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JP 摩根-美股-交通与物流行业-交通与物流业:夏季会议和管理会议的问题手册-513-33页.pdf
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JP 摩根-美股-交通与物流行业-交通与物流业:夏季会议和管理会议的问题手册-513-33页.pdf
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North America Equity Research
13 May 2019
Transportation & Logistics
Question Book for Summer Conference Season and
Management Meetings
Airfreight and Surface
Transportation
Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA
AC
(1-212) 622-1023
Bloomberg JPMA OSSENBECK <GO>
Lacey-Ann Wisdom
(1-212) 622-9566
lacey-[email protected]
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
See page 31 for analyst certification and important disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the
firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in
making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
We compiled questions for each management team that will be on the road
over the next month during the summer conference circuit. In the
document there are specific questions for individual companies
categorized by topic as well as broader themes relevant for an entire
group; see page 2 for a complete listing of companies covered in this note.
2
North America
Equity Research
13 May 2019
Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA
(1-212) 622-1023
brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com
Table of Contents
Parcel Carriers ..........................................................................3
FedEx (FDX, $202, N) ............................................................................................4
United Parcel Service (UPS, $115, N)......................................................................6
Railroads...................................................................................8
Canadian Pacific (CP, C$338, OW) .........................................................................9
CSX (CSX, $86, OW) ...........................................................................................10
Norfolk Southern (NSC, $227, OW)......................................................................11
Union Pacific (UNP, $186, N)...............................................................................12
Kansas City Southern (KSU, $132, N)...................................................................13
Canadian National (CNR CN, C$119, N)...............................................................14
Genesee & Wyoming (GWR, $88, N)....................................................................15
Truckload Carriers & Brokers................................................16
C.H. Robinson (CHRW, $88, N) ...........................................................................17
Echo Global (ECHO, $27, OW) ............................................................................18
Schneider National (SNDR, $22, N) ......................................................................19
Werner Enterprises (WERN, $34, UW) .................................................................20
Knight-Swift Transportation (KNX, $39, N)..........................................................21
Heartland Express (HTLD, $16, UW)....................................................................22
U.S. Xpress (USX, $9, OW)..................................................................................23
Intermodal ...............................................................................24
J.B. Hunt (JBHT, $118, N) ....................................................................................25
Hub Group (HUBG, $54, N)..................................................................................26
Logistics & LTL.......................................................................27
XPO Logistics (XPO, $72, OW)............................................................................28
Ryder (R, $57, UW) ..............................................................................................30
3
North America
Equity Research
13 May 2019
Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA
(1-212) 622-1023
Parcel Carriers
Key questions and themes for the group
After both carriers rolled out a six day delivery service year-round, at what point
will this move to seven? Is it inevitable in the U.S.?
What are the implications of Amazon moving to one day shipping for Prime
customers? How will the U.S. parcel network respond if shipping speeds and
expectations continue to escalate?
One day shipping on a large scale is generally viewed as a positive for express
carriers, but what happens when shippers start to put more inventory in many
different locations in order to lower transportation costs?
Stop density is notoriously difficult to improve, will the “Amazon Day”
initiative be able to slow down the network and lower shipping costs?
What plans are in place or under consideration to adopt residential access points
like a garage that would help reduce repeat delivery attempts?
Do you foresee a time when there will actually be a delivery charge for a
residential package?
How advanced are shippers in directing consumers to their preferred delivery
option or offering incentives for slower speeds or in-store pickup?
What are the most likely changes to rates or services you expect will come out of
the USPS over the next 3-5 years?
How would the U.S. withdrawal from the UPU affect import and export volumes
from foreign posts as well as the cost of delivering e-commerce?
After the dissolution of the Stamps.com and USPS exclusive agreement, do you
see the potential for any further changes in key partnerships between the USPS
and private carriers?
How have the regional carriers adapted to the continued push for faster delivery
speeds traveling shorter distances? Does this theme benefit a regional model
disproportionately compared to the larger integrators?
Has the industry’s pricing power changed materially over the past three, five and
ten years? What could change it for better or worse in the future?
What are the near and long term strategies for expanding B2B e-commerce?
U.K. e-commerce volume trends have been persistently weak over the last
several months, what is behind this trend?
With Brexit pushed out until October and U.S./China trade tensions escalating
again, what impact do you expect to see on volumes?
Have there been any significant capacity adjustments made to international air
networks in response to the current macro environment?
How much is commercial lift being utilized currently compared to the last year
and where is it expected to trend in the next twelve months?
Is it possible to expand margins in percent terms and grow B2C volumes? Or is
the goal to improve operating profit in dollars?
4
North America
Equity Research
13 May 2019
Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA
(1-212) 622-1023
brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com
FedEx (FDX, $202, N)
Trade and macro
How will the latest escalation in trade tensions and the extension of Brexit affect
international volumes and demand? Has the company implemented any strategic
adjustments relative to recent developments?
K+N recently reported a decline in airfreight and expects 0-1% volume growth in
2019, is that a reasonable assumption? What industries and markets are driving
the slower demand?
Have you seen any negative spillover effects from uncertainty surrounding oil
given continuing sanctions on Iran and Venezuela?
Financials
Mix shift was negative and pronounced across the portfolio with Ground, U.S.
Deferred and International Economy all growing significantly – what were the
underlying causes and is this expected to continue through 2019-2020?
When will capital expenditures begin to significantly moderate considering the
need for aircraft purchases, Express hub expansions, and the TNT integration?
Express
What are the implications of a hard or no-deal Brexit for Express?
What is the operating margin range after multiple re-classifications and TNT?
Have any steps been taken to flex down the fleet as noted last year when the
global economic outlook appeared softer than it does today?
How has Extra Hours been accepted by the launch customers? What are the
incremental margins and potential volume opportunity? Have other customers
joined in the program?
Fuel surcharge tables were adjusted in mid-September 2018 and mid-March
2019, is a six month adjustment period expected to be the standard going
forward? What are the financial implications based on the most recent update?
TNT
What are the key obstacles to completing the TNT integration outside of macro?
What does the roadmap for the integration look like through FY20? What are the
remaining milestones of significance and how much is left to complete?
The integration is continuing into FY21, will this primarily cover back-office and
other support systems? What are the risks that could extend the timeline further?
What is the significance of the ability to inject legacy Express, intra-European
shipments to the TNT European road network? How much volume does this
represent and what are the benefits for avoided cost and improved mix?
Where are the biggest opportunities for share gain within the combined TNT
network?
Could the TNT investment be written down after the integration challenges and
cyber attack?
5
North America
Equity Research
13 May 2019
Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA
(1-212) 622-1023
Ground
How has the rollout of six day shipping progressed relative to expectations? Has
it generated any headwinds to ground margins or volume gains?
What percentage of inbound and outbound loading utilizes some form of
automation? Has this been expanded to non-conveyable products?
Margins are widely expected to improve based on consensus expectations, but
will FedEx be able to address these assumptions when there is no segment level
guidance provided?
When should we expect to hear more about the “transformational” initiatives to
handle large packages and lower the cost to serve residential markets?
How will this business evolve over time to handle lighter weight packages going
shorter distances? Where does the operating leverage come from when a large
component of the cost structure is variable and tied up in the ISP model?
Has there been a roll-out of any new partnerships or initiatives focused on
targeting small to mid-sized shippers?
Freight
Has the looser truckload market negatively affected the LTL business?
Old Dominion recently noted competition on certain lanes and had lost some
volumes, are you seeing something similar? How does this compare to other
periods of decelerating activity?
Is the dual service offering still a competitive advantage?
What technology solutions is FedEx currently applying to its freight network?
What is the latest status on the final mile product offering and pilot program?
Technology
What factors are currently driving electric vehicle adoption?
Does FedEx intend to expand its current partnership with Chanje or venture into
other agreements with electric or hybrid vehicle makers?
Can management provide any updates on their findings from drone-testing post
winning approval from the DOT-Drone Test Program a year ago?
Disruption
What are the specific implications of Amazon’s one day shipping initiative if it is
broadly adopted by other retailers? How can FedEx benefit from this trend and
what changes or investments are needed?
Should recent insourcing trend at Amazon be cause for concern? Has Amazon
insourcing had any effect on FedEx volumes?
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