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Chief Economists Centre for the New Economy and Society.pdf
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Chief Economists Centre for the New Economy and Society.pdf
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Chief Economists
Outlook
Centre for the New Economy and Society
November 2021
2
Chief Economists Outlook
Chief Economists Outlook
November 2021
This quarterly briefing builds on the latest
policy research as well as consultations and
surveys with leading Chief Economists from
both the public and private sectors, organized
by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the
New Economy and Society.
It aims to summarize the emerging contours
of the current economic environment and
identify priorities for further action by policy-
makers and business leaders in response to
the global economic crisis triggered by the
COVID-19 pandemic.
3
Chief Economists Outlook
Contents
1. Monitoring fragilities ______________________________________ 4
Bankruptcies ___________________________________________ 5
Inflation ________________________________________________ 6
Global financial market risks _______________________________ 8
2. Disentangling disruption from trends: the outlook for prices,
wages and globalization __________________________________ 9
The outlook for prices ____________________________________ 9
The outlook for wages ___________________________________ 10
The outlook for global economic integration ________________ 11
3. The outlook for policy ___________________________________ 13
Managing inflation ______________________________________ 13
Global coordination _____________________________________ 14
Reflections on policy lessons from 2021 ___________________ 17
References _______________________________________________ 18
Contributors ______________________________________________ 20
Cover: UNSPLASH/Amy Shamblen
4
Chief Economists Outlook
1. Monitoring fragilities
As we publish the November Chief
Economists Outlook, COVID-19 is
resurging in some parts of the world, the
global economy still finds itself in major
disequilibrium and the costs of fighting
climate change are starting to come
into view.
While a one-size-fits-all approach to
fiscal and monetary policy was optimal
across economies in the early stages of
the pandemic, the ensuing disruption
has evolved in such disparate ways
across global markets and economies
that national-level policy tools can no
longer address the current challenges
in homogeneous ways. Instead, policy-
makers are faced with complex domestic
and international trade-offs in their
policy choices, with one exception:
accelerating vaccinations.
The deepest fault line has emerged between
economies with vaccine access and fiscal
support and those without. Limited vaccine
access is still forcing prolonged lockdowns
and deepening the health toll in some parts
of the world, while lack of fiscal resources
is exacerbating economic and social scars
from bankruptcies and unemployment.
Workers and businesses in economies
with large informal sectors have been
1 UNDP, data as of 6 October 2021.
2 World Economic Forum, 2021.
3 IMF, 2021; OECD, 2021a.
particularly hard hit. Almost one year after
vaccination campaigns began, only 3.7%
of the population in low-income countries
have received at least one dose versus 61%
of the population in high-income countries.
1
Until the pandemic has been conquered
everywhere, there continue to be major risks
from the virus trajectory and therefore the
global economic recovery for all.
On account of such a new, more
aggressive variant that spread rapidly
across the world, growth forecasts had
to be revised downwards in the latest
projections. The distribution of projections
by Chief Economist Survey respondents
has also shifted downward since the June
edition and uncertainty has increased.
2
The IMF predicts 5.9% global growth for
this year, down from 6% (with some major
downward adjustments for individual
countries); the OECD revised its 2021
forecasts down to 5.7% in its September
Interim Outlook.
3
Beyond the virus trajectory, the top
risks to the recovery have started to
change from a feared delayed wave of
bankruptcies to policy mistakes in managing
evolving inflation dynamics, especially
the repercussions on financial markets in
emerging economies.
5
Chief Economists Outlook
Bankruptcies
Earlier this year, as noted in our June
Outlook, potential sources of risk that
might derail the recovery, but for which little
data was available at the time, included a
delayed wave of bankruptcies. At the same
time, there was a fear that an overextension
of government support would keep unviable
firms artificially alive.
Five months on, there is new evidence
on the number of bankruptcies and the
effect in advanced economies of fiscal
policy in containing the worst of the
fallout. Recent empirical work suggests
that fiscal measures were successful in
treading the fine line between averting both
bankruptcies and zombification of firms.
4
For small and medium-sized enterprises
(SMEs), where the risk of failure was
highest, the study finds that failure rates
of SMEs increased by 4.3 percentage
points, when they would have increased by
4 Gourinchas et al., 2021.
5 Bloomberg, 2021.
9 percentage points without government
support (significantly more so in emerging
markets). In advanced economies the failure
rate even decreased. The counterfactual
for business failures in 2021 without policy
support further suggests that failures
would have been only marginally higher
than they were this year, implying that the
initial emergency support did not lead to
significant zombification of firms. Overall, the
effect of stimulus packages was found to
be concentrated on the domestic economy,
with few positive spillovers internationally.
Even though the feared wave of
bankruptcies has so far not materialized,
and projections suggest that the
number of failed firms being kept artificially
alive is low, some central banks are said
to be preparing additional backstops in
the form of bond-buying programmes to
safeguard against any potential troubles and
further reduce the risk of a failed phase-out
of emergency measures.
5
What is your global growth forecast for 2021?
Source: Chief Economists Survey, October 2021
Less than
4.5%
October survey
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
More than
6.5%
4.5-5% 4.5-5% 5.5-6% 6-6.5%
June survey
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