054可用于光伏出力预测，引入气象影响因子，效果良好.zip

close all clear,clc %% 加载数据 load fengsu5min; %用间隔15min的48个点（即12个小时）的数据直接预测间隔15min的16个点 load gonglv5min; % load wendu5min; load fengxiang5min; for i=1:8929 zhengxuan(i)=sin(fengxiang5min(i)*pi/180); end b=fengsu5min; c=gonglv5min; f=zhengxuan; % d=wendu5min; % e=fengxiang5min; mi1=min(b); ma1=max(b); b=(b-mi1)/(ma1-mi1); mi2=min(c); ma2=max(c); c=(c-mi2)/(ma2-mi2); mi5=min(f); ma5=max(f); f=(f-mi5)/(ma5-mi5); % mi3=min(d); % ma3=max(d); % d=(d-mi3)/(ma3-mi3); % mi4=min(e); % ma4=max(e); % e=(e-mi4)/(ma1-mi4); for i=1:8900 p(i,:)=[b(i),b(i+1),b(i+2),b(i+3),f(i),f(i+1),f(i+2),f(i+3)]; % ,b(i+7),b(i+8),b(i+9),b(i+10),b(i+11),b(i+12),b(i+13),b(i+14),b(i+15) % ,f(i),f(i+1),f(i+2),f(i+3),f(i+4),f(i+5) % ,d(i),d(i+1),d(i+2),d(i+3),d(i+4),e(i),e(i+1),e(i+2),e(i+3),e(i+4) % ,b(i+16),b(i+17),c(i),c(i+1),c(i+2),c(i+3),c(i+4),c(i+5) end for i=4:8912 a(i,:)=[c(i)]; end for k=1:48 p_train=p(1:2876+k,:); t_train=a(4:2879+k,:); p_test=p(2877+k,:); t_test=a(2880+k,:); p_train=p_train'; t_train=t_train'; p_test=p_test'; t_test=t_test'; % nn=[31 2]; % for i=1:2 threshold=[0 1;0 1;0 1;0 1;0 1;0 1;0 1;0 1]; net=newelm(threshold,[17,1],{'tansig','purelin'}); net.trainParam.epochs=1000; net.trainParam.show=20; net=init(net); net=train(net,p_train,t_train); y=sim(net,p_test); y1=y*(ma2-mi2)+mi2; y2(k)=y1; t_test1=t_test*(ma2-mi2)+mi2; t_test2(k)=t_test1; error(k)=t_test2(k)-y2(k); end % end plot(y2,':k') hold on plot(t_test2,'k') legend('预测值','实际值') % plot(error,'-ro','linewidth',2); % hold on; % mse(error); % fprintf('error= %f\n', error); % plot(y1,':k') % hold on; % plot(t_test1,'k') % error; rate1=(sum((error./1500).^2)/48)^(1/2) rate2=(sum((error.^2).^(1/2)))/48/1500 y3=mean(y2); t_test3=mean(t_test2); for k=1:48 error1(k)=y2(k)-y3; error2(k)=t_test2(k)-t_test3; end rate3=sum(error1.*error2) rate4=(sum(error1.^2)*sum(error2.^2))^(1/2) rate5=rate3/rate4 % bk=0; % for i=1:16 % if error(i)/1600<=0.15 % bk(i)=1; % else % bk(i)=0; % end % end % rate2(k)=sum(bk)/16 % ans(error) % for i=1:16 % f(i)=e(i)/t_test(i); % end % sum(f(i))/16