【20220208】中国电动汽车行业报告-巴克莱_90页

汽车行业

191 浏览量 2024-07-28 17:23:51 上传评论收藏 1.65MB PDF 举报

资源推荐

资源详情

资源评论

Equity Research

8 February 2022

China Technology

China Electric Vehicles: Not Just

Brawn, But Brain Too - Initiate LI, NIO

and XPEV at OW

We are initiating coverage of leading Chinese EV makers with

Overweight ratings. EVs and Smart Cars are among China’s top

national priorities and the TAM is not just China but the global

auto market.

We believe that the rapid adoption of EVs around the world and booming EV sales have

presented China’s EV makers a rare opportunity to not only take a sizable market share of the

domestic auto market – the largest in the world with about 25-30% global share by units sold

per annum – but also build a dominant position on the world stage. It is a national priority for

China to develop cutting-edge EV and autonomous driving technologies, and to export

competitive EVs around the world, as Chinese smartphone manufacturers have done in recent

years. Several leading EV makers have already started selling their products in Europe.

Not only is China the world’s largest auto market, its auto industry accounts for over one-

third of the global automotive profit pool. The enormous domestic profits available

incentivize China’s EV makers to invest heavily both in technologies and in manufacturing

capacity in order to stay ahead of the pack. In addition, the highly developed EV component

supply chain in China enables EV start-ups to scale quickly.

Compared to many countries in the world, including the US, China has one of the most

supportive and well-thought-out government policy agendas for the EV industry. Measures

such as qualified subsidies for EV purchases (low-quality EVs excluded), sales taxes waivers, free

and readily available “green” license plates, as well as a national carbon credit system for all

auto makers, EV or ICE, have been instrumental in helping achieve EV penetration of around

14% in the country today.

It is nearly impossible at this point to accurately envision what the future smart car may look

like, or who the eventual winners and losers will be. Innovations and capabilities in

autonomous driving and automobile robotics will ultimately decide the winners. With this

as a backdrop, we initiate coverage with an Overweight rating on three leading Chinese EV

makers: purpose-built EV producer Li Auto (LI), luxury early mover and battery innovator NIO

(NIO), and mass-market oriented and value-focused XPeng Motors (XPEV), and aim to closely

monitor their progress in developing cutting-edge smart car technologies and expanding their

product portfolios to address mass-market needs.

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its aﬀiliates does and seeks to do business with companies

covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a

conflict of interest that could aﬀect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this

report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 81 .

CORE

Initiating Coverage

#energyrevolution

China Technology

Jiong Shao, CFA

+1 212 526 5562

jiong.shao@barclays.com

BCI, US

Jesse Chao

+1 212 526 7518

jesse.chao@barclays.com

BCI, US

Lian Xiu (Roger) Duan

+1 212 526 4633

lianxiu.duan@barclays.com

BCI, US

China Technology

POSITIVE

nchanged

Completed: 07-Feb-22, 18:48 GMT Released: 08-Feb-22, 05:10 GMT Restricted - External

Barclays | China Technology

8 February 2022 2

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Electric Vehicle Landscape . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

EV Penetration rising . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

China’s EV market is massive but crowded . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

overnment policy historically an EV adoption driver . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Critical parts of the value chain in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Consumer adoption considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32

New energy tech and alternative EV makers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Tesla in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

A complicated relationship . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39

Li Auto (LI) - Purpose-built for families to start . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Investment Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Company Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Financials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

Valuation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51

NIO Inc. (NIO) - Made in China luxury . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Investment Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Company Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

Financials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

Valuation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

XPeng Motors (XPEV) - Aﬀordable and advanced . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Investment Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Company Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Financials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76

Valuation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77

CONTENTS

8 February 2022 5

Barclays | China Technology

Executive Summary

We are initiating coverage of three leading Chinese EV players, LI, NIO, and XPEV with OW

ratings and price targets of $38, $34, and $45, respectively.

As China has been making giant strides in advancing its technologies across multiple sectors,

from communication equipment and internet to high-end manufacturing and renewable

energy, the Chinese government has been proactively planning for the next set of national

priorities: technologies the country should be focused on in the next few decades. New Energy

Vehicles – and Electric Vehicles in particular – are likely top of the list, for several reasons.

Firstly, China has failed, for the most part, to establish a competitive position in the global ICE

market. Despite China being the largest auto market in the world in recent years, with about 25

mm units sold in 2021 out of worldwide sales of about 80 mm, domestic players have relatively

low market share even in China, and their cars are rarely seen outside the country. This is in

stark contrast to many car-producing countries. A casual observer is likely to see mostly

European cars in Europe and Japanese cars in Japan.

Delving into the background of the missed ICE opportunity, we note that at the time when

demand for ICE cars took oﬀ in China roughly 20 years ago, the Chinese government had little

experience dealing with foreign auto makers, or trying to transfer core technologies into China

or motivate domestic players to come up with competitive technologies and products.

Furthermore, domestic auto players were not ready to launch anything remotely close to what

foreign players were oﬀering. Fast forward to today, and foreign-branded cars (European,

Japanese, Korean and American) make up the majority of the cars sold in China, particularly in

higher-tier cities.

Today’s China is obviously not what it was 20 years ago, and nor are today’s Chinese companies,

supported by an exceptionally exuberant capital investment environment (venture capital,

private equity, sovereign wealth, etc.) Chinese authorities and Chinese companies appear

determined not to let the EV opportunity slip through their fingers. We also believe Chinese EV

makers have the global auto market squarely in their sights over the long term, sensing a rare

opportunity to export their products and go global, as many American, European, Japanese and

Korean companies have over the last century.

Chinese EV players hope to follow in the footsteps of Japanese and Korean auto makers over

the last 40 years, with the goal of someday becoming the largest auto maker in the US – a feat

Toyota has only recently accomplished. It will surely be a very long road, but given strong

support from the Chinese government and an underlying desire for Chinese manufacturers to

move away from making children’s toys and towards high-value and high-tech consumer

products, we believe these companies should have a decent shot at success. Some of these

companies have recently started selling their cars outside of China (e.g. NIO and XPEV in

Norway) and these early attempts bear close monitoring.

One cannot talk about the EV industry without paying due respect to Tesla, which is not only the

largest EV seller in the US, but also in China, having about 20% market share, which is

equivalent to NIO, LI and XPEV combined. We see a reasonable basis for drawing a parallel here

between the smartphone and EV industries. Early on, Apple led the way in smartphones with its

revolutionary iPhone, and a number of Android-based phone manufacturers led by Samsung

completely took over the industry once dominated by traditional cell phone manufacturers

such as Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson. At the time, Chinese manufacturers had very little

presence. A few years later, leveraging the massive domestic cell phone end market and robust

domestic component supply chain, Chinese brands such as Huawei and Xiaomi quickly

emerged as top 5 global smartphone manufacturers. In the case of EVs, we think Chinese

剩余89页未读，继续阅读

评论收藏

内容反馈

制了个了个杖

粉丝: 26
资源: 499

【20220208】中国电动汽车行业报告-巴克莱_90页_英.pdf

最新资源

【20220208】中国电动汽车行业报告-巴克莱_90页_英.pdf

中国电动汽车行业报告（英）-巴克莱-2022.2.8-90页.pdf

巴克莱Global-Portfolio-Manager-s-Digest-Who-Has-the-Power-.pdf

中国视频行业报告：繁荣后的未来尚不明朗（英）-巴克莱-2022.2.8-88页.pdf

康菲石油ConocoPhillips-201409_Barclays CEO Energy Conference_By_CEO_20210910151237.pdf

巴克莱-全球支付与金融科技行业：向无现-社会的过渡-2020.6.25-77页精品报告2020.pdf

巴克莱-美股-保险行业-美国保险业：巴克莱金融会议预览——_财务与寿险27页.pdf

巴克莱-美股-电力与公用事业行业-软件与公用事业：确_保电网安全4页.pdf

巴克莱银行Barclays-201506_Personal and Corporate Banking_Deutsche Bank_Slides.pdf

可口可乐CocaCola-2014_Barclays 2014 Back-to-School Consumer Conference_By_President.pdf

巴克莱-美股-银行业-美国中型银行业：Q1季度评论与10-K摘要-314-47页.pdf

巴克莱-美股-电力与公用事业行业-北美电力与公用事业行业：巴克莱E_EI问题库3页.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Global_Macro_Thoughts_Bull_in_China_s_shop.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】US_Credit_Alpha_Tone_shift.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Global_Outlook_As_goes_America.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Equity_Market_Review_Don_t_fight.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Tricks.pdf

相关实用应用程序（Windows可用）

李飞飞自传 我看见的世界 The World I see

ChatGPT使用总结：150个ChatGPT提示词模板（完整版）

全国计算机二级WPSoffice精选350道选择题题库（含答案）.pdf

Visio2013 安装包及破解方法

软件项目管理 山东科技大学

嵌入式Linux下基于C语言实现的摄像头图像采集与远程传输解决方案

西南交通大学车辆工程专业大四上车辆综合实训ame仿真模型

DBeaver 序列码， DBeaver Ultimate 24.3.0 可用

哈尔滨工业大学-ChatGPT调研报告-2023.3.6-94页.pdf

eetop.cn-07-1射频电路设计理论与应用-王子宇 -课后答案1-10章

最新资源

李飞飞自传我看见的世界 The World I see

软件项目管理山东科技大学