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Equity Research

18 March 2019

CORE

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors

should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts

based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.

PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18.

Restricted

- Internal

Americas Agribusiness

BBQ – Ben’s Beef Quotes: March 2019

Due to the US government shutdown and delayed data availability we decided to skip

our February edition of BBQ. Now as data feeds have been updated, we are

presenting our March edition of “BBQ – Ben’s Beef Quotes”. As in the past we

highlight important news, major trends in agri-product pricing, demand and trade

data. We include eggs, poultry, pork, some lamb and veal – it’s not all beef!

News

U.S. lawmakers debate over ‘meat’ substitutes in fear of the threat it poses to the

US$110bn U.S. meat market. Among many bills which have been presented regarding

plant-based products, some without success, the latest bill proposes making it illegal to

label meat alternatives/substitutes as ‘meat’.

Following 25 recalls of millions of pounds of meat and processed foods, the USDA

sets new guidelines for food companies. An increase in recalls of meat and poultry

products drove the U.S. government to increase its regulatory requirements for the

internal investigation processes as well as the way the companies receive and deal with

client complaints around the topic.

Prices & Feed

 Our outlook continues to be cautious considering ongoing uncertainty in some

markets. Overall, while some metrics have shown improvements or maintain

healthy growth, others remain under pressure given volatility and uncertainty.

 Chicken production still at positive growth rates, while turkey and red meat

production had a weaker performance. Flattish slaughter rates and lower numbers

of turkey eggs in incubators drove red meat and turkey productions contractions.

Trade & USDA

 U.S. – E.U. trade negotiations focus on agricultural issues. Key topics include UK

markets’ bans of products including GMOs, hormone-boosted beef, and chlorine-

cleaned chickens, among others. We expect to see an extensive agenda ahead.

 USDA takes action on food safety concern. Chicken and beef standards must

improve in order to help the domestic market as well as to expand to other markets.

 Meat availability expected to further expand. USDA estimates for 2019 poultry and

red meat per capita availability at 220.5mn lbs. (vs. 218.8mn lbs. in 2018).

Our Stocks

Staying OW on TSN (Top Pick), PPC, JBS & BRFS; EW on HRL & SAFM and UW on MRFG.

INDUSTRY UPDATE

Americas Agribusiness

NEUTRAL

Unchanged

Americas Agribusiness

Benjamin M. Theurer

+52 55 5241 3322

benjamin.theurer@barclays.com

BBMX, Mexico

Antonio Hernandez

+ 52 55 5241 3323

antonio.hernandez@barclays.com

BBMX, Mexico

Barclays | Americas Agribusiness 
18 March 2019  2 
CONTENTS 
AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS .............................................................................. 3 
News................................................................................................................................................................... 3 
Commodity trends ......................................................................................................................................... 4 
Price performance .......................................................................................................................................... 5 
EGGS AND POULTRY ........................................................................................ 6 
Production & Capacity .................................................................................................................................. 6 
Pricing ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 
Feed-Price Ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 10 
Trade ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 
RED MEAT ......................................................................................................... 12 
Production & Capacity ............................................................................................................................... 12 
Pricing ............................................................................................................................................................. 14 
Feed-Price Ratios ......................................................................................................................................... 16 
Trade ............................................................................................................................................................... 17 
 
All prices are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted.  
   
PROTEIN CATEGORY HIGHLIGHTS 
Poultry 
Chicken  production  generally  maintained  positive  growth  rates,  while  data  for  turkey 
was  mixed.  Egg  production  in  January  grew  +4.7%  y/y  while  egg-type  chicks  hatchings 
expanded  3.8%  y/y.  Weekly  eggs-set  at  the  start  of  March  were  up  2.5%  y/y  and  chick 
placements grew 1.4% y/y (Figures 6-9). As for turkey, eggs in incubators for the month of 
March  contracted  2.3%  y/y  and  despite  a  lower number  of  placements  during  February, 
hatchings managed to  post a  positive 1.0%  y/y  growth. In terms of pricing, performance 
remained mixed for poultry products, yet mostly flattish on a y/y basis (Figures 14-17). The 
feed-price ratios  for  December  (broilers, turkey  and  eggs)  performed  mixed  compared  to 
previous months yet were all fairly stable. In terms of trade during December, pressure on 
growth of exports remains evident as both value and volumes dropped on a y/y basis. 
Red Meat 
Commercial production of red meat decreased in December, as slaughter rates for both 
beef and pork were flat. Beef production fell 1.5% y/y in December, while pork production 
dropped  0.1%  y/y  on  the  back  of  flatting  slaughter  growth.  During  February,  inventory 
levels  for  cattle  on  feed  grew  only  0.4%  y/y,  while  figures  reported  for  January  cattle 
placements were  down  5.3%  y/y  (Figures 36-38).  Wholesale  prices  for beef were flattish 
during February while for pork price dropped significantly, -19.1% y/y (Figures 40-45) and 
retail  prices  were  overall  flattish  for pork  and mixed  for  beef.  Feed  ratios  came  down  for 
both  steers  and  heifers as  well  as  for  hogs  on  a  q/q  and  y/y  basis.  As  for  trade,  growth 
remained pressured in December for exports with a minor increase in imports. 

Barclays | Americas Agribusiness

18 March 2019 3

AMERICAS AGRIBUSINESS

News

U.S. lawmakers debate over meat substitutes in fear of the threat it poses to the

US$110bn U.S. meat market. Among many bills which have been presented around the

topic, some without success, the latest bill proposes making it illegal to label meat

alternatives/substitutes as ‘meat’. This movement has about half-a-million meat-industry

workers and more than 20 meat-producing states fearful of the impact this could cause,

especially considering the ~19% sales drop in cow milk in the past few years since non-dairy

milks such as almond, soy and coconut milks became a popular alternative beverage,

attributed to these being labeled as milk. As investigation progresses regarding plant-based

and lab-grown meat alternatives as a response to the dire issues surrounding global

warming, health issues, animal cruelty, among others, the battle between meat lovers and

animal lovers (or simply more conscientious individuals) grows. As a key driver of climate

change, taking up about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions, animal farming has many

people, including scientists, vegans and environmentalists working towards greener

alternatives. Though lab-grown meat is not yet being sold, it is well into its research and

development stage to shortly follow the plant-based foods already available in the market

and forecast to double to US$2.5bn by 2023 according to Euromonitor International. While

the jury is still out on whether the labeling meat-substitute products as meat should be

prohibited or not, we believe it is likely that the clean ‘meat’ market will continue to grow as

does the threat from our, presumably unsustainable, traditional animal meat option.

(Source: Reuters, “U.S. lawmakers tuck into juicy debate over meat substitutes” March 14,

2019)

Following 25 recalls of millions of pounds of meat and processed foods, the USDA sets

new guidelines for food companies. An increase in recalls of meat and poultry products

drove the U.S. government to increase its regulatory requirements for the internal

investigation processes as well as the way the companies receive and deal with client

complaints. Companies including Tyson Foods Inc., Smithfield Foods Inc., Perdue Foods,

and Pilgrim’s Pride Corp., among others, have had to face recalls due to contaminated

products possibly containing metal, plastic, wood or other foreign materials, which many

people blame on the increase in automation in the food processing production lines. As

food companies continue to work towards improving processes and quality, the new

guideline from the U.S. government states companies must alert the USDA within 24 hours

of receiving a customer complaint if it’s possible that contaminated products are in the

marketplace.

(Source: Reuters, “Exclusive: U.S. to issue meat company guidelines as recalls mount -

official” March 4, 2019)

Half-a-million meat-industry

workers and more than 20

meat-producing states

threatened by meat alternative

products being labeled ‘meat’.

Concern on food-safety

following many recalls of meat

and poultry products has the

USDA advising new guidelines

to food processing companies.

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