Candy Example
Hypothesis H:
h
1
: 100% cherry
h
2
: 75% cherry + 25% lime
h
3
: 50% cherry + 50% lime
h
4
: 25% cherry + 75% lime
h
5
: 100% lime
Assume prior P (H) = h0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 0.1i
Assume candies are i.i.d. (identically and independently
distributed), i.e., P (d|h) = Π
j
P (d
j
|h)
Suppose first 10 candies all taste lime:
P (d|h
5
) = 1
10
= 1,
P (d|h
3
) = 0.5
10
= 0.00097
P (d|h
1
) = 0
10
= 0
Y. Liu Intro to AI 36 / 55
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