【巴克莱-2024研报-】Equity_Market_Review_Don_t

研究报告

175 浏览量 2024-11-22 08:41:49 上传评论收藏 1017KB PDF 举报

资源推荐

资源详情

资源评论

 Equity Market Review

Our weekly pack contains key

charts on performance valuation

and technicals

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its ailiates does and seeks to do business with companies

covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a

conflict of interest that could aect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this

report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based

outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.

Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 7.

Equity Market Review

Don't fight the Fed, don't short

Cyclicals

It seems clear now that the Fed has shied to growth

preservation mode. Time will tell, but with incoming data

holding up, aso landing stays on track. The rebound in activity

surprises and positive year end seasonality may give legs to the

short squeeze in Cyclicals. Now focus turns to Sep PMIs and

upcoming Q3 earnings.

Weekly market commentary

Don't fight the Fed. Fed's surprise 50bp cut and

accompanying message seem clearly designed to pull out

all the stops to achieve a so landing. Risk assets' initial

reaction has been positive, which along the bear

steepening of the yield curve, suggest markets are buying into this scenario - the Fed put is in

play.However, compared to the 'new dots' showing a slower pace of rate cuts going forward,

with only two more 25bp cuts this year and four in 2025 (seeSeptember FOMC: A 50bp re-

calibration, 19 Sep),the rates path reflected into current market pricing looks rather aggressive

to us. Incoming data will impact these expectations, and if it confirms the recent bounce in the

US, we doubt the Fed will cut as much as currently priced in. But for the time being, absent a

catalyst to challenge the so landing script, we believe the path of least resistance for equities

and Cyclicals is to the upside. As we discussed in our report earlier this week(seeWhat next

aer the first cut, 18 Sep), equities and Cyclicals typically rebounded steadily aer the Fed

started its rate cut cycle...as long as it was not followed by a recession.



Equity Research

Equity Strategy

20 September 2024

CORE

European Equity Strategy

Emmanuel Cau, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 0475

emmanuel.cau@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Matthew Joyce, CFA

+33 (0)1 4458 3341

matthew.joyce@barclays.com

BBI, Paris

Magesh Kumar Chandrasekaran, CFA

+44 (0)20 3134 5983

magesh.kumarchandrasekaran@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Emmanuel Makonga

+44 (0)20 7773 2593

emmanuel.makonga@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Arihanth Bohra Jain

+91 (0)22 6175 1406

arihanth.bohrajain@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Completed: 20-Sep-24, 04:20 GMT Released: 20-Sep-24, 04:25 GMT Restricted - External

FIGURE 1. Market pricing of cuts still very dovish compared to new

Fed dots and Barclays revised forecasts

FIGURE 2. Cyclicals have tended to outperform in regimes of yield

curve bear steepening

2.65

2.90

3.15

3.40

3.65

3.90

4.15

4.40

4.65

4.90

5.15

Current Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25

US implied policy rate : latest Fed dots

US: 17/9/24 US Barc f/c

Bear

steepener

Bear flattener

Bull

steepener

Bull flattener

Europe 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3%

Financials 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0%

O&G 1.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9%

Basic Materials 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1%

C Disc 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.6%

Industrials 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3%

Tech 1.9% 1.4% 0.1% 1.1%

C Staples 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 1.8%

H Care 0.1% 0.3% 1.5% 2.0%

Telcos 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2%

Utilities 0.2% -0.2% 1.1% 1.6%

Cyc vs Def 0.4% -0.1% -0.4% -0.1%

Cyc 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7%

Def 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8%

Avg EU monthly returns during US 10y-2y curve regimes

OIS pricing as of 19 Sep 2024

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Economics Research, Barclays Research Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research

FIGURE 3. Cyclicals' fortunes vs. Defensives could improve if activity

surprises keep rebounding

FIGURE 4. Seasonally Q4 is the strongest quarter for Cyclical's

performance vs. Defensives

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

01-Jan 15-Feb 31-Mar 15-May 29-Jun 13-Aug 27-Sep

Erp Cyclicals vs def perf Global CESI (rhs)

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Europe cyc avg perf since 1996 Europe Def

Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Bloomberg, Barclays Research Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Barclays Research

Cyclicals short squeeze may have legs. In our EMR last week (Cyclicals undershoot, 13 Sep),

we flagged that Cyclicals may be due a bounce, given their oversold levels and recent

undershooting of fundamentals, having lagged Defensives since early Q2. Although headwinds

from weakening China growth and US election uncertainty aren't going away, the recent pick-up

in US/EU economic surprises and bear steepening of the yield curve could provide more

fundamental support to Cyclicals. Furthermore, we note that seasonally Q4 is the strongest

quarter for equities performance, and favours Cyclicals over Defensives(based on avg.perf

since 1996). And finally, given how defensive equity positioning had become since summer (as

discussed in our Who Owns WhatDip buying and rotation, 28 Aug),more of a rebound in

Cyclicals would likely be a pain trade for most investors.

Back to fundamentals - PMIs and earnings. With the long awaited first Fed cut in the rear view

mirror, markets should focus back on fundamentals. September flash PMIs next week should

give us an indication of the growth dynamics going into the year end.We note that EPS revisions

20 September 2024 2

Barclays | Equity Market Review

剩余10页未读，继续阅读

评论收藏

内容反馈

soso1968

粉丝: 3330
资源: 1万+

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Equity_Market_Review_Don_t_fight.pdf

最新资源

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Equity_Market_Review_Don_t_fight.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报-】Equity_Market_Review_Don_t_fight_the_Fed.pdf

【巴克莱-2024研报】European_Equity_Research_Stocks_to_own_for_2025.pdf

【UBS-2024研报】Global Strategy _Hedging equity Australian.pdf

【UBS-2024研报】China Equity Strategy _More volatilities.pdf

【UBS-2024研报】US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 3Q24 November.pdf

【UBS-2024研报】US Equity Strategy _Earnings Brief 3Q24 October.pdf

【德意志银行-2024研报】China Equity Strategy Trend change-110935950.pdf

【UBS-2024研报】Global Equity Strategy China investments sell.pdf

中国私募股权投资系列-BAIN_REPORT_Global_Private_Equity_Report_2017.pdf

中国私募股权投资系列-REPORT_Healthcare_Private_Equity_and_Corporate_M＆A.pdf

Model_Insight_China_Equity_Model_CNE5_Empirical_Notes_July_2012.pdf

巴克莱银行Barclays-201506_Personal and Corporate Banking_Deutsche Bank_Slides.pdf

HSBCChina Equity Strategy-How to ride the going global wave.pdf

The Barra China Equity Model (CNE5) - Empirical Notes.pdf

巴克莱-美股-石油与天然气行业-北美石油与天然气行业Q1预览-4-26页.pdf

巴克莱-美股-银行业-银行红利：第四季度财报季度展望-2019.1.31-22页.pdf

HSBCChina Equity Strategy-2H24 outlook Third Plenum .pdf

瑞信-美股-保险行业2019._7.18-39页.pdf

Equity_8X-源码.rar

Equity-Linked-structural-analysis.zip_B/S结构_收益模型_期权定价模型_股票期权定价

All_Daily_Equity_Data(1).csv

巴克莱-美股-电力与公用事业行业-北美电力与公用事业行业：巴克莱E_EI问题库3页.pdf

巴克莱-未来10年全球投资主题路线图-2021.3.2-46页.pdf.pdf

品职教育2020年6月CFA三级知识框架图_Equity_李斯克.pdf

数据-行业数据-化学工业_全行业_平均值_净资产收益率.rar

相关实用应用程序（Windows可用）

李飞飞自传 我看见的世界 The World I see

ChatGPT使用总结：150个ChatGPT提示词模板（完整版）

最新资源

李飞飞自传我看见的世界 The World I see