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unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》
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2022-11-28
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unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声音:评估五年来亲西方的秘密影响认知行动》unheard-voice-《听不到的声
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Contents
Contents
1 Executive Summary 2
2 Methodology & Overview 3
2.1 Audience . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
2.2 Major Groupings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.3 Posting Patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3 Central Asia 10
3.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
3.2 TTPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3.3 Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4 Iran 26
4.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.2 TTPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
4.3 Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
5 Afghanistan 38
5.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
5.2 TTPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
5.3 Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
6 Middle East 44
6.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.2 TTPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
6.3 Narratives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
1
1 Executive Summary
In July and August 2022, Twitter and Meta removed two overlapping sets of
accounts for violating their platforms’ terms of service. Twitter said the accounts
fell foul of its policies on “platform manipulation and spam,” while Meta said the
assets on its platforms engaged in “coordinated inauthentic behavior.” After
taking down the assets, both platforms provided portions of the activity to
Graphika and the Stanford Internet Observatory (SIO) for further analysis.
Our joint investigation found an interconnected web of accounts on Twitter,
Facebook, Instagram, and ve other social media platforms that used deceptive
tactics to promote pro-Western narratives in the Middle East and Central Asia.
The platforms’ datasets appear to cover a series of covert campaigns over a
period of almost ve years rather than one homogeneous operation.
These campaigns consistently advanced narratives promoting the interests of
the United States and its allies while opposing countries including Russia, China,
and Iran. The accounts heavily criticized Russia in particular for the deaths of
innocent civilians and other atrocities its soldiers committed in pursuit of the
Kremlin’s “imperial ambitions” following its invasion of Ukraine in February this
year. To promote this and other narratives, the accounts sometimes shared news
articles from U.S. government-funded media outlets, such as Voice of America
and Radio Free Europe, and links to websites sponsored by the U.S. military. A
portion of the activity also promoted anti-extremism messaging.
As with previous disclosures, Twitter and Meta did not share the technical details
of their investigations. Additionally, neither company has publicly attributed the
activity to any entity or organization: Twitter listed the activity’s “presumptive
countries of origin” as the U.S. and Great Britain, while Meta said the “country of
origin” was the U.S. The ndings in this report are based on our own open-source
investigation and analysis of the two datasets shared by the platforms.
The Twitter dataset provided to Graphika and SIO covered 299,566 tweets
by 146 accounts between March 2012 and February 2022.
1
These accounts
divide into two behaviorally distinct activity sets. The rst was linked to an overt
U.S. government messaging campaign called the Trans-Regional Web Initiative,
which has been extensively documented in academic studies, media reports, and
federal contracting records. The second comprises a series of covert campaigns of
unclear origin. These covert campaigns were also represented in the Meta dataset
of 39 Facebook proles, 16 pages, two groups, and 26 Instagram accounts active
from 2017 to July 2022.
For this report, we focused our analysis on the exclusively covert activity to better
understand how different actors use inauthentic practices to conduct online
influence operations (IO). We did note, however, some low-level open-source
connections between the overt and covert activity in the combined Twitter and
1
On Aug. 23, shortly before the publication of this report, Twitter increased the size of its dataset
to include an additional 24 accounts and 103,385 tweets. The updated disclosure statement
said the activity took place between March 2012 and August 2022.
2
Meta data. These consisted of limited cases of content sharing and one Twitter
account that posed as an individual in Iraq but has previously claimed to operate
on behalf of the U.S. military. Without supporting technical indicators, we are
unable to assess further the nature of the relationship between the two activity
sets.
We believe this activity represents the most extensive case of covert pro-Western
IO on social media to be reviewed and analyzed by open-source researchers to
date. With few exceptions, the study of modern IO has overwhelmingly focused
on activity linked to authoritarian regimes in countries such as Russia, China, and
Iran, with recent growth in research on the integral role played by private entities.
This report illustrates the wider range of actors engaged in active operations to
influence online audiences.
At the same time, Twitter and Meta’s data reveals the limited range of tactics IO
actors employ; the covert campaigns detailed in this report are notable for how
similar they are to previous operations we have studied. The assets identied
by Twitter and Meta created fake personas with GAN-generated faces, posed as
independent media outlets, leveraged memes and short-form videos, attempted
to start hashtag campaigns, and launched online petitions: all tactics observed
in past operations by other actors.
Importantly, the data also shows the limitations of using inauthentic tactics to
generate engagement and build influence online. The vast majority of posts and
tweets we reviewed received no more than a handful of likes or retweets, and
only 19% of the covert assets we identied had more than 1,000 followers. The
average tweet received 0.49 likes and 0.02 retweets. Tellingly, the two most-
followed assets in the data provided by Twitter were overt accounts that publicly
declared a connection to the U.S. military.
This report is non-exhaustive and beneted from previous studies by the
academic and open-source research communities. We hope our ndings can
contribute to a better-informed understanding of online influence operations, the
types of actors that conduct them, and the limitations of relying on inauthentic
tactics.
2 Methodology & Overview
The decision to focus on the exclusively covert activity represented in two
datasets drawn from separate takedowns by Twitter and Meta posed certain
methodological challenges. Accordingly, we employed the following practices to
build a subset of assets for further analysis.
•
Firstly, we conducted a qualitative review of content samples, metadata,
and the prole information associated with each account to determine if
an asset should be classied as overt or covert. We conducted additional
open-source investigation to determine asset classications when required.
•
We then built a social media network map of the covert Twitter accounts’
3
2.1 Audience
followers. This helped us understand the collective audience these assets
built and each asset’s relative influence and community. The resulting
network map revealed three major groups reflecting specic regions and
nations, including Iran, Arabic-speaking Middle East, and Afghanistan.
•
We used these network groupings as a foundation to review further the
covert Twitter and Meta assets and assign labels corresponding to their
audience. This included a qualitative review of asset behavior, such as the
fake personas they employed online, and a quantitative content analysis of
the assets’ most-used hashtags, key terms, and web domains.
•
This second review resulted in four labeled asset groups, each of which
appeared to encompass a contained campaign targeting audiences in one
country or geographic region. The activity sets related to Central Asia, Iran,
and Afghanistan were each distinct enough to merit their own labels. We
combined four less distinct Arabic-language clusters related to Iraq, Syria,
Lebanon, and Yemen as one group labeled “Middle East.”
•
Finally, we analyzed the assets in each group individually and collectively
to identify the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) they employed
to conduct their campaigns and the narratives they promoted.
2.1 Audience
The below network map (Figure 1 on the following page) shows the communities
in which these covert Twitter assets achieved a degree of influence, thus providing
a picture of the international audiences that engaged with the campaigns. The
major groupings in the map reflect three nations and regions: Iran, Afghanistan,
and an Arabic-speaking Middle East group comprising Iraqi and Saudi subgroups,
some of which contain a few accounts associated with Syria, Kuwait, and Yemen.
In addition to these major groupings, there were smaller community clusters in
the network containing mixed international accounts focused loosely on a variety
of international gures and organizations. We also encountered an unclustered
set of accounts with insufcient data for categorization.
Although we identied a Central Asia-focused campaign based on a review of
the assets’ activity, the map lacks a Central Asia community. The community’s
absence is likely due to the reportedly limited use of Twitter in Central Asian
countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, where
Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Telegram are considerably more popular.
Accordingly, Twitter assets in the Central Asia group generated signicantly less
engagement than their counterparts on Facebook and Instagram.
For each of the covert Twitter accounts we identied, we calculated its “follower
footprint” in each community cluster, dened as the proportion of accounts in the
community cluster that followed it. There was a typical long-tail distribution in
the follower footprints, with a few influential accounts followed by a descending
list of accounts with progressively fewer followers. The distribution also featured
a large set of assets (about 20% of all the suspended covert Twitter assets) with
4
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