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了解小企业健康的窗口(英).pdf
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2022-06-30
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了解小企业健康的窗口(英).pdf
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Page 2 | Q1 2022
US economy faces new challenges,
but will persevere
Executive summary
Experian begins a new chapter with the release of the Q1 2022 Main Street Report through our collaboration with the
leading economists at Oxford Economics. During Q1, small businesses kept average commercial loan balances healthy
and stable. At the same time, moderate delinquency inched up but remained low overall as business and consumer
travel returned to form, oering major tourist destinations a boost.
Q1 2022 | Page 3
Macroeconomic Overview
The US economy contracted in Q1 for the first time since the pandemic-driven recession ended, but the domestic
economy showed resilience in the face of Omicron, lingering supply constraints, and high inflation. Looking ahead,
intensifying headwinds from aggressive Fed tightening and tighter financial conditions will slow activity this year
without stalling it. Business spending and hiring will stay buoyant as companies learn to live with Covid. Consumers’
tolerance of high inflation will be tested, but robust wage growth and ample excess savings should support an increase
in outlays. The economy is expected to grow a healthy 2.5 percent and create more than 4 million jobs in 2022. However,
risks to the economic outlook are tilted to the downside and we see a greater risk of a harder landing in 2023 when
growth cools to around 2 percent.
US business sector
Business investment growth will moderate in 2022, in line with cooler demand prospects. But the need to expand
productive capacity and increase inventories will support solid growth above 5 percent in 2022. The war in Ukraine
and Covid-related lockdowns in China have added pressure to already highly-strained supply chains and bottlenecks
won’t ease anytime soon. This will remain a key challenge for the business sector and suggests that the US economy’s
productive capacity will be challenged.
Businesses are still fairly confident despite this challenging backdrop, according to the latest Small Business Credit
Sentiment (SBCS) Survey. Installment lending maintained steady momentum and approached its pre-Covid peak, while
delinquencies inched up but remained low overall. There was more stress in commercial card lending, but lenders
didn’t adopt a recessionary stance. There were some findings, however, that suggest vigilance is warranted – namely a
minor uptick in delinquencies in the wake of higher inflation, and businesses, mainly in the West, revealing an exposure
to supply chain risk.
US consumer sector
Consumers — the bedrock of the US economy accounting for about two-thirds of GDP — are facing hard choices as
surging costs for staple goods and shelter pressure their budgets and lead them to pare back on some purchases and
dip into their savings. But robust labor income growth, record levels of household wealth, and ample excess savings
worth more than 10 percent of GDP mean that consumer spending should remain well-supported. The results of
the latest SBCS survey corroborate these findings, with delinquencies and forbearance participation low and credit
origination remaining elevated. Further, lenders’ posture doesn’t suggest fears of an imminent consumer retrenchment.
Covid fears have taken a backseat to elevated inflation and severe geopolitical tensions, but the virus remains a
downside risk for the economy. The wave of Omicron subvariant infections requires close monitoring as it could lead to
renewed virus fear and dampen services activity, namely in the leisure and hospitality industry.
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