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文库首页行业研究行业报告瑞信-美股-医疗用品与设备行业-COVID-19医疗技术估值下调：降低与2021年估值-36-32页.pdf

瑞信-美股-医疗用品与设备行业-COVID-19医疗技术估值下调：降低与2021年估值-36-32页.pdf

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瑞信-美股-医疗用品与设备行业-COVID-19医疗技术估值下调：降低与2021年估值-36-32页.pdf

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U.S. Medical Supplies & Devices

COVID-19 Med Tech Estimate Cut:

Reducing 2020 & 2021 Estimates

6 March 2020

Research Analysts

Matt Miksic

212

-325-4381

matt.miksic@credit

-suisse.com

Vik Chopra

212

-325-1749

vik.chopra@credit

-suisse.com

Equity Research Americas

DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit

Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider

this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Matt Miksic

Source: Company, Credit Suisse estimates

Background and Introduction

3/6/2020

Reducing Estimates & Targets Based on Our Analysis and Framework

Given concerns regarding the potential impact on business trends and

valuations in Med Tech and across the broader market, we have put together

a framework for assessing the potential range of effects the spread of the

virus could have on the companies in our universe.

Having evaluated and analyzed the risks and potential range, scope and

duration of these issues on our universe, we believe the potential impact may

vary significantly, based on regional exposures and revenue mix of each

company. Due to the level of volatility driven in part by the rapidly evolving

news flow related to COVID-19, and also by the uncertainty about the range

of the potential impact on sales and earnings, we have opted to publish our

framework as a guide for investors to help assess these risks.

In addition, given our comfort at this point in the middle of the range of our

Blue Sky and Grey Sky scenarios (i.e. our Base Case), we have taken the

additional step of reducing our estimates in accordance with the middle of

these ranges, and make what we view appropriate corresponding adjustments

to our target prices. Please see slides 9 through 11 for a summary of these

changes.

3/6/2020

Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Matt Miksic

Source: Company, Credit Suisse estimates

Why Cut Estimates Now?

3/6/2020

 Stocks Already Discounting Impact of COVID-19, Our Framework

Aims to Put Sharper Point on “What’s Priced In”: While it remains

early in understanding the scope and duration of the COVID-19 impact on

Med Supplies and Devices projections, we believe our analysis provides a

reasonable framework, and our new estimates represent the middle of that

range;

 Management Commentary on China Impact in Q1 Has Been Clear,

and Impact on Q2-Q3 Seems Likely to Be More “When” Than “If” : A

number of management teams in our universe with exposure to China and

APAC have commented on the significant slowdown in procedures,

particularly deferrable surgeries in that region (see slides 26-29). While

there has not been much color on the impact beyond March 31, it seems

highly likely that pressure will continue in China and spread in some form to

other regions, including the US. Our framework takes these risks into

consideration to assess the potential impact on Q2-Q4 and 2021.

3/6/2020

Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Matt Miksic

Source: Company, Credit Suisse estimates

Key Take-Aways From Our Framework Analysis

3/6/2020

 Highest China and APAC Exposure and Deferrable Surgery Mix

Most Affected: The most significant factors driving differences in

projected impact across our universe are regional exposure and sales mix;

– We’ve reduced sales estimates for 2020 in the low-to-mid-single-

digit range for companies with more US-focused businesses, and

higher mix of less-deferrable procedures (e.g. BAX, EW, IART, ORGO);

– We’ve trimmed sales estimates by mid-to-upper single digits for

companies with higher mix of deferrable procedures and greater

exposure to OUS and China (e.g. ALC, BSX, MDT, ZBH);

 Despite Estimated Hit to 2020, We See 2021 Impact as Modest:

Given our expectations that the virus impact is less likely to be structural,

we see 2021 sales as bouncing back with above trend growth rates. Our

Grey Sky scenario assumes virus impact continues into 1Q21, but even in

this scenario, we would expect volumes to stabilize in 1H21.

 Biggest Disconnect: SYK and ZBH Both Sold Off on Ortho

Concerns, But … ZBH’s exposure to deferrable procedures (~90%) is

significantly higher than SYK’s (~50%), by our estimates.

3/6/2020

Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Matt Miksic

Source: Company, Credit Suisse estimates

Easing Uncertainty Should Drive Improving Performance

3/6/2020

 China Risks for Q1 Have Been Widely Discussed by Med Tech

Management Teams, But Full-Year Global Impact Unaddressed: We

expect management teams to provide updated comments on 2020 outlook

either prior to or during Q1 earnings;

 Our Scenario Analysis Provides a Reasonable Framework for Where

Estimates Can Go, In Our View: Our scenarios include a range of

potential impact on sales growth, from a 1.0 – 1.5% reduction in sales in

our Blue Sky scenario, to a 6.0 – 6.5% reduction in our Base Case

scenario, and 13.0 – 14.0% reduction in our Grey Sky scenario;

 Our New Target Prices, Based on Reduced Estimates, Reflect

Compelling Upside: After cutting numbers for 2020 and 2021 and

reducing most target multiples by 0.5x – 1.0x, we see the potential for

improving performance in the weeks and months ahead;

 Regional Risks, End-Markets and Sales Mix Drive our Framework:

Our scenario analysis incorporate regional exposures, potential duration of

COVID-19 impact on volumes, potential for recovering (i.e. “catching- up”

on deferred procedures and revenue mix.

3/6/2020

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