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基于决策树的企业投资策划方案决策分析.doc
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基于决策树的企业投资策划方案决策分析.doc
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基于决策树的企业投资方案决策分析
摘要:随着信息化水平的提高,人们对决策的科学性的要求程度越来越
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/86046124/bg2.jpg)
高,以往的靠决策者个人意志左右的决策差不多不能适应复杂多变的决
策环境了,本文依据投资决策的部分流程,对企业投资决策选择、投资
方案选择进行了研究。全文从 A 企业的投资案例动身,对企业投资方案
的决策进行了分析,建立了以 excel、决策树、水晶球为依托的投资决
策模型,解决了企业在面临多个层次、多种方案决策问题时的决策问题,
以及以此为依据进行的概率分步模拟的决策问题。
同时,在目前市场竞争激烈、投资成本不断攀升的情况下,如何正
确选取投资的方案也受到越来越多的企业的关注。本文针对目前企业投
资规划时期出现的盲目确定方案的现状,对投资的决策和方案的选择进
行了研究,并通过建立基于决策树的数学模型对这种选择进行“量化”,
希望能够有效地降低决策过程中的主观随意性。
本文要紧完成了以下几项工作:
(1) 明确了企业投资决策的概念,分析了决策分析及决策树的理论基
础,解析了在进行投资决策时的所面临的风险,以及决策树和水晶球模
拟的差不多原理和建模步骤。通过对企业投资方案选择的分析,规划出
了各个方案的风险图。
(2) 以企业投资决策分析为主线,结合投资案例,建立了基于决策
树的多层次模型和
基于水晶球模拟的预测模型。
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/86046124/bg3.jpg)
(3) 本文运用理论联系实际的方法对上述内容进行了探讨和研究,
为不断地改进
完善我国现时期企业投资决策方法提出了可行的方法和建议。
关键词:决策分析;决策树;风险;模拟
Decision Analysis of the enterprise’s investment Based on
Decision Tree Model
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/86046124/bg4.jpg)
Abstract : With the improvement of informatization level,
people’s scientific demands on the decision making are more
and more high, in the past, the individual will by
policymakers around by decision can not adapt to the complex
and changeable decision environment already, based on the part
process, investment decision of enterprise investment choices,
investment scheme selection is studied. From A corporate
investments case, to analysis the risk, the paper builds rely
on excel, decision-making tree, crystal balls, building the
investment decision making model, solved in the face of
multiple levels and enterprises of the decision making problem
decision-making problem and how it can be simulated problems’
probability.
Meanwhile, in the current market competition is intense,
investment costs rising cases, how to correctly select
investment project is also receiving more and more attention
from enterprises. In view of present enterprise investment
planning stages of the blind sure scheme situation, investment
decisions and options are studied, and by establishing the
![](https://csdnimg.cn/release/download_crawler_static/86046124/bg5.jpg)
mathematical model based on the decision tree for this choice,
hope to the quantization effectively reduce the decision
process of subjective freedom.
This article mainly completed a few job below:
(1) Clear the enterprise investment decisions, analyzes
the concept of decision analysis and decision tree, analyzes
the theoretical basis of the investment decisions of the
risks they might face, then analyzes decision tree and
crystal ball simulation of basic principle and modeling steps.
Based on the analysis of the enterprise investment scheme
selection and planning out the risk map of each scheme
figure.
(2) To enterprise investment decision analysis, combining
the investment case, build the multi-level model based on
decision tree and forecast model. based on crystal ball
simulated.
(3) This paper uses the theory with the practice of the
above content method is discussed and studied, which
constantly improving and perfecting our country present stage
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