巴克莱-美股-房地产行业-美国REITsQ4盈利预览-122-68页.pdf
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Equity Research
22 January 2019
CORE
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with
companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 58.
U.S. REITs
UPDATE: REITs Earnings Preview: 4Q18
Our REIT coverage universe begins reporting 4Q18 results today with PLD. We expect
reported FFO/ps to increase +8.8% Y/Y in 4Q18 for our coverage universe bringing full
year reported FFO to +8.8%. We forecast 4Q18 operating FFO/ps, which excludes non-
recurring items, to be up +4.4%. We forecast +4.2% growth on a full year operating
basis and projected FY2018 CAD/ps growth of +6.1%. Looking to 2019, we project
CAD to be up +4.5%; our five year expectation is +5.2%.
Commercial real estate fundamentals remain sound, benefitting from the strong
macro-economic backdrop. Yet, investor sentiment is still cautious on late cycle
concerns and amid recent broader market volatility, driven in turn by the pace of
Federal Reserve rate hikes and uncertainty around global trade. YTD, the RMZ (+6.2%)
has outperformed the S&P 500 (+5.2%) as of 1/17/19.
Muted Guidance Anticipated. While 4Q18 will likely support our constructive view on
real estate fundamentals, our sector rating remains Neutral. Supply has remained
relatively disciplined and demand is solid across most property types. That said, looking
forward to 2019 guidance – we expect managements to be relatively conservative,
using less aggressive assumptions and wider ranges. Those issues combined with late
cycle concerns and rising interest rates may well dampen short term stock
performance. Nevertheless, we continue to see upside in names that present a
mismatch between valuation/growth prospects. Going into earnings we like: DLR (Top
Pick), PLD and ESS (all rated OW).
Apartments: Multifamily outperformed the RMZ in 4Q18 (-2.3% vs. -7.8%), a
reflection of the sector’s improving fundamentals and relative safe haven status. Key
earnings call topics include 2019 guidance and capital spending plans.
Office: SSNOI growth should remain steady or accelerate further for most names in
our coverage. That said, we expect earnings growth may moderate somewhat;
following 3Q18 median FFO/share growth of +6.1%, we expect 4Q18 median
earnings growth to slow to just +1.8%.
Industrial: We continue to like industrial REITs into 2019 and think organic growth
guidance will remain robust. That said, we think risk is skewed to the downside
through earnings as it remains to be seen whether uncertainty associated with
global trade disputes has caused a discernible slowdown in leasing or outlooks.
Retail: Retail vastly underperformed in 2018. In spite of slower SSNOI/FFO growth
expected in 2019, malls (+5.3%) and strips: (+8.8%) have outperformed (RMZ:
+6.2%) YTD suggesting sentiment shift towards value. Key call topics include:
thoughts around as Sears as a going concern (less co-tenancy impact) and
Charlotte Russe, ShopKo and Gymboree closures.
Technology: Data center fundamentals remain on solid footing and we think this
subsector will once again post above average growth in 2019.
EARNINGS PREVIEW
U.S. REITs
NEUTRAL
Unchanged
For a full list of our ratings, price target and
earnings changes in this report, please see
table on page 2.
U.S. REITs
Ross L. Smotrich
+1 212 526 2306
ross.smotrich@barclays.com
BCI, US
Linda Tsai
+1 212 526 9937
linda.tsai@barclays.com
BCI, US
Dan Occhionero, CFA
+1 212 526 7164
Dan.Occhionero@barclays.com
BCI, US
Trevor Young, CFA
+1 212 526 3098
trevor.young@barclays.com
BCI, US
Brendan Lynch, CFA
+1 212 526 9428
brendan.lynch@barclays.com
BCI, US
Upal Rana
+1 212 526 4887
upal.x.rana@barclays.com
BCI, US
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