瑞信-美股-交通运输业-卡车运输业绩：即使估值并非完全合理，股票也很难有所作为-7-37页.pdf
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DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST
CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit
Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware
that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
11 July 2019
Americas/United States
Equity Research
Trucking
Trucker Earnings Reset
DOWNGRADE RATING
Research Analysts
Allison M. Landry
212 325 3716
Samantha Yellen
212 325 7451
Brian Wright
212 538 1855
Tough for Stocks to Work, Even if Valuations
Not Totally Unreasonable
■ Downgrading Truckers on Substantial EPS Risk: With a weakening
demand backdrop; contract TL rates that are turning negative; and
anecdotal evidence that suggests capacity remains relatively loose, we see
fairly meaningful risk to 2H19 and 2020 EPS for the asset based truckers.
We cut numbers by 9% on average, and our 2020 estimates are now ~6%
below the consensus. As such, we are making the following changes to
our trucking ratings (we note that our Neutral rating on KNX is intact):
o Downgrading WERN to Underperform from Neutral
o Downgrading JBHT to Neutral from Outperform
o Downgrading SNDR to Neutral from Outperform
o Downgrading ODFL to Neutral from Outperform
■ We'd Be More Negative if Not for Somewhat Reasonable Valuation:
While the stocks are by no means pricing in a recession, valuation levels
are not unreasonable (even on our significantly lowered 2020 estimates) -
which keeps us from being outright bearish. At the same time, we think a
best case scenario is a balanced TL market - which might limit significant
downside from here, but would also cap a rally in the stocks. In other
words, it will be difficult for the stocks to work from here.
■ Truckload Contract Rates Heading Negative…Prefer KNX vs WERN:
Spot rate comps will get easier in the next few months, but the bigger
concern in our view is that contract rates are turning negative. Although
the carryover impact from a strong 2018 could help to buoy full year 2019
TL rates, it seems clear that full year 2020 rates are set to be down y/y. On
a relative basis, we are less negative on KNX given that it has historically
outperformed WERN in both freight contractions and expansions; stands to
benefit from self-help; and relatively high short interest levels may create a
favorable short-term set up for the stock.
■ Intermodal Rates to Follow; Structural Volume Pressures Emerge:
We expect intermodal rates to follow suit with TL contract rates, noting an
additional headwind on load growth and margins related to the rails'
seeming "reluctance" to lower rates in tandem (as we have historically seen
in response to weaker truck rates). Considering this alongside indications
that large retail customers are seeking to work directly with the rails, we are
increasingly concerned about both JBHT and SNDR's ability to continue to
capture share gains at current profitability levels.
■ LTL - Cyclical Pause in ODFL: Given the clear slowdown in ISM New
Orders; difficult pricing comps in 2H; and the recent outperformance in the
stock, we think it's time to take a breather on ODFL.
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