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"高盛-中国-基础材料行业-中国基础材料1月监测：季节性疲软，预期分歧" 该报告主要关注中国基础材料行业的1月监测，涵盖季节性疲软和预期分歧的分析。报告由高盛发布，提供了对中国基础材料行业的独特见解。知识点1：季节性疲软报告指出，基础材料行业在1月份出现季节性疲软，这是由于春节假期的影响。这种疲软趋势在过去几年中都是常见的，但今年的疲软程度较往年为轻。知识点2：预期分歧报告显示，基础材料行业的预期存在分歧，一些生产商对未来需求持乐观态度，而另一些生产商则对需求持悲观态度。这反映了行业中的不确定性和不稳定性。知识点3：订单书趋势报告提供了订单书趋势的分析，显示基本材料和下游产品的订单书趋势存在差异。基本材料的订单书趋势较弱，而下游产品的订单书趋势相对稳定。知识点4：行业分段订单书趋势报告还提供了行业分段订单书趋势的分析，显示汽车、家电、房地产、机械、电力、钢铁、水泥、金属等行业的订单书趋势存在差异。其中，汽车和家电行业的订单书趋势较弱，而房地产和机械行业的订单书趋势相对稳定。知识点5：市场预期报告对市场预期进行了分析，显示基础材料行业的市场预期存在分歧。一些生产商对未来需求持乐观态度，而另一些生产商则对需求持悲观态度。这反映了行业中的不确定性和不稳定性。知识点6：基础材料行业的发展趋势报告对基础材料行业的发展趋势进行了分析，显示行业的发展趋势存在不确定性。一些生产商对未来需求持乐观态度，而另一些生产商则对需求持悲观态度。这反映了行业中的不确定性和不稳定性。知识点7：订单书调查报告提供了订单书调查的结果，显示基础材料和下游产品的订单书趋势存在差异。基本材料的订单书趋势较弱，而下游产品的订单书趋势相对稳定。知识点8：生产商的看法报告对生产商的看法进行了分析，显示生产商对基础材料行业的看法存在分歧。一些生产商对未来需求持乐观态度，而另一些生产商则对需求持悲观态度。这反映了行业中的不确定性和不稳定性。知识点9：基础材料行业的挑战报告对基础材料行业的挑战进行了分析，显示行业面临着季节性疲软、预期分歧、订单书趋势下降等挑战。知识点10：高盛的研究报告报告是高盛的一份研究报告，提供了对中国基础材料行业的独特见解。该报告对基础材料行业的发展趋势、订单书趋势、市场预期等方面进行了分析和讨论。

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rina Chen

+852-2978-2678 | trina.c

hen@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Joy Zhang

+852-2978-6545 | jo

y.x.zhang@gs.com

Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.

Exhibit 1: Channel checks - downstream orderbook trend

15%

an Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

17A - improving MoM

18A - improving MoM

19A - improving MoM

17A - declining MoM

18A - declining MoM

19A - declining MoM

2017*

Data post Aug-2017 based on survey,

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (proprietary survey)

Exhibit 2: Channel checks - orderbook survey by segment - Jan 2019

100%

25%

100%

75%

60%

25%

50%

25%

14%

80%

100%

25%

Auto

Whitegoods Property Machinery Power Steel Cement Metals fab Coal Paper

nuary - 2018 (net)

nuary - 2019 (net)

Net orderbook trend in % of respondants

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (proprietary survey)

21 January 2019 | 8:26PM HKT

China Basic Materials Monitor

January 2019: Seasonal weakness, divided expectations

Seasonal weakness, divided expectations

Our orderbook sur

vey in January suggests end demand

remains weak, yet the sequential trend indicates no further

deterioration beyond seasonality at present. While it is still

too early to get concrete indications, selected producers in

cement, steel, and machinery are seeing more local

infrastructure project approvals on the ground, and most

expect normal seasonal demand pickups in the coming

construction season. On the other hand, the metals demand

outlook remains depressed for the coming months, as

reﬂected in the earlier take off and longer CNY break

planned at downstream fabricators.

Channel checks

ased on our proprietary survey, feedback from producers

as of mid-January 2019 suggests orderbooks were stable for

downstream users but weakened for basic materials.

Inventory is mostly at or below normal levels for basic

materials and most ﬁnished products.

Goldman Sac

hs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the ﬁrm may

have a conﬂict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their

investment decision. For Reg AC certiﬁcation and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html

Analy

sts employed by non-US afﬁliates are not registered/qualiﬁed as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S.

China basic materials – coverage summary

Prices in this report are as of January 18, 2019, unless stated otherwise. “Target” in Exhibits 3, 37, 44, 51, 64 and 71 refers

to 12-month target prices.

Exhibit 3: China basic materials – coverage summary

Company Ticker Price Target Rating Upside Mkt cap EPS (ccy/sh) PE PB ROE EV/EBITDA FCF yield Div yield Perf.

Price as of 18-Jan-2019 Tccy Tccy % US$ bn 18E 19E 20E 18E 19E 20E 18E 19E 20E 18E 19E 20E 18E 19E 20E 18E 19E 20E 18E 19E 20E YTD

Angang-H 0347.HK 5.75 8.5 Buy* 48% 5.30 0.975 0.704 0.665 5.1 7.0 7.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 13% 9% 8% 3.9 4.4 4.3 16% 17% 17% 5.9% 4.3% 4.0% 6%

Angang-A 000898.SZ 5.30 8.5 Buy 60% 5.66 0.975 0.704 0.665 5.4 7.5 8.0 0.7 0.7 0.6 13% 9% 8% 4.1 4.7 4.5 15% 16% 16% 5.5% 4.0% 3.8% 6%

Baosteel 600019.SS 6.93 10.0 Buy 44% 22.80 0.921 0.836 0.805 7.5 8.3 8.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 12% 10% 10% 4.5 4.8 4.6 18% 11% 11% 6.9% 6.3% 6.1% 7%

Maanshan-H 0323.HK 3.67 3.3 Neutral -10% 3.60 0.809 0.365 0.322 3.9 8.7 9.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 24% 10% 8% 2.8 3.8 3.8 20% 11% 12% 7.7% 3.5% 3.0% 6%

Maanshan-A 600808.SS 3.64 3.5 Neutral -4% 4.14 0.809 0.365 0.322 4.5 10.0 11.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 24% 10% 8% 3.0 4.2 4.2 18% 10% 11% 6.7% 3.0% 2.7% 5%

Chinacoal-H 1898.HK 3.29 5.1 Buy 55% 5.56 0.405 0.452 0.457 7.0 6.3 6.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 6% 6% 6% 6.6 6.3 6.0 2% 6% 17% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0% 7%

Chinacoal-A 601898.SS 4.84 6.0 Neutral 24% 9.48 0.405 0.452 0.457 11.9 10.7 10.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 6% 6% 6% 8.0 7.6 7.2 1% 4% 12% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 4%

Yanzhou-H 1171.HK 7.11 9.3 Buy 31% 4.45 1.796 1.769 1.192 3.4 3.5 5.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 17% 15% 10% 4.3 4.4 5.7 11% 12% 8% 9.4% 9.2% 6.2% 13%

Yanzhou-A 600188.SS 9.12 11.5 Buy 26% 6.62 1.796 1.769 1.192 5.1 5.2 7.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 17% 15% 10% 4.9 5.0 6.5 9% 10% 7% 6.3% 6.2% 4.2% 4%

Conch-H 0914.HK 39.55 34.0 Sell -14% 26.72 5.695 2.859 2.925 6.0 11.9 11.7 1.6 1.6 1.4 30% 13% 13% 3.4 6.2 7.5 13% 7% 6% 6.9% 3.5% 3.5% 4%

Conch-A 600585.SS 31.05 32.0 Neutral 3% 24.31 5.695 2.859 2.925 5.5 10.9 10.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 30% 13% 13% 3.1 5.6 6.8 14% 8% 7% 7.6% 3.8% 3.9% 6%

BBMG-H 2009.HK 2.54 2.8 Neutral 10% 3.46 0.445 0.302 0.280 4.9 7.3 7.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 9% 6% 5% 7.6 8.7 8.7 14% 19% 16% 3.7% 2.5% 2.3% 3%

BBMG-A 601992.SS 3.58 3.4 Neutral -5% 5.65 0.445 0.302 0.280 8.0 11.9 12.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 9% 6% 5% 8.6 9.9 9.9 10% 15% 12% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 2%

CNBM 3323.HK 5.80 6.9 Neutral 19% 6.24 1.335 0.639 0.623 3.8 7.8 8.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 20% 8% 7% 6.1 8.3 8.5 -5% -7% 0% 7.0% 3.3% 3.3% 8%

CRC 1313.HK 7.28 6.0 Sell -18% 6.48 1.280 0.607 0.614 5.7 12.0 11.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 24% 10% 10% 3.5 6.4 6.0 21% 9% 12% 8.6% 4.1% 4.1% 3%

WCC 2233.HK 1.09 1.2 Neutral 10% 0.75 0.273 0.139 0.136 3.4 6.8 6.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 20% 9% 9% 2.3 3.2 2.7 26% 22% 24% 2.8% 8.7% 5.9% 3%

Chalco-H 2600.HK 2.84 3.2 Neutral 13% 6.16 0.075 -0.048 0.144 32.6 n.a. 17.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 3% -2% 5% 9.6 20.4 11.4 2% -2% 3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13%

Chalco-A 601600.SS 3.68 3.6 Neutral -2% 9.25 0.075 -0.048 0.144 49.0 n.a. 25.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 3% -2% 5% 11.2 23.7 13.2 2% -2% 2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4%

Hongqiao 1378.HK 5.07 5.1 Neutral 1% 5.67 0.469 0.425 0.566 9.3 10.3 7.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 7% 6% 8% 4.5 4.6 3.8 31% 21% 24% 2.8% 2.6% 3.4% 14%

JXC-H 0358.HK 9.46 10.0 Neutral 6% 4.18 0.747 0.581 0.489 10.9 14.0 16.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 5% 4% 3% 5.1 6.0 6.1 0% -5% 5% 3.8% 3.0% 2.5% 3%

JXC-A 600362.SS 13.61 10.6 Sell -22% 6.96 0.747 0.581 0.489 18.2 23.4 27.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 5% 4% 3% 8.0 9.2 9.3 0% -3% 3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 3%

MMG 1208.HK 3.56 5.8 Buy 63% 3.63 0.035 0.061 0.068 13.1 7.5 6.6 2.4 1.8 1.4 20% 28% 24% 6.5 5.2 4.5 17% 20% 20% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6%

Chinamoly-H 3993.HK 3.04 3.7 Neutral 22% 8.37 0.253 0.220 0.226 10.4 11.9 11.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 14% 11% 11% 4.5 4.2 3.9 13% 14% 13% 5.8% 5.0% 5.2% 6%

Chinamoly-A 603993.SS 3.92 5.6 Neutral 43% 12.51 0.253 0.220 0.226 15.5 17.8 17.4 2.0 1.9 1.9 14% 11% 11% 6.5 6.2 6.0 9% 10% 9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.5% 4%

Zijin-H 2899.HK 2.74 3.8 Buy 39% 8.05 0.182 0.186 0.198 13.0 12.7 11.9 1.5 1.4 1.3 12% 11% 11% 6.0 5.5 6.2 10% 8% 8% 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% -8%

Zijin-A 601899.SS 3.03 4.8 Buy 58% 10.31 0.182 0.186 0.198 16.6 16.3 15.3 1.9 1.8 1.7 12% 11% 11% 7.3 6.7 7.4 8% 7% 7% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% -9%

Zhaojin 1818.HK 7.52 4.7 Sell -38% 2.97 0.114 0.080 0.131 56.8 81.0 49.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 3% 2% 3% 18.8 20.5 16.7 -3% -3% -3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% -5%

Lee&Man 2314.HK 6.75 7.5 Neutral 11% 3.89 1.146 0.831 0.824 5.9 8.1 8.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 22% 14% 13% 5.6 6.9 6.5 5% 9% 13% 5.6% 4.1% 4.0% 2%

NDPaper 2689.HK 7.68 6.3 Sell -18% 4.57 1.000 0.570 0.459 6.6 11.6 14.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 13% 7% 5% 6.8 9.3 9.5 -5% 4% 10% 4.5% 2.6% 2.1% 6%

Chenming-H 1812.HK 4.64 3.9 Sell -16% 1.15 1.114 0.487 0.387 3.6 8.2 10.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 8% 3% 2% 7.4 8.6 8.8 4% -11% -3% 9.8% 4.3% 3.4% 4%

Chenming-A 000488.SZ 5.95 5.1 Sell -14% 1.15 1.114 0.487 0.387 5.3 12.2 15.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 8% 3% 2% 7.9 9.2 9.4 3% -8% -2% 6.6% 2.9% 2.3% 6%

Shanying 600567.SS 3.31 3.3 Neutral 0% 2.23 0.598 0.300 0.245 5.5 11.0 13.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 24% 11% 8% 6.6 8.8 9.8 -1% 4% 5% 5.4% 2.7% 2.2% 6%

Sunpaper 002078.SZ 6.07 6.2 Neutral 2% 2.32 0.819 0.534 0.464 7.4 11.4 13.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 19% 11% 9% 4.8 6.1 6.0 -1% 0% 11% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 6%

Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Note: * denotes stock is on our regional Conviction List. Target prices are based on a 12-month timeframe.

21 January 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Basic Materials Monitor

China Basic Materials Monitor (January 2019): Seasonal weakness, divided expectations

Our monthly China Basic Materials Monitor incorporates our proprietary survey of over 50 industry contacts to track: 1)

forward orderbook trends; and 2) inventory levels at producers and end-users. The survey includes aggregated comments

from producers and manufacturers in downstream sectors such as auto, appliance, machinery and property developers as

well as steel mills, cement producers, metal fabricators, container board producers and box makers, and industry

associations.

Our orderbook survey in January suggests end demand remains weak, yet the sequential trend indicates no further

deterioration beyond seasonality at present. While it is still too early to get concrete indications, selected producers in

cement, steel, and machinery are seeing more local infrastructure projects approvals on the ground, and most expect normal

seasonal demand pickups in the coming construction season. On the other hand, the metals demand outlook remains

depressed for the coming months, as reﬂected in the earlier take off and longer CNY break planned at downstream

fabricators.

Steel remains our most preferred sector, followed by coal, both of which are more attractive in terms of the equity

risk/reward proﬁle within our coverage, followed by cement, aluminum, based on the industry supply/demand outlook.

Among the Hong Kong listed names, our top picks are Angang-H (on CL) and Yanzhou-H (Buy), based on the upside to our

target prices, risk adjusted. We are most cautious on Chinese paper, and have Sell ratings on ND Paper and Chenming-A and

Chenming-H. Among A-share listed names, our top pick is Baosteel (Buy), followed by Yanzhou-A (Buy) based on

risk-adjusted upside to our target prices.

On a relative basis, we like Angang-H due to its higher earnings visibility, combined with our preference for ﬂat products

(Angang‘s main product). We like Baosteel due to its higher earnings visibility, strong cash ﬂow generation, and higher

dividend payout.

Channel checks – forward orderbook trend

Feedback from producers as of mid-January 2019 suggests that orderbooks were stable for end-demand and basic materials

weakened month on month.

Realised sales trends in December 2018 were mostly inline with producers’ expectations n

The month-on-month end-user forward orderbook trend is stable, with 8% of respondents expecting a month-on-month n

improvement in January versus 8% in December, and 15% of respondents expect a month-on-month decline in January

versus 17% December. The trend is mostly inline with past seasonality.

21 January 2019

Goldman Sachs

China Basic Materials Monitor

Our orderbook survey in

January suggest end demand

remains weak, yet the

sequential trend indicates no

further deterioration beyond

seasonality at present

Feedback from producers as of

mid-January 2019 suggests that

orderbooks were stable for

end-demand and weakened for

basic materials month on

month.

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