电网关键物资采购价格的预测模型
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中国科技论文在线
电网关键物资采购价格的预测模型
杨颜洁
1
，易校石
2
，易正俊
1**
（1. 重庆大学数学与统计学院，重庆，401331；
2. 伊犁师范大学数学与统计学院，伊犁，835000） 5
作者简介：杨颜洁（1981-），女，统计学
通信联系人：易正俊（1963-），男，教授、硕导，大数据分析. E-mail: [email protected]
摘要：电缆，箱式变电站，变压器等是电网正常运行的关键物资，电力公司对这些核心物资
的采购是计划部门根据实际的需求给出一个申报价格；然后由公司对这些关键设备的采购进
行融资，最后进行招标。但申报价格与招标价格经常出现较大的偏差，导致了不必要的融资
高额利息，提高了采购成本，影响到电能的合理定价和电力系统维护成本的预算。本文为了10
使得申报价格与实际招标执行价格有较高的一致性，对电网关键物资的执行价格建立一个预
测模型，预测的采购价格作为申报价格，精准地确定融资规模，降低所负担的高额利息，控
制物资的采购成本、提升电网物资价格管理水平，实现电力公司基于数据的物资采购和合理
确定电价的决策模式。
关键词：物资采购；预测模型；融资规模；数据决策 15
中图分类号：Q29
Prediction Model of Procurement Price of Key Material in
Power Grid
Yang Yanjie
1
, Yi Xiaoshi
2
, Yi Zhengjun
1
20
(1. Mathematics and Statistics School, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 401331;
2. Mathematics and Statistics School, Yili Normal University, Yili,835000)
Abstract: Cables, box substations and transformers are the key materials for the normal operation of
the power grid. The procurement of these core materials by the power company is that the planning
department gives a declared price according to the actual needs. The company then finances the 25
purchase of these key equipment, and finally invites tenders. However, there are often large deviations
between the declared price and the bidding price, which leads to unnecessary financing with high
interest, increases the procurement cost, and affects the reasonable pricing of electricity and the budget
of the maintenance cost of the power system. In order to make the declared price more consistent with
the actual bidding execution price. Establish a forecasting model for the execution price of key 30
materials in power network, and use the forecasted purchase price as the declared price. Determine the
scale of financing accurately, reduce the high interest burden, control the purchase cost of materials,
and improve the management level of material price in power grid. Realize the decision-making mode
of material purchasing based on data and determining electricity price reasonably.
Key words: Material Purchasing; Forecasting Model; Financing Scale; Data Decision 35
0 引言
电网物资对关键设备的采购方式一般是计划部门根据实际的需求给出一个申报价格，然
后电网公司根据申报价格进行融资，最后进行招标，虽然电网关键物资的采购价格在一定的
时间比较稳定，对自变量不敏感。但是在经济环境发生大的变化时，各种原材料的价格在一40
定的范围内有较大的波动，而电网关键设备从申报、融资、招标经历较长的时间段，招标时
间相对于申报时间有较长的时间滞后，致使申报价格与招标执行价格经常出现较大的偏差，
产生了不必要的融资高额利息，提高了设备的采购成本，且对电价的制定和电网的维护成本
预算有很大的影响。因此需要对电网关键物资建立恰当的预测模型，把电网关键物资的预测
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