半导体行业深度报告：海外观察系列十一：从艾睿和大联大等分销商，看半导体复苏.pdf

bottom out and rise within 2023.

unique research and tracking value. Upstream electronic device suppliers find it difficult

to economically match the diverse needs of downstream, giving rise to the distributor

mode. From the perspective of supply chain, distributors provide flexibility in circulation,

technical services, and shortfall material searches. We propose a research framework of

"looking at analog from distributors", focusing on revenue and inventory.

and the domestic concentration ratio is likely to improve. In 2021, Arrow, WPG, and

Avnet had the highest revenues, with Arrow's revenue of USD34.477bn, accounting for

Electronics Group, Nanjing Sunlord Electronics Corp, Shenzhen Huaqiang Industry, and

Wuhan P&S Information Tech are important indicators.

changes slightly lagged. Historical data shows that the revenue of distributors is basically

in sync with that of original manufacturers, though profits tend to fluctuate with a slight

lag. Reviewing changes in the stock price of distributors, we found that the price is strongly

correlated with its revenue, which in turn is linked to economic conditions. This further

confirms our view that distributors are a barometer of the industry.

distributor inventories is of great significance. Historically, in 2Q08, 2Q11, and 4Q18,

asset. The AI revolution represented by ChatGPT has driven the demand for computing

power, and the demand for data centers is likely to provide strong support for the next

semiconductor cycle. We expect application improvement to drive up downstream demand

such as IoT & mobile phones, and ultimately the demand for analog chips.

inventory decline, IC factories' inventory decline and downstream demand recovery. We

recommend Shenzhen Kiwi, Shanghai Awinic, and Shanghai Bright Power Semi.