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independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail
investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its
own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests
may be contrary to the recommendations oered in this report.
Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its ailiates does and seeks to do business with companies
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a
conflict of interest that could aect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this
report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
* This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research Analyst
All research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,
including analyst certifications and other required disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in this
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FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 37.
FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 37.
FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 38.
Global Portfolio Manager's Digest
Tricks of the Trade
We provide context and perspective on research across regions
and asset classes, this week highlighting our analysis of the
economic impacts of a potential global trade war; key
takeaways from the Barclays Global Financial Services
Conference; and our latest FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly.
• Impacts of a Global Trade War: In our view, US tari increases to 60% and 10% on goods
imports from China and the RoW, respectively, as proposed by former President Trump,
would be a significant escalation of trade restrictions. Assuming symmetric retaliation from
all US trading partners, but accounting for dierent confidence eects, we estimate the eect
on the level of real GDP to be -2.0%, -1.4%, and -0.7% for China, the US, and the euro area
(EA), respectively, in the first 12 months. Inflation would rise in the short run, especially in the
US, by around 0.9pp, by our estimates, as the negative supply shock from higher taris
increases prices. US monetary policy would initially likely remain slightly tighter than in our
baseline of no tari increases, as inflation rises. But as activity starts weakening, amid trade
policy uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, we would expect the Fed to ease policy
rates more aggressively, possibly as much as 100bp. For the larger and more closed US
economy, the negative short-term eect would also likely more easily dissipate in the
following years. It could be more persistent for the more export-dependent China, EA, and
small open EM economies, especially if global trade tensions were to escalate beyond the
initial US tari increases.
• Global Financial Services Conference Takes: Despite loan growth remaining so and the
Fed widely expected to begin easing next week, most banks felt good about 2H24 net interest
income expectations as deposit trends show continued signs of stabilization. Still, investors
remain uncertain about how to think about 2025 net interest income. While fee income
should remain sound, some felt near-term trading and investment banking results could be a
little soer than expected; investment banking fees, however, should continue to rebound
Cross Asset Research
15 September 2024
FOCUS
Equity Product Management Group
Terence Malone
*
+ 1 212 526 7578
terence.malone@barclays.com
BCI, US
Rob Bate
*
+44 (0)20 7773 3576
rob.bate@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
FICC Product Management Group
Ben McLannahan
*
+44 (0)20 3134 9586
ben.mclannahan@barclays.com
Barclays, UK
Jennifer Cardilli
*
+1 212 526 8351
jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com
BCI, US
Completed: 13-Sep-24, 21:41 GMT Released: 15-Sep-24, 13:00 GMT Restricted - External
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