J.P. 摩根-全球宏观数据观察-宏观策略--2018.7.6-82页.pdf

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J.P. 摩根-全球宏观数据观察-宏观策略--2018.7.6-82页.pdf
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Economic research JMOrgan Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-5515 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Global Data Watch bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com Juy6,2018 David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 david. hensley jpmorgan. com This forecast does not ignore genuine risks posed by an inten- icy, growth-supportive mcasures could include support for sification of global trade tensions. We believe rising tariffs infrastructure investment, vat rebates for tariff-impacted will weigh on growth, and industrial activity is likely to bear exporters increased from around 8%o to a maximum of 16%0; the brunt of this drag. However, the tariffs imposed thus far and tax reductions for targeted companies(e. g, SMEs) should not have a material direct impact. A hit to global busi ness sentiment is likely to be the key drag. But the size of the Figure 4: EM new export orders PMI hit uncertain and it is not likely to be felt this quarter DI, Sa EMAX is EM Asia ex China and India This suggests a dual tack in this quarters global data watch EA EM ing. At the same time that we track the anticipated pickup in activity to assess the fundamental health of the global expan- sion, we will pay close attention to news on trade and its im- EMAX pact on business sentiment. While the latest global PMI shows a significant fall-off in future output expectations that may be China linked to trade concerns. June surveys of capital spending intentions actually moved higher in the US, Germany, and 2016 2017 2018 2019 Japan(Figure 3) ource:J.P. Morgan Figure 3: Manufacturing output and capex, expectations EM Asian CB tightening on the way. Std. dev from 2010-forward average. PMi is 2012-fcrward While China is easing, rate normalization should gather stear (Fed surveys) elsewhere in EM Asia this quarter. We have hikes projected German for Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Korea. We dont capex expect India to move until next quarter but the risks of an Au- ans (IFO) gust move are rising The bank of Korea meets next week but we are inclined to Global PMi future scc its ncxt ratc move coming in August. The May mPc output minutes tilted hawkish on a sanguine growth and inflation 201520162017 2019 outlook and heightened concern about the negative Korea-US Source: J.P. morgan policy interest rate differential. Although the data since the China is divergent on growth and policy May meeting have been upbeat, uncertainties around the BoKs forecast have increased, reflecting heightened trade As US-China trade relations enter a new phase, with US tar policy tension and tighter financial conditions in EM trading iffs and Chinese countervailing measures taking hold, the two partners. Against this backdrop, we expect the bok to leave economies are moving in different directions. While the Us its base rate unchanged next week, but likely with a hawkish accelerated sharply to a projected 4% ar last quarter, china ignal that points to an August move appears to be slowing. This slowing reflects the intended fects of credit policies, which have lowered fixed investment At its June meeting, Indias mPc emphasized various domes- growth to 6. 1%oya in the first five months of this year--the tic and global uncertainties that suggested it was in no rush to lowest reading Since 1990. External supports probably limited hike in successive meetings. A number of developments since the slowing in overall growth last quarter-we project GDP then are pressuring it to reconsider this signal of a pause growth to have eased moderately to 6.6% ar in 2Q18-but Since the June meeting, core CPI maintained upward momen trade tensions may soon remove this support. Indeed, this tum, oil prices have remained high, and the rupee has contin week's regional PMi reports show China's export orders fall- ued to weaken. Perhaps most importantly, this week the gov ing to the lowest level in two years at the same time that ernment followed through on its budgetary promise to hike EMAX readings took a material step higher(Figure 4) agricultural support prices in a pre-election year. While this was in line with our expectations, the mpc has only cited this These developments should produce a China policy response as an upside inflation risk. This, together with an expected that is increasingly likely to be broad-based. On the monetary acceleration in next week's June CPI report, is likely to push policy front we expect the PbOC to deliver two additional up the rbrs 1Q19 inflation forccast further above 5% and 50bp rrr cuts and relax loan quotas on banks. On fiscal pol JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Economic research J MOrgan Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-5515 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Global Data Watch bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com Juy6,2018 David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 david. hensley jpmorgan. com significantly incrcascs the odds of the rate hike bcing brought ycar, we now assume that Saudi oil production will incrcase forward to august 2.5%on average this year and next. There could be scope fo Saudi arabia to raise production even further depending, in ,along with hikes in Turkey particular, on the effectiveness of unilateral US sanctions on Turkey is also under pressure to raise rates as the June CPI Iran. It remains to be seen whether the authorities opt to use revealed clear upward pressure on prices. We have revised increased production revenues to balance the fiscal accounts our year-end inflation forecast to 13.2% from 11.8%and now faster or choose to stimulate economic activity further, but we expect the CBrt to hike rates by 125bp in July Growth mo- believe stimulus is the more likely priority mentum is already faltering and further monetary tightening and weaker sentiment will translate into even slower growth Landslide victory for AMLO in Mexico This week we lower our GDP growth forecast for this year to A preliminary vote count showed AMLO won last weekends 3.7% and next year to 2.8%, assuming a prudent government election in Mexico by a large margin, attaining over 50% of is formed and the cbrt keeps its policies tight for some total votes cast. At the same time, and to our surprise, AMlO time secured a simple majority in both the lower house and the senate, which will allow him, among other things, to control Brexit: Cards on the table fiscal policy over the next three years. Greater control raises Next week, the uK will publish proposals for its future rela- the risk of a more radical shift in policy but initial signals tionship with the eu that flesh out its ideas for the"Backstop from the new government are calming these fears. AMLO to ensure a hard border in Ireland is prevented. At the time of delivered an orthodox victory speech, stressing his commit writing, their content is not clcar. But the proposals are rc ment to central bank independence, fis ported to see the uk commit to align with single market regu oline, and a centralized police force. At the same time he sounded conciliatory, thanking President Pena Nieto for his lations in the goods sector, follow ECJ jurisprudence on the interpretation of those rules, and collect tariffs on behalf of endorsement while also mentioning the importance of sup the eu. after the transition period ends the uk would remain porting and respecting private investment to boost growth in a customs union with the Eu until such time as the systems to implement a dual tariff regime with a soft Irish border are AMLO's would-be governing cabinet--including Chief of Staff alfonso romo and minister of finance Carlos urzua- in place. The immediate question is whether PM May can withstand the political backlash from those in the uk who see echoed his message this week, while his nAFTA chief nego this as a denial of the"clean"Brexit they sought Our best tiator also allayed concerns by committing to maintain the guess is that she will. The next question is whether the pro- current government's negotiating strategy. However, details posal convincessoft" Brexit Conservatives that they should and actual policy actions are still pending The 2019 fiscal budget and the medium-term National development plan will not impose a permanent Customs Union with the eu as a uK negotiating objective. That issuc will scc votes in the Com- be closely watched for signals on these two fronts. Abiding by mons on July 16/17. How the eu reacts to the proposals will an orthodox economic policy framework will be paramount also influence that vote. We expect the eu will not take long for markets to remain at ease with AMLO's victory, particu to state that it does not see the proposals as respecting th larly given the power he will wield at both the federal and integrity of the single market or able to convincingly deliver local levcls solution to the irish issue at this stage the commons cus- toms union vote looks too close to call Oil production boosted Gcc growth With US sanctions looming over Iran and conflict disrupting oil supply in libya, we expect the gcc and iraq to be the main beneficiaries of the recent opec decision to raise oil output. accordingly, we have raised our 2018 GCC GDP growthforccastto2.8%from2.2%.AnotherconscqucnccofEditorGabrieldeKock(1-212)622-6718gabriel.s.dekock@jpmorgan.com higher oil prices and production is a faster-than-expected im- provement in external and fiscal balances. As the top oil pro- ducer, Saudi arabia stands to benefit the most in the region After previously assuming almost flat hydrocarbon output this JPMorgan Chase Economic researc J. P. Morgan sley(1-212)834-5516 h Lupton(1-212)8345735 mic outlook sum- ey@』morgan.com p.lupton@jpmorgan.com rong(1-212)8345612 July6,2018 carlton. mstrong@ al economic outle Ilook summa a Real GDP Real gdP Consumer prices y cver a year ag % %o over a year ago 20172018 19 101820183018 Q1 19 2Q18 4Q182Q United States 2.3 8897 212 7 27329 03 420 21 58 3 8 12133 22 51 922 Latin america 1.71.7L 3.2J 1.0J 7145 223 .6 406 Argentina 905 728 0 7 2134142246424 50 03310008820090 -6. 21202 B 07 8 28753 08 35 580 26 29. 76 25. Chile Colombia 111 2422 231232 90 5343 .5 224 32 25 33 3 3.7 Ecuador 80056 0.0↓ 023 -0.5↓ 4.9 -0 -0, 8 0.6 Mexico 242 1 3 Pe 414 6030 98761509 35650 242 2 322225122666435 256081760 204 5559 8448 1328 venezuela 0-10 Asia/Pacific 4. 412 8 2 7 0 australia 6 14113 8507550 New zealand 12266744 2.6 6224939 27 41225 6556730 412256 75877 26639869628 02 121224 19 EM Asia China 567 .3 India 2829713119 943 7.9 67 225 5 .0 Ex China/India 0 3.8 2. 673 731 2 Hong Kong 028 352 327 3 042667496456108 9625640 185702286 31 50 63552 595370 23 50 3963828596 2. Indor 3.1 52 -0 435722 42 70 4 4 268221896859 740 16 Philippines 6.7 56 7 63 5.0 03 Singapore Taiwan 2.9 324 3.63.2 62232222 4 624 780 7 6. .3 84 22 .5 550549 Thailand 27524204848596265275 3.945 8.12.54.5 4.13.4 Westem Europe 242.2 2 2 3 Euro area 2 Germany 6536 552 2 2 455 222 455355330 222 330 222 233 1412111121 111 France 2.0 2 09605647424 532 18 1.5 972049792083 Sp 3.1 2. Norway Swede 222123 477049 8399 2222 835 2222 222 5533 222 310 22 1987159422 United Kingdom 1 1.8 2 5 EMEA EM 3.929 55 22 26↑ 21↓ 24↓ 4. Czech Republi 4.5 536 9383808633 ↑ Hungary 4.042 4220 9286 2 6960 Israel 3.3 Poland 4.6 44 Romania 6 Russia 95344 3431133 332 78 8451281 -0. 1110122204244602283153b 95606201668 545 ↑ 423303 088255 3333 0568 3333 588 202 4 524 .9 14 .5 2. u966179776 5710285 South africa 22 308236 ↑ 5 Turke 082 0 16732 Global Developed marke 3493m 2.324 3243 198 373243 0458 334490 615 Emerging market 3243 Global-PPP weigh 3.9 ome emerging economies seasonally adjusted ted gdp data are estin ed by J. P 1346m 324 103324 219 212 2232 834684107 7 2512 2132 5959 an. Bold der otes changes from last edition of Global of global data Watch with arrows show ction of changes. Underline indicates beginning of J.P. Morg gan nt a G P ted with current FX are used in ir global and regional aggregates. Regional CI onal CPl aggregates exclude de argentina, ecuador and venezuel Venezuela. Regional GDP aggregates ates exclude Venezuela. Forecasts for e based on JPMorgan's estimates of CPl. Soul Source: J. P. Morgan JPMorgan chase Bank Na Economic Research David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 J. P. Morgan Global Data Watch davidhensley(@jpmorgan.com joseph.p.lupton(@jpmorgan.com Juy6,2018 arton Strong(1-212)834-5612 carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.com G-3 economic outlook detail 2018 2019 201720182019 4Q 1Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q United states Real GDP 224 32823 322.9 2.04.02525 320 Private consumption 2.4 2.2 4.0 0.92 23 2.222 Equipment investment 5.6 4.0 10.811.5 5.83.04.54.5 4.5 45 Non-residential construction 5.68.154 -70 16.211.6 80 4.54.5 Intellectual property products 4.7 26 52 0.8 13.2-0.12525 3.030 Residential construction 1.81308 -47128 1.11.11010 0.808 Inventory change(S bn saar) 15.2249545 38515.6 13.910.2324432474508 Govemment spending 2.2 Exports of goods and services 034 34 07 1.32 2 4.7 4.2 29 51 2.1 7.0 3611.850 5.0 4.545 mports of goods and services 4.9 74 -0.714. 32-049.0 58 7.575 Domestic final sales contribution 2.5 2.7 26 204 2.1242 29 2.72.5 Inventories contribution -0 C.1 02 08-0.6 0.0-0.1 02 Net trade contribution -0.1 0A 05 04-1.2 0.0 1.7070.6 -0.6-0.6 Consumer prices (%oya) 2.6 23 20 2.3 272825 2.224 Excluding food and energy (%oya) 2.2 24 1.71. 19222.323 2.22.3 Core Pce deflator(%oya) 2.0 41.5 1.6 2.2 Federal budget balance(% of GDP, FY -3.4 394.8 Personal saving rate (%) 34 3.1 2.7 2.7 3.3 13029 828 Unemployment rate % 443.833 4.1 4.13.93.73.6 343.3 Industrial production, manufacturing 2.5 15 -2.1 1.2 10 Euro area Real gD 23 2928 1525 23 23 Private consumption 18 2.2 1507 1.9252.023 2323 Capital investment 3.7 5.5 2.04.0404.0 3.535 Government consumption 1.2 1.1 15 15 15 15 15 Exports of goods and services 3.7 9.1 16 4134 4040 3.535 Imports of goods and services 4.5 33 4 206.2 05 4545 4.040 Domestic final sales contribution 19 23 .52.5222.3 2.223 Inventories contribution C.2 01 -0.2-0.6 0.60.303-0.1 0.1 Net trade contribution 00 2.1 1.6 60.3000.0 -0 -0.1 Consumer prices(HICP, %ya) 1.5 1.7 14 1.31.71918 14 ex food, alcohol and energy 15 120.9 1.0 1.0 10 14 General govt budget balance(% of GDP, FY 1.1 -09 Unemployment rate(%) 9.18274 90 8.5848. 9 7.67 Industrial production 2.9 29 78 52 24 30 3.03.0 Japan Real GDP 1.7 14 20 0620151.51.520 Private consumption C.5 -27 1.3 031.5151.0 20 Business investment 2.9 2.8 133.04030 3.0 Residential construction 2.73.84 -63-10.3 721.0105010.0100 Public investment 2-0.30 -10.1 0.52.0000.0 00.0 Government consumption 0.4 C.6 0.6 02 0.2 040.80805 0.5 05 Exports of goods and services 6.7 4.2 8.29.2 2.66.05050 4.04.0 Imports of goods and services 4.3 129 2.0 70 4.0 4.080 Domestic final sales contribl 1.2 0.7 -16 0.8 -0.1 1617 13 14 Inventories contribution C.0 00 130.8 -0.7 02 0. 04 Net trade contribution 0.50.40.0 230.6 0214030.20.0-07 Consumer prices (%coya) 1.1 06 0.6 30.81.11.1 1.1 ex food and energy -0.2 C.4 04 02 0.0 0.20.20.50.7 0.91.0 General govt. net lending(% of GDP, CY) -4.1 3628 Unemployment rate(%) 23 2.2 28 27 2.523232.2 2.2 2.1 Industrial production 2.5 3.7 6.5 537. 403.0 4.04.5 Memo: Global industrial production 3032282. 4.2 2.834342.6 2.628 %oya 33 32 3.3 3.23.4 3.0 28 Note: More forecast details for the G-3 and other countries can be found on J. P. Morgan's Morgan Markets client web site. Source: J. P. Morgan JPMorgan chase Bank Na Economic Research J. P. Morgan David Hensley(1-212)834-5516 Olya E Borichevska(1-212)834-5398 Global Central Bank Watch davidhensley(@jpmorgan.com olya.e.borichevska@jpmorgan.comJuly6,2018 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com Global central bank Watch Official Current Change since(bp) Last change Next mtg Forecast rate rate(%pa) 05-07 avg cya next change Sep 18 Dec 18 Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 Global 243 -167 2552.642.75281294 -161 2672702752.73282 Developed 089 -220 1.031.161.301.421.60 Emerging 5.01 201 5.105.135.18513518 Latin America 625 -466 180 6.336376456.31669 EMEA EM 754 105 84777779754726 MASa 4.17 4.214274.314334.37 The americas 283.473.74 United States Fed funds 7513Jun18(+25bp)1Aug1826sep18(+25bp) 252502753.003.25 Canada O/N rate 125 238 7517Jan18(+25bp)11Ju18Ju18(+25bp) 1.501.752.002.25250 SELIC O/N 650 -37521Mar18(25bp)1Aug18Ju19(+50bp) 6.506.50650650750 7721Jun18(+25bp)2Aug18Aug18(+25p) 008008.007507.00 Argentina 4000 9754May18(+40bp)11Ju180ct18(200p) 40.00380036.5034.5033.00 Disc rate 200 018May17(25b)24Ju18oct18(-25bp 2.502.753 3.253.75 Colombi 4.25 300 15029Jan18(-25bp)27J18Dec18(+25b 4.254.505005.00500 Reference 2.75 -1231258Mar18(-25bp)12Ju18Jan19(-25bp)2752.753.25325350 Europe/Africa 236 7 1.421421461421.50 Euro area epo rate -040 010Mar16(5bp)26Ju183Q19(+15bp)-0400.400.40-0.400.25 United Kingdom Bank rate 050 442 252No17(+25bp)2Aug183Q18(+25bp) 0.750.751.001.001.25 Dep rate 050 258 017Mar16(-25bp)16Aug183Q18(+25bp) 0.75 1.00100 1.25 Sweden R -0.50 302 011Feb16-15bp)6sep184Q18(+25bp) -0.500.25-0.250.000.00 Czech Republic 2-Wk repo 100 140 9529Jun18(+25bp)2Aug184Q18(+25bp) 1.001.251.501.751.75 Hungary 3-m dep 090 021May16(-15b)24J183Q19(+20bp) 0.900.900900901.10 Base rate 0.10 -412 023Feb15(-15bp)6Ju181019(+15bp) 0.100250.75 7-day interv 04Mar15(-50bp)11J184Q19(+25bp) 1.501.501.501.501.50 Romania Base rate 250 644 757May18(+25bp)6Aug186Aug18(+25bp) 2.753.003.003.25350 Key pol rate 725 NA-17523Mar18(-25bp)27Jul18Dec18(25bp) 7.257007.00675675 South Africa Repo rate 650 173 5028Mar18(-25bp)19J18J19(+25bp) 6.506506.50650675 Turkey 1-wk repo 17.75 5807Jun18(+125bp)24Ju18Ju18(+125b)19.0019.001900180016.50 Asia/Pacific 3.19 233.263.303.31335 strain Cash rate -438 02Aug16(-25bp)7Aug18 On hold 1.501501501.501.50 New Zealand Cash rate 1.75 556 011Aug16(-25bp)9Aug18 On hold 1.751.75175 1.75 Japan Pol rate joer1 -0.10 528Jan16-20bp)31Ju18 On hold -0.100.10010-0.10-0.10 7513Jun18(+25bp) 26Se18(+25bp) 2.502753.003253.50 China 1-yr working 435 0230t1525bp) On hold 4.354354.354.354.35 orea Base rate 1.50 258 2530N17+25bp)12J183Q18(+25bp) 1.751.752.002002.25 Indonesia2 BI rate 443 5028Jun18(+50bp)19Ju1827sep18(+25bp) 5505756.006.25650 India Repo rate 625 56 06Jun18(+250)1Aug184Q18(+25bp) 6.256506506.506.50 Malaysia O/N rate 325 2525Jan18(+25bp)11Ju18 On hold 3.253 3.253.253.25 Philippines ev repo 5020Jun18(+25bp)9Aug183Q18(+25bp) 3.753.753.753.753.75 Thailand 1-day repo 219 029Apr15(-25bp)8Aug183018(+25bp) 175175202020 Official disc 1.375 14 13830Jun16(-12.5bp)27Sep184Q18(+13bp) 1.381.501.631.751.88 Source: J. P. Morgan. 1 BoJ sets the policy rate on IOER(O/N)and targets 10-year JGB yields as policy guidance Bold denotes move since last GDW and forecast changes. Underline denotes policy meeting during upcoming week Aggregates are GDP-weighted averages. 2 The bl rate for Indonesia reflects announced recalibration effective August 19, 2016 3 The Philippines introduced a recalibrated reverse repo rate effective June 3 at a level of 3.00%o JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Economic Research Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Olya Borichevska(1-212)834-5398 Global Data Watch MOrgan joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com olya.e.borichevska@jpmorgan.comJuly6,2018 David Hensley(1-212 )834-5516 davidhensleyipmorgan.com sianal for growth closer to 3%ar with the global aggregate at 3.0% ar this we k. Is maxey Nowcast global GDP: Stable sitting at a roughly 3. 2% ar since early May. The weight average of our national nowcasters reinforces The J. P. Morgan global gdp growth forecast for the current Figure 1: Global real GDP, 2Q18 JPM forecast quarter remains at a robust 3. 6% ar this week, but risk profiles %qq, saar JPM nowcast across countries are diverging. In the US, we think growth is Nowcast, wghtd avg 3.6 running closer to a 4.3% ar whereas our forecasts for the euro area and China face some downside risk. On the week. we 34 raised our 2Q GDP growth forecast in Russia to 4.8%ar but 3.2 lowered the estimate in South Africa to 1.5% ar We see glob al growth running closer to 3% in the current quarter and also 3.0 next quarter. The June global all-industry PMI reported this 28 week suggests growth at a 3. 4% ar heading into 3Q encour- =8。88吕♀8只 agingly, the composite PMi has moved up modestly in the 喜与与与与与习三言 latest few months. This contrasts with the manufacturing PMi Source: J. P Marcan component, which continued a six-month slide in June. The message of strength comes from the services PMI Table 2: J.P. Morgan global aggregates %ch, sa(ar for grt). PMls are levels. Conf is st dv from 20 10-pres avg Table real GdP 1Q182Q18 Mar18 Apr 18 May 18 Jun18 q/a, saar. Underline indicates J. P. Morgan forecas PMI, mfg 54.6535 534 3.9 534 1Q18 2Q18 PMI. serv 541543 53.253.8543546 ActuallFcst nowcst forecast nowcast P 222.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 Retail sales 54.4 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 Glob .6 Auto sales -7.98.4 4.3 0.6 0.3 Weighted Avg 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.0 Cap. shpmnts 0.3 -0.8 0.6 DM* 14 17 3.1 2.1 Cap. orders -276.2 -2.4 -0.8 0.9 2.0 22 4.0 Cap. imports 19 EMU 14 2.5 1.7 Bus conf 12 1.2 0.9 19 1.8 Cons conf 181.8 18 1.7 Canada 26 2.8 Nowcast 3.63.2 3.3 3.1 Japan -0.4 2.0 2.4 Note. Shadec values show forecasts computed by the Kalman filter estimates from the EM* 53 6.0 dynamic factor model. Underlined values are our estimates based on available data and our judgment. Source: J. P. Morgan, Markit, and national statistical agencies EM Asia 7.5 59 6.6 China 69 82 66 73 Korea 4.1 6 30 2.6 Figure 2: Global real GDP 0.8 4. 2.0 4.5 %q/q, saar; Box shows J. P. Morgan projection for 2Q 3Q, 18; Nowcst thru 2Q18 4.1 4.5 Latam 3.3 3.0 03 -0,4 Nowcaster Brazil 18 20 0.0 C.2 (dashed line shows %m/m) 4.0 4.6 2.5 18 3.5 4.7 46 -5 7.1 3.0 4.9 73 25 Actual/JPl Colombia 28 5 3.0 4.0 (%q/q, saar) 38 3.2 13.6 20 EMEA EM* 4.0 3.8 27 2.6 15 Poland 6.6 43 3.2 1.0 Hungary 4.9 60 201120122013201420152016201720182019 e: J. P Me Czech Republic 2.2 60 4.5 5.1 Romania 54 4.5 1.8 Russia 2.6 2.2 4.8 4.1 as for data fle ported the global g 8.0 60 2.0 0. 4 all-industry June PMis this week. On net both of these came South africa Aggregates are GDP weighted averages of constituents. Source: J.P. Morgan in stronger than we expected based on the flash reports. The main message is that the manufacturing pmi continued to weaken against strengthening in the services counterpart We can also gauge risks to global growth in our nowcaster Away from the PMIs, data updates were marginal. On the model, which filters global activity indicators for a common manufacturing front we continue to track growth close to a signal. Here downside risk bias remains with the nowcaster 903 ar for the previous quarter. However, there are important JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Economic Research MOrgan Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 Olya Borichevska(1-212)834-5398 Nowcast global GDP joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com olya.e.borichevska@jpmorgan.comJuly6,2018 David Hensley(1-212 )834-5516 davidhensleyipmorgan.com regional updates from this week. Following a strong German Figure 5: Euro area real GDP, 2Q18 May ip report our tracking of ip growth in the euro area has %qlq,saar JPM forecast strengthened at the margin. Similarly, Friday's US June labor JPM nowcast market report painted a positive picture for June output, out in two wccks. By contrast, IP is contracting rapidly in brazil where output tumbled 11.9% in May due to the truckers strike. We expect a partial rebound in Brazil Ip in June and July. As for global demand, the rebound in 2Q is looking 19 smaller than a few weeks back. For example, retail sales growth is tracking at a 4.5% ar in 2Q VS the previous 5% Capex growth tracking slowed similarl 、"8"宫"§"8"只8 igure 3: Real GDP risk bias, 2Q18 Source: J. P Marcan %o-pts Nowcast minus forecast actual (where available) Figure 6: EM Asia real GDP, 2Q18 JPM forecast Per:+10.4%-ps %oq!q, saar JPM nowcast 0864 6666 655 0 在巨号器豆是品足当画8活岳要后 Source: J.P. Morgan. Note: Not all nowcasters shown 马弓弓 Source: P Margan Figure 4: US real GDP, 2Q18 JPM forecast Figure 7: Latam real GDP, 2Q18 ‰bq/q,sar JPM forecast 3.0 JPM nowcast %qq, saar ● JPM nowcast 3.0 2.5 505 2.0 1100 00d 1.5 n0.5 10 豆回§§与与与习月是 s"s9"8s§8"s8"g 与与与与与月月月习是是 Source: J.P. Morgan ng to country/regional nowcasters, the negative risk bias Figure 8: EMEA EM real GDP, 2Q18 JPM forecast in our global nowcaster continues to be focused in the Dm JPM nowcast By contrast, the EM aggregate of national nowcasters points 5.0 to growth abovc the official forecast 4.5 433221 s"二8s8"只§8s"g" 塑与号与与习习习是是 Source: J.P. Morgan s For primer on various Nowcasters, click here: GlobaL, US, EMU, UK EM JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Economic Research Bruce Kasman(1-212)834-5515 Joseph Lupton(1-212)834-5735 J. P. Morgan Global Data Watch bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com joseph.p.lupton(@jpmorgan.com Juy6,2018 David Hensley(1-212 )834-5516 davidhensleyipmorgan.com Selected recent research from J. P. Morgan Economics Global Central Europe, Middle East, and Africa Gauging consistency in G3 policy stances, Jun 29, 2018 USD matters a lot for EM policy rate adjustment, Jun 22, 2018 Russia: A few observations on recent growth data, Apr 6, 2018 America first-in gauging the impact of divergent shocks, Jun 15, 2018 Croatia& Serbia: Growing out of debt, Mar 29, 2018 A slow, uneven ascent in DM core inflation, May 25, 20 18 Turkey: The curious case of gold imports, Mar 23, 2018 Reconciling conflicting perspectives on 1Q global growth, May 18, 2018 Japan The next move in global industry is sideways, May 4, 2018 Core goods inflaton is making a comeback, Apr 6, 2018 Autos trade war would have significant impact on Japan, Jun 15, 2018 Global profits still running strong, boosting capex, Mar 23, 2018 Japan: Flexible fscal policy will ontinue even with VAT hike, Jun 1, 2018 Japan probably cannot avoid trade friction with the US, May 11, 2018 United states and canada apan: Impact of US-China trade tension limited, Apr 13, 2018 US: Now thats an expansion, Jun 29, 2018 Japan: Capex ikely to accelerate in 2018 with labor shortage, Apr 6, 2018 US: Wage puzzle could be solved soon, Jun 15, 2018 Japans inflation: Steady wage growth with JPY uncertainty, Mar 29, 2018 US: Is the 2020 recession a self-defeating prophecy? Jun 8, 2018 Japan welcomes foreigners, but not immigrants, Mar 16, 2018 US: Gauging the growth effects of higher oil prices, May 25, 2018 Non-Japan Asia and Pacific US: Dont fret about household debt ( yet), May 18, 2018 US: Stick a fork in manufacturing productivity growth, May 11, 2018 Beware the weak links in China' s balance of payments, Jun 29, 2018 US: Has anyone seen that confounded fiscal stimulus? May 4, 2018 Tracking the terms of trade transmission in Australia, Jun 22, 2018 US: Labor market set to keep tightening, Apr 27, 2018 EM Asia's trade shuffle: Tracking shifting supply chains, Jun 8, 2018 US: Line change at the Fed but still the same game plan, Apr 20, 2018 Has India caught the Dutch Disease? Jun 8, 2018 Should we worry about a US sovereign debt crisis? Apr 13, 2018 Hong Kong As flush liquidity meets higher US rates, Jun 1, 2018 US: Consumers start to climb out of 1Q pothole, Apr 6, 2018 Australian employment growth: A tale of two sectors, May 18, 2018 US: Is the increase in LIBOR-OIS a macroeconomic story? Mar 29, 2018 Korea: Labor market slack to mitigate Bok hawkishness, May 18, 2018 Big data and machine learning in macroeconomic forecasting, Mar 29, 2018 Australia: Calibrating the credit slowdown, May 11, 2018 US: The square peg and round hole of fiscal and trade policies, Mar 16, 2018 Australia: Is public capex a growth panacea? May 11, 2018 Korea: Capex growth to slow in 2018 even with firm jump in 1Q, Apr 20, 2018 Western Europe Australia: Capex consequences of the profits recovery, Apr 13, 2018 Euro area: Autos trade war begins to raise concern, Jun 29, 2018 China: Four questions about M2 growth, Apr 6, 2018 Breit practicalities: The impact on fims and households Jun 29, 2018 Nuances in ASEANs monetary policy: Small fish, big sea, Apr 6, 2018 Sweden: General election campaign warming up, Jun 22, 2018 RBNZ: When might the dual mandate matter? Mar 29, 2018 Euro area growth Still looking for a 2%-2.5% economy, Jun 15, 2018 Australia: Somethings gotta give, and it's probably saving, Mar 23, 2018 Risk of an ECB QE extension from September, Jun 1, 2018 Thailand: The deadweight of external surpluses, Mar 23, 2018 Euro area: Consumer spending to accelerate, May 25, 2018 Australia: Sense and serviceability, Mar 16, 2018 Euro area How brent affects HiCP inflation, May 25, 2018 EM ASia exports: Still hitched to the G3 locomotive, Mar 16, 2018 Strengths and weaknesses in Euro area labor markets, May 25, 2018 Latin america Parallel universe? Fiscal money in the Euro area, May 25, 2018 Euro area: Irish data are a huge source of noise, May 18, 2018 Brazil: It can always get worse-revising our GDP and CPl forecasts, Jun 1, 2018 Labor shortages in the Euro area go through the roof, May 11, 2018 Brazil: FX and growth passthrough to inflation, May 25, 2018 Eurozone reform: Limited steps likely at June summit, May 11, 2018 Mexico: The weight of informality, May 18, 2018 Riksbank: a closer look at the currency passthrough, May 11, 2018 Mexico: Elections take center stage as campaigns kick off, Mar 16, 2018 Western European central banks run their economies hot, May 4, 2018 Brazil Mind the gap, Mar 9, 2018 Euro area: Inflation expectations and official forecasts, Apr 27, 2018 Germany: GDP revisions and some thoughts on 1Q18, Apr 27, 2018 Special Reports and Global Issues Italy: Labor market healing faster than it looks, Apr 27, 2018 Fiscal policy loses cydical plot, June 4, 2018 Euro area enjoys a fiscal sweet spot, Apr 20, 2018 Revisiting BoJ's policy path: Volcker moment may not succeed, May 31, 2018 Brexit: Simmering in the background, Apr 20, 2018 Brexit's birthday gift is a f22bn hit to the economy, May 22, 2018 Looking at the ECB given the experience of the Fed, Apr 13, 2018 A new normal: Global FX reserves on more modest growth path, May 2, 2018 ECB: The journey to a"normal"balance sheet may never end, Apr 13, 2018 Middle East and North Africa: Looking towards a brighter future, May 1, 2018 UK: Inflation to slow this year, but remain above target, Apr 13, 2018 Ten questions about china in 2018. Jan 16 2018 Euro area: Falling youth unemployment hides challenges, Mar 23, 2018 US: Unwrapping the tax package, Dec 21, 2017 Brexit: Transition agreed, reland and trade still to do, Mar 23, 2018 Latin America 2018 Outlook: Surfing the election tsunami, Dec 12, 2017 UK: A slow exit from a phase of growth underperformance, Mar 23, 2018 EM Asia 2018 outlook: Hoping for continued productivity lift, Dec 7, 2017 New target had limited impact on Norges Banks view, Mar 23, 2018 US outlook 2018: Eat, drink, and be merry, for in 2019., Nov 28, 2017 Global outlook 2018: The return of the business cycle, Nov 22, 2017 Note: Research notes listed have been published in GDW, Special Reports and Global ssues are stand-alone features, but may also have appeared in some form in GDw

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