue to follow the industry
news and data. Supply and demand imbalances and trade war pressures remain
drivers of volatility and uncertainty, we remain cautious ahead. As in the past we
highlight important news, major trends in agri-product pricing, demand and trade
data. We include eggs, poultry, pork, some lamb and veal – it’s not all beef!
News
A growing number of players in the plant-based meat market. Perdue, Beyond Meat,
Tyson Foods, Maple Leaf Foods, and Nestle, among others, enter the alternative meats
market. Growth for the plant-based segment is expected to be led by the goal to reduce
meat consumption as a response to related health concerns, environmental risks, and
the impact on animal welfare in industrial farming.
The shift in global meat trade continues to unfold; China upped its inspection
procedures on Canadian meat and meat products, on top of previous restrictions. Small
changes in the industry like these can increase uncertainty and volatility in the market.
Prices & Feed
Production was strong for red meat given higher slaughter rates, as was for
broiler; yet we see more flattish to negative growth rates for turkey.
Prices continued to perform overall mixed; we generally saw positive y/y growth.
Nonetheless, we remain cautious on uncertainty regarding supply/demand
balancing out also as inventory levels rise and volatility for some meats continues.
Trade & USDA
Opportunities to fulfill the supply/demand imbalance obstructed by trade tariffs.
Retaliatory tariffs continue to pressure exports; some U.S. meat producers are
missing opportunities to directly export to China following the effects of ASF.
Meat trade trends and market dynamics continue to shift. Uncertainty grows as
changes in meat trade develop under trade wars and the global impact of ASF; new
trade partners and different types of proteins (buffalo meat) are now in discussions.
Meat availability expected to continue growing. USDA estimates for 2019 and
2020 red meat and poultry per capita availability at 220.8mn and 220.9mn lbs.,
respectively (vs. 219.5mn lbs. in 2018).
Our Stocks
Staying OW on TSN (Top Pick), PPC & BRFS; EW on HRL, JBS & SAFM and UW on MRFG.
INDUSTRY UPDATE
Americas Agribusiness
NEUTRAL
Unchanged
Americas Agribusiness
Benjamin M. Theurer
+52 55 5241 3322
benjamin.theurer@barclays.com
BBMX, Mexico
Antonio Hernandez
+ 52 55 5241 3323
antonio.hernandez@barclays.com
BBMX, Mexico
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88102506/bg2.jpg)
Barclays | Americas Agribusiness
17 June 2019 2
CONTENTS
AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS .............................................................................. 3
News................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Commodity trends ......................................................................................................................................... 4
Price performance .......................................................................................................................................... 5
EGGS AND POULTRY ........................................................................................ 6
Production & Capacity .................................................................................................................................. 6
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................ 7
Feed-Price Ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 10
Trade ............................................................................................................................................................... 11
RED MEAT ......................................................................................................... 12
Production & Capacity ............................................................................................................................... 12
Pricing ............................................................................................................................................................. 14
Feed-Price Ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 16
Trade ............................................................................................................................................................... 17
All prices are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.
PROTEIN CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS
Poultry
Poultry production growth remains positive for broilers and weaker for turkey, while
most of the turkey production activity continues to post flattish y/y growth or declines. Egg
production in April grew +4.6% y/y and egg-type chicks’ hatchings expanded 2.9% y/y.
Weekly broiler eggs-set at the beginning of June were up 0.9% y/y and chick placements
rose 1.3% y/y (Figures 6-9). As for turkey, eggs in incubators as of June, we saw declines of
2.3% y/y while for May, hatchings were up 0.3% y/y and placements also decreased, down
1.3% y/y. Price growth was mostly flattish across the poultry products on a y/y basis, while
the spread for broiler wholesale-retail price moved up 4.0% y/y in May (Figures 14-17).
Red Meat
Commercial production of red meat in April accelerated, in line with slaughter, for both
beef and pork. Beef production rose 6.9% y/y in April, supported by a 7.3% y/y expansion
in the slaughter rate, while pork production also grew, up 5.9% y/y. As a result, inventory
levels for cattle on feed reached a growth of 2.2% y/y as of May. Furthermore, reported
cattle placements for April surged, up 8.7% y/y (Figures 36-39). In terms of pricing, though,
growth for beef and pork products was mixed. Beef wholesale posted mainly flattish to mid-
single digit growth while pork prices maintained higher growth rates as demand remained
strong (Figures 40-45); retail prices were mostly positive, with upward growth trends for
beef and overall mixed for pork. Price spreads for both meat types remain relatively stable
compared to historical levels.
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88102506/bg3.jpg)
Barclays | Americas Agribusiness
17 June 2019 3
AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS
News
A growing number of players in the plant-based meat market; chicken producer Perdue
set to enter. Chicken producer Perdue (private; not covered) plans on selling frozen chicken
nuggets mixed with cauliflower, chickpeas, and plant protein as a mean to respond to a
growing demand of plant-based and meat-combined products. The blended products are
believed to be already in pipeline, as the company expects this segment to reach US$100mn
in five years, ~5% of the total business. As a way to introduce more vegetables into their
diet, consumers are attracted to the option of vegetable-enhanced products. Recent news of
the IPO of plant-based foods company Beyond Meat (not covered) and Tyson’s launch of its
own blended products line are examples of growth in this protein market. Tyson Foods’
mixed-protein products include sausages and meatballs which combine chicken with plants
such as chickpeas, black beans, and quinoa. Other companies entering the market are:
Canadian packaged meat producer Maple Leaf Foods (not covered) which will sell its
LightLife brand of vegan products in the U.S. and Nestle (covered by European Consumer
Staples analyst, Warren Ackerman), which is aiming to sell pea-based veggie patties under
its Sweet Earth brand. The expected growth for the plant-based segment is led by the goal
to reduce meat consumption over concerns relating health risks, environmental hazards,
and animal welfare in industrial farming.
(Source: Reuters, “Chicken producer Perdue enters crowded plant-based meat market” June
14, 2019)
China’s move to increase inspections of imported Canadian meats adds to uncertainty
across the industry. The shift in global meat trade continues to unfold. Most recently, China
went beyond its already in-place restrictions on Canada (it had already banned imports of
canola seed and temporarily suspended two Canadian pork plants) and upped its inspection
procedures on Canadian meat and meat products, stating that it will require inspections of
100% of the content of the selected containers in some cases. Per the report, Chinese
officials cited non-compliance in recent pork shipments. The Canadian Pork Council said the
inspection issue relates to documents and not food safety, according to the article. Given
the developing changes driven by the impacts of the ASF and trade wars, all eyes are on
China. As the industry uncertainty and fears rise, so does the volatility in the market.
(Source: Reuters, “Exclusive: Canada says China plans more meat import inspections,
industry fears disaster” June 4, 2019)
Perdue, Beyond Meat, Tyson,
Maple Leaf and Nestle, among
others enter the alternative
meats market. The expected
growth for the plant-based
segment is led by the goal to
reduce meat consumption.
The shift in global meat trade
continues to unfold; China
upped its inspection
procedures on Canadian meat
and meat products. Small
changes in the industry can
increase uncertainty, fear, and
volatility in the market.
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/88102506/bg4.jpg)
Barclays | Americas Agribusiness
17 June 2019 4
Commodity trends
During May, daily corn and soybean price growth averaged at -4.7% and -18.5%,
respectively. Performance at the last day of the month was down -8.4% for corn and down
13.8% y/y for soybean, while for the month (start to finish) the y/y change was 20.9% for
corn and 4.3% y/y for soybean. By mid-June corn was at ~US$453 while soybean was at
~US$897 cents per bushel (Figures 1 - 4) and price performance was mixed YTD, at +20.8%
and 1.6%, respectively.
FIGURE 1
CBOT corn prices ended May up 8.4% y/y
FIGURE 2
Actual corn prices through May.’19 and Forward Curve
Source: Refinitiv, Barclays Research.
Source: Refinitiv, Barclays Research
FIGURE 3
Soybean prices ended May down 13.8% y/y
FIGURE 4
Actual soybean prices through May.’19 and Forward Curve
Source: Refinitiv, Barclays Research.
Source: Refinitiv, Barclays Research
-20%
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US$c/bsh % YoY Growth, right
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Actual Future
-25%
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US$c/bsh % YoY Growth, right
600
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Actual Future
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