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煤炭科学研究总院硕士学位论文
I
摘 要
随着我国国民经济的快速发展,环境污染事故时有发生,特别是涉及饮用水安全
的水环境突发事故数量的增多,已经严重影响和损害了群众身体健康,也不利于经济
社会持续发展。为了预防企业突发性水污染事故的发生以及对已发生的污染事故迅速
预测,进行及时、快速、准确和有效的处置,建立突发性水污染事故预测系统是十分
必要的。
论文以陕西省神木县窟野河流域(草垛山-孟家沟段)为研究对象,建立了基于
Matlab/Simulink-M 文件混合编程方法的一维水质模型,预测了该河段煤矿突发性水
污染事故排放对窟野河的影响。论文得到以下成果:
(1)提出基于 Matlab/Simulink-M 文件混合编程方法的水质预测模型,并以实际
水质数据对其有效性进行验证,经过验证模型的预测误差均在可接受范围内。
(2)在对窟野河流域(草垛山-孟家沟段)煤矿企业的污染源分布的调查及对其
突发性污染事故发生的可能性分析的基础上,构建了四种矿井突发事故排放情景,并
用以上建立的模型预测了各情景下孟家沟断面的水质变化,结果表明,四种排放情景
均对窟野河水质造成了一定的影响,其中以红柳林煤矿发生事故排放时的影响最大。
(3)提出预防对策。
关键词:窟野河;Matlab/Simulink-M;突发性水污染事故;模拟预测
煤炭科学研究总院硕士学位论文
II
Abstract
With the rapid development of our national economy, the environmental pollution
accidents have occurred sometimes, especially the increasing number of water
environmental emergencies involving the safety of drinking water. It has not only seriously
affected and damaged the health of the masses, but also be detrimental to the sustained
economic and social development. In order to prevent the occurrence of sudden water
pollution incidents and predict the pollution accidents having occurred rapidly, the
establishment of sudden water pollution accident prediction system is very necessary.
The research object of this paper is the Kuye River in Shaanxi Shenmu (Caoduoshan
to Mengjiagou section). Establish one dimensional water quality model basing on
Matlab/Simulink-M file mixed programming method and predict the effect of the emission
of coal mine sudden water pollution accidents to the Kuye River. The results of the paper
are as follows:
First of all, putting forward water quality prediction model based on
Matlab/Simulink-M file mixed programming method and use the actual water quality data
to prove the validity of model. The prediction errors of the model are within the acceptable
range.
Secondly, on the basis of the investigation of coal mining enterprises of the
distribution of pollution sources and the analysis of the possibility of sudden pollution
accident on the Kuye River (Caoduoshan to Mengjiagou section), build four kinds of
discharge situation of mine accidents, using the above model to predict the water quality
changes of Mengjiagou section,the results show that the four kinds of discharge situation
all have a certain influence on water quality,among them the effect of Hong liulin coal
mine accident of emissions is the greatest.
Finally, put forward the preventive measures.
Keywords: Kuye River;Matlab/Simulink-M;Water pollution accident;Simulation
煤炭科学研究总院硕士学位论文
III
目 录
1
绪论 ................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 研究背景及意义.......................................................................................................... 1
1.2 国内外研究现状.......................................................................................................... 3
1.3 河流突发性水污染事故水质预测研究现状.............................................................. 7
1.3.1 矿井突发性水污染事故研究现状....................................................................... 7
1.3.2 国内外水质预测方法研究现状........................................................................... 8
1.3.3 基于 Matlab 水质模拟预测研究现状 ............................................................... 10
1.4 本文研究内容............................................................................................................ 11
1.5 本文的结构安排........................................................................................................ 13
2
基于 Matlab 的河流突发性水污染事故建模 ................................................................ 15
2.1 河流水质模型概述.................................................................................................... 15
2.2 河流水质模型的基本形式........................................................................................ 15
2.2.1 三维河流水质模型............................................................................................. 16
2.2.2 二维河流水质模型............................................................................................. 17
2.2.3 一维河流水质模型............................................................................................. 18
2.3 河流水质数学模型建模步骤.................................................................................... 18
2.4 Matlab 计算机平台概述 ........................................................................................... 19
2.4.1 Matlab/Simulink 仿真原理 ............................................................................... 19
2.4.2 Matlab/Simulink 建模步骤 ................................................................................ 20
2.4.3 Matlab 语言编写程序 ........................................................................................ 21
2.4.4 M 文件的创建与调试 ........................................................................................ 22
3
窟野河概况及预测断面确定 ......................................................................................... 24
3.1 窟野河概况................................................................................................................ 24
3.1.1 窟野河自然环境概况......................................................................................... 24
3.1.2 窟野河水文特征................................................................................................. 24
3.2 窟野河预测断面确定................................................................................................ 25
煤炭科学研究总院硕士学位论文
IV
3.2.1 窟野河监测断面分布......................................................................................... 25
3.2.2 窟野河断面水质状况......................................................................................... 27
3.2.3 窟野河预测断面确定......................................................................................... 28
3.3 窟野河草垛山-孟家沟河段主要污染源 .................................................................. 29
3.4 草垛山-孟家沟河段煤矿企业突发水污染事故的可能性分析 .............................. 29
3.4.1 红柳林煤矿井田地质与水文地质概况............................................................. 29
3.4.2 板墩焉煤矿井田地质与水文地质概况............................................................. 30
3.4.3 敖包沟煤矿井田地质与水文地质概况............................................................. 32
3.4.4 矿井突发性排水事故可能性分析..................................................................... 34
4
窟野河(草垛山-孟家沟段)水质预测 ........................................................................ 37
4.1 窟野河(草垛山-孟家沟段)水质模型 .................................................................. 37
4.1.1 单一河段的水质仿真模型................................................................................. 37
4.1.2 多河段河流的水质仿真模型............................................................................. 38
4.2 Matlab/Simulink 水质预测模型 ................................................................................ 41
4.2.1 Matlab/Simulink 水质预测模型 ........................................................................ 41
4.2.2 Matlab / M 文件程序代码编写.......................................................................... 43
4.2.3 Matlab / M 文件程序输出.................................................................................. 46
4.2.4 Matlab 水质预测模型验证 ................................................................................ 48
4.3 煤矿突发性水污染事故水质预测............................................................................ 50
4.3.1 水污染仿真模型................................................................................................. 50
4.3.2 水污染事故预测................................................................................................. 50
4.3.3 预测结果分析..................................................................................................... 55
5
突发性水污染事故风险防范措施 .................................................................................. 59
5.1 煤矿企业风险防范措施............................................................................................ 59
5.2 政府部门风险防范措施............................................................................................ 59
5.3 风险防范及应急预案制定........................................................................................ 59
6
结论与存在的问题 .......................................................................................................... 61
煤炭科学研究总院硕士学位论文
V
6.1 结论 ........................................................................................................................... 61
6.2 存在的问题 ............................................................................................................... 61
参考文献 ............................................................................................................................. 63
致 谢 ................................................................................................................................. 67
附 录 ................................................................................................................................. 68
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