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Theoretical Economics Letters, 2020, 10, 334-355

https://www.scirp.org/journal/tel

ISSN Online: 2162-2086

ISSN Print: 2162-2078

DOI:

10.4236/tel.2020.102023 Apr. 23, 2020 334 Theoretical Economics Letters

The Contribution of Maurice Allais to

Contemporary Macroeconomics: From French

Planning to National Accounting

Arnaud Diemer

University of Clermont-Ferrand, Cerdi, Erasme, France

Abstract

If the history of macroeconomics is still largely associated

with John Maynard

Keynes’ masterpiece, T

General

Theory

Employment

Interest

and

Mon

(Keynes, 1936)

, macronomics also includes a branch of economics which has

gained recognition through the use of mathematical models, the notion of gen-

al equilibrium, the development of an empirical basis (applied economics),

and the evaluation of the effects of economic policy. These elements of mac-

roeconomic theory are found in Maurice Allais’ work, mainly his

Théorie

rendement

social

(Allais, 1946) and his

Fondements

comptables

macro

é-

conomie

(Allais, 1954).

In the aftermath of the Second World War, Allais was

able to use a corpus composed of a

theory

—the Walrasian General Equilib-

rium,

doctrine

—competitive planning, an

empirical

basis

—his work on na-

tional accounting and economic policy prescriptions, “la planification à la

française” and monetary dynamics. This work, combined with the develop-

ment of national statistics and national accounting, highlights the French tra-

dition of economic thinking and reminds us, that in the history of economic

thought, the Keynesian precepts took some time to “colonize” the minds of

French economists.

Keywords

Macroeconomics, Money, National Accounting, Planning, State

1. Introduction

In an article published in December 2005 entitled

The

Theory

and

the

Modelling

Macroeconomics

from

yesterday

today

, Michel de Vroey and Pierre Mal-

grange (2005) sought to track the evolution of macroeconomics from its birth

How to cite this paper:

Diemer, A. (2020).

The Contribution of Maurice Allais to Co

tem

porary Macroeconomics: From French

Planning to National Accounting

Theore

ical Economics Letters

, 10,

334-355.

https://doi.org/10.4236/tel.2020.102023

Received:

December 10, 2019

Accepted:

April 20, 2020

Published:

April 23, 2020

20 by author(s) and

Scientific

Research Publishing Inc.

This work is

licensed under the Creative

Commons Attribution International

License (CC BY

4.0).

http://creativecommons

.org/licenses/by/4.

Open Access

A. Diemer

DOI:

10.4236/tel.2020.102023 335 Theoretical Economics Letters

(in the 1930s) to the 21st Century. In their view, the notion of macroeconomics

should cover the following conditions: “

First

modelled

discipline

, i.e.

composed

mathematical

models

Second

pursues

general

equilibrium

ap-

proach

focusing

economy

whole

but

represented

simplified

way

(

small

number

markets

representative

agent

hypothesis

etc

.).

Third

macro-

economics

applied

discipline

with

abstract

models

that

can

measured

empirically

Finally

macroeconomics

has

economic

policy

focus

should

used

forecast

and

evaluate

the

effects

alternative

economic

policies

” (2005:

p. 2).

As a result of this definition, the authors proposed a narrow and linear history

of macroeconomics. For them, it began with Keynes’ masterpiece,

The

General

Theory

Employment

Interest

and

Money

(Keynes, 1936). In his

Introduction

Keynesian

thought

, Hansen (1967) recalls that “the literature of the years 1900

to 1936 saw many efforts, sometimes important, but often radically insufficient,

to break the orthodoxy [Say’s Law] of automatic adjustment”. This theoretical

renewal was formalised through the work of Hicks (1937). The famous IS-LM

model, more or less accepted by Keynes (Hicks, 1973), popularized the main con-

cepts of Keynesian theory. For generations of students and economists, it even

embodied the essence of Keynesian macroeconomics (Hicks, 1967): “

was

un-

doubtedly

the

new

attitude

which

they

knew

would

adopt

that

had

asked

give

account

the

Economic

Journal

...

the

general

theory

soon

appeared

was

asked

because

was

expected

understanding

and

independent

critic

which

the

time

was

not

easy

find

had

little

time

write

this

report

was

not

...

very

satisfied

with

After

only

few

months

had

the

feeling

that

had

again

The

result

was

the

article

“

Mr.

Keynes

and

the

Classics

”

with

the

SILL

diagram

that

has

appeared

many

manuals

since

then

For

many

students

fear

this

Keynes

’

theory

fact

this

diagram

was

only

designed

present

what

thought

was

essential

part

Keynes

’

theory

such

think

defensible;

but

have

never

considered

complete

itself

” (Hicks, 1967, p 25-26). The formalized model made it possible to give

substance to certain proposals concerning economic policy. Tinbergen (1953,

1961) considers that “

the

difficulty

facing

the

economic

policy

adviser

that

the

model

must

not

only

realistic

but

must

also

usable

” (1961: p. 51).

One could continue this story by evoking the criticisms by Friedman (1968),

Lucas (1972), Kydland and Prescott (1977), and so on. From a methodological

point of view, such an approach makes it possible to understand the emergence

of a masterpiece (Keynesian theory has its origins in the Great Depression of

1929 and tries to provide a response to mass unemployment), to understand its

relevance (particularly in terms of its different variants), and to analyse the criti-

cisms made against it. However, at the same time, it excludes all the theoretical

work and formulations that do not fall into this predefined framework. In other

words, defining a family tree of macroeconomics based on Keynesian theory

risks excluding from the study all original or incremental contributions which

A. Diemer

DOI:

10.4236/tel.2020.102023 336 Theoretical Economics Letters

do not correspond to the analysis grid itself. Moreover, to postulate that the his-

tory of macroeconomics starts from Keynes’ general theory is to overestimate its

power of attraction and diffusion. In France, some specific features of the French

model (French planning, economics teaching in law schools) delayed its dis-

semination and even its acceptance.

In terms of the history of ideas, these last two points suggest that we should be

very careful when trying to grasp the major stages in the evolution of macro-

economics. The institutional context and the mixing of ideas play a significant

role. Planning is part of French economic history, particularly after the Second

World War. Studying macroeconomics without reference to this institutional

framework makes it impossible to understand the degree of relevance of econo-

metric models and the scope of economic policy decisions. Similarly, in France

the applied economist is the emblematic figure of economic forecasting institu-

tions (Commissariat au Plan, in France). The Grandes Ecoles (Ecole des Ponts et

Chaussées, Ecole des Mines) are very often places where economics is mathema-

tized and models are formalized. In the French context, major economic issues

cannot be studied without taking this into account, which leads us to introduce

the work of Maurice Allais (Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences), and

more precisely his work with a macroeconomic dimension. Maurice Allais’ work

is part of a macroeconomic perspective, in the sense that it is: 1) contextualized,

it is the era of the applied economist and French planning; 2) associated with

an approach in terms of general equilibrium (global quantities); 3) based on

mathematical models; 4) linked to an observation of facts (applied economics);

5) provides economic policy recommendations.

This paper focuses on presenting Allais’ contributions to macroeconomics.

First, we will present the post-war institutional context, including the choice of

the economic system. We will see that this choice (planning) makes it possible to

understand the particularities of French growth. Firstly, we will show that the

antagonism between planism and the market economy is reflected in the work of

Maurice Allais (1947a, 1949, 1950, 1951) by the evocation of a third way, ”Com-

petitive planning”. Secondly, we will discuss three aspects of Allaisian macro-

economics: the accounting framework (Allais, 1954), the place of money, and the

different aspects of its growth theory.

2. Macroeconomics and the Economic System

In a book entitled “Les voies de la recherche macroéconomique”, Edmond Ma-

linvaud (1991) introduced chapter 2 with the following question: “Is it necessary

to have chosen a doctrine?” (1991: p. 41). Almost 20 years later, Edmond Malin-

vaud (2010) gave an unequivocal answer to this question: “

The

history

eco-

nomic

thought

shows

that

the

theorists

who

contributed

the

development

growth

theories

were

each

based

economic

system

result

the

early

post-war

years

the

choice

this

system

seemed

crucial

the

various

trends

our

profession

” (2010: p. 141). This preamble says a lot about the path that had

A. Diemer

DOI:

10.4236/tel.2020.102023 337 Theoretical Economics Letters

to be taken in the aftermath of the Second World War to build the first macro-

economic models (beginning of national accounting, development of national

statistics, mathematical economics, etc). It also reminds us that from 1946 on-

wards, many countries were involved in a planning process (Shonfield, 1967),

even the most practiced (United Kingdom) in the principles of free enterprise

(Malinvaud, 1950).

2.1. French Planning

France was no exception to this trend (Fontvieille, 1977; Margairaz, 1992). Jean

Fourastié and Jean-Paul Courthéoux (1968) cite three main reasons for imple-

menting the plan in France: 1) the state of deep disorganization the economy

was in (the first plan was a rescue action—there were no savings, the currency

was constantly depreciating, companies could not produce anything without the

help of the state; the notions of reconstruction and key sectors were important);

2) the weakness of the political liberal right-wing parties (three parties—the

Communist Party, the Socialist Party and the M.R.P had all the seats in the

Chamber of Deputies); 3) the intellectual initiative of a man, Jean Monnet, who

was sufficiently well known that the planning project was credible (Fontaine,

1962). It was following a note sent by Jean Monnet to General De Gaulle (4 De-

cember 1945) that France set up a new institution on 3 January 1946. Attached

successively to the Minister of Finance (10 July 1954), then to the Prime Minister

(10 May 1962), the Office of Planning (Commissariat au Plan) was an economic

commission, consisting of only a limited number of high-level officials, fifty

people, under the authority of a Commissioner General.

French planning reflects a transformation of decision-making mechanisms. It

must rely more on optimistic assumptions about long-term prospects for growth

(production and consumption) than on short-term economic fluctuations. Mar-

ket mechanisms are not abandoned; however, a coherent set of measures had to

be put in place, as governments sought to ensure that companies complied with

the schemes outlined. The spirit of modernity of French capitalism thus resided

in the close relations that united industry, banking, finance, and the state (Bleton,

1966). More precisely, it was a deliberate cooperation between officials and the

managers of large companies (Bilbault, 1961; Kuisel, 1984), in the search for a

“concerted economy” where the public and private sectors could coexist

(Bloch-Lainé, 1959; Monnet, 1976). Three periods, and three men, reflect the

success of planning: from the creation of the Plan to the ECSC (1946-1951); the

advent of the Treaty of Rome (1951-1958); Plans III, IV and V (1959-1970). In

what follows, we will only deal with the first two periods (1945 to 1952), which

make it possible to identify Maurice Allais’ contributions to macroeconomics.

2.1.1. From the Office of Planning to the European Coal and Steel

Community (1946-1951)

The first stage is from the creation of the Office of Planning to the creation of

the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC: 1946-1951). Against the back-

A. Diemer

DOI:

10.4236/tel.2020.102023 338 Theoretical Economics Letters

ground of the Marshall Plan and the creation of the OEEC (Organization for

European Economic Cooperation), Jean Monnet’s first plan focused on eco-

nomic growth (objective of 25% in 1951 of the 1929’s production in 1929) and

raising living standards. In this context, the Office of Planning was first and

foremost a place for meetings and information. Decisions were made in com-

mittees (Gournay, 1961). These were roundtables during which people inter-

ested in a subject met and discussed (so that anyone with expertise in a specific

field could be called upon to participate in the debate). Ministries, The Grandes

Ecoles (engineers from Ecole Polytechnique, Ecole des Mines, Ecole des Ponts et

Chaussées), mixed economy companies and public companies such as EDF,

SNCF, and the nationalised coal industry, were involved in the work of the plan

committees at an early stage. In this way, the plan was not imposed on them, it

was an expression of their participation in the French economy’s recovery. At

the same time, the planning officials had an effective means of persuasion and

encouragement (Rissoyre, 1961). Tax measures, direct financial aid, financial

provisions (loans from Caisse des Dépôts et Consignations, Crédit National

(Dupont, 1952), capital market interventions, industrial bonds subject to prior

authorization by the Treasury, etc) were intended to encourage the selected

companies to comply with the orientation and scale of the Plan objectives

(Shonfield, 1967, refers to “Conjuring the Plan”).

2.1.2. From the ECSC to the Treaty of Rome (1951-1958)

Under the authority of Etienne Hirsch (a mining engineer), the 2nd (1954-1957)

and 3rd (1958-1961) Plans were drawn up between the creation of the ECSC and

the creation of the EEC. The 2nd plan differs from the 1st plan by a series of

provisions. Firstly, the plan is expanded from the five key sectors to a larger

number of sectors. This shift from partial to broader planning moved the Plan

from a series of individual programs to an overall plan. During this period, a no-

tion was quickly established for economists: that of balance. The notion of bal-

ance has the advantage of applying to many situations. There is the balance of

employment, the balance of income, the balance of foreign trade. Secondly, there

was the development of information and forecasting techniques. Three major

institutions were created. The first institution was the Financial and Economic

Studies Service (SEEF) (1950). The determination of the balance and the de-

scription of economic activities were made possible by the progress in national

accounting. National accounting, essential for planning, did not exist before

1950 (Sauvy, 1970). With the SEEF, national accounting took off in an unparal-

leled way (Fourquet, 1980) and developed along two axes. Firstly, it was a ques-

tion of developing an instrument intended essentially to draw up economic

budgets (forecasts over one or two years, drawn up by the Committee of Ex-

perts). The next step is to propose an alternative system to international stan-

dardisation (the first version of the OEEC system). In a note published in 1952

entitled “Principles for the establishment of national accounts and an economic

table”, Claude Gruson, who had built up a small team of experts (Terray, 2003),

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