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JP 摩根-美股-制药行业-美国制药业HC会议手册-1-28页.pdf
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JP 摩根-美股-制药行业-美国制药业HC会议手册-1-28页.pdf
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1
See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
North America Equity Research
January 2020
Pharmaceuticals
Chris Schott, CFA
AC
(1-212) 622-5676
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
2020 US Pharma HC Conference Playbook
Christopher Neyor
(1-212) 622-0334
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Ekaterina Knyazkova
(1-212) 622-9576
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Xiling (Cici) Chen
(1-212) 622-0364
J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
2
Overall Positioning For US Pharma
Major Pharma
We see an ongoing new product cycle translating into an upward bias to our near- and
long-term estimates
Pricing concerns remain a key focus point of discussion on the group but we see
commercial pricing dynamics already well reflected in our/Street estimates and
government reform appears manageable
Admittedly, the 2020 Presidential Election season rhetoric remains a wild card
Our recommendations are skewed towards names with the longest runways for EPS
growth (LLY, MRK) or those trading at a steep discount to peers (BMY)
Favorite ideas: LLY, MRK, BMY
Spec Pharma
We are marginally less bearish on the group relative to 2018/2019 with earnings having
likely bottomed for most names and opioid liabilities increasingly reflected in valuation.
However, with leverage still elevated and growth uninspiring, we still do not see a
compelling reason to broadly own the group.
Favorite ideas: CHRS, MYL. Least favorite names: ENDP, AMRX, MNK, TEVA
Animal Health
Most attractive fundamentals (and highest valuations) in our coverage, but we continue to
see the potential for top- and bottom-line beats for both ZTS and ELAN. Both are
particularly interesting names on any broader market pullback.
Favorite ideas: ZTS, ELAN
3
Key Events/Themes To Watch At The Conference
Major Pharma
On 2020 guidance, as in the past, we expect guidance to be released with 4Q results in late Jan/early Feb vs.
at the conference. That said, we will be looking for any additional 2020 color from PFE, BMY and MRK.
Biz dev priorities remain a key topic of discussion (especially after last year’s BMY/CELG announcement
ahead of the conference). We are expecting fewer mega deals in 2020 vs. 2019 but would not be surprised to
see several tuck-in deal announcements. MRK, LLY most in focus among our large caps regarding biz
dev in 2020
With pricing reform dominating headlines and the 2020 election season approaching, we will be listening for
incremental commentaries on HC reform and overall price dynamics. BMY and LLY shares remain most
sensitive to Medicare/Medicaid policy headlines
Please note: ABBV, LLY, JNJ, MRK and PFE will be doing fireside chats at the conference
Spec Pharma
Key topics include opioid litigation (incremental settlement discussion color), generic pricing (we see
ongoing but more predictable erosion) and biosimilars.
We will also be watching for any pre-announcements. While spec companies have not consistently
preannounced at the conference, we would highlight CHRS and PCRX potential companies that could
comment on 4Q
Most interesting/controversial stories within spec where we’d be watching: MYL, TEVA, and BHC
Animal Health
We see flea/tick dynamics as a key theme in 2020
Also, while not anticipating guidance, watching for 2020 color from both companies (ZTS – topline growth
vs incremental spend, ELAN – topline impact from competition)
4
Major Pharmaceuticals
5
Eli Lilly
Highly Diversified, Top-Tier Growth
We see LLY offering top-tier, diversified growth driven by a combination of healthy core product trends, a
portfolio of new launches, next-generation pipeline assets, as well as a significant margin expansion
opportunity.
We expect LLY’s healthy script trends for its core diabetes portfolio (particularly Trulicity) as well as strong
new launch performance to drive strong top-line growth and forecast ~7% sales CAGR through 2025
We also see a significant margin expansion opportunity for LLY and forecast operating margin of ~31% in
2020 increasing to the high 30s% over time
We see this combination driving ~6-8% top-line growth and mid-teens annual EPS growth through much of the
next decade with several sources of upside to near- and long-term numbers
Further, we see a number of 2020 pipeline catalysts with phase 3 data including tirzepatide (GIP/GLP),
mirikizumab Phase 3 in UC, and Jardiance heart failure trial data in late 2020 as well as Loxo-305 (BTK) data,
potential Verzenio adjuvant readout, sola Alzheimer’s call option (DIAN), & pegilodecakin (IL-10) in NSCLC
Questions for management: Focus on Diabetes, Pipeline
Can you talk about the competitive dynamics and pricing pressures in pharma and the diabetes space more
specifically? What gives you confidence in your low-single-digit pricing erosion guidance and how are you
thinking about pricing as we look forward to the next few years?
On Trulicity, how sustainable is injectable GLP-1 category growth in light of Novo’s Rybelsus launch? Where can
basal vs GLP-1 share go over time? What are you hearing from payers on Rybelsus?
As we think about the ~300 bps operating margin improvement you talked about for 2020 as well as your goal of
mid to high 30's margins over time, what are the key drivers here as we think about SG&A vs. R&D leverage?
What are your latest thoughts on the Alzheimer’s pipeline ahead of the solanezumab DIAN readout? How big of
an opportunity would this study open up for the company?
What are your business development priorities at this point? Any particular therapeutic areas or stage of
development where you are most focused?
Ticker: LLY Rating: OW Mkt Cap: $126bn
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